Unemployment total falls by 9.3% in Q1

maninasia

djpbarry wrote: »

Well, Ireland is still taking in about 50,000 immigrants per year. They must be coming for something.

It doesn't count for much when 300,000 emigrated in 4 years, the majority being youth but also significant numbers of older folks.

maninasia

djpbarry wrote: »

Obviously. But the only country in the top 10 of the UNHDI with a significant population of Canadians is the US, so I guess that means Norway, Australia, The Netherlands, Germany, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland and Japan are are all terrible places to live, relative to Canada? Or perhaps there was some other point you were trying to make?

My point was that it's no use being in the top 10 or whatever of the UN list when you can't get a job and live in your own country. So Ireland is a great country...for the people who can remain in it.

None of the other countries above suffer from the type of emigration and vicious economic cycles we repeat again, in particular the youth emigration component.

I'll applaud the turn around when it happens, but I just don't see the evidence for that yet. This is bad because it's going on 6 years since things went pear shaped, it's taking too long and the deficit is still piling up.

djpbarry

maninasia wrote: »

It doesn't count for much when 300,000 emigrated in 4 years, the majority being youth but also significant numbers of older folks.

maninasia wrote: »

So Ireland is a great country...for the people who can remain in it.

Well, that’s kind of the point. If you’re a construction worker, you’re not going to have much luck finding work in Ireland right now, it’s not going to seem like a great place to be and emigrating’s going to look like a good option. But, if you’re a software developer (for example), then Dublin beats a lot of cities in the world for opportunities at the moment and is likely attracting a significant number of overseas workers. Then there’s a significant number of people who sit somewhere between those two stools and choose to emigrate (that would be the category that I, and many other Irish people in London, fit into).

Personally, I’ve never really bought into the big emigration sob story – better to emigrate than sit at home doing nothing. Many kids in the UK opt for the latter.

The same is going to be true of anywhere. Canada may not have as many unemployed construction workers as Ireland does, but still, if you’re unemployed in Montreal in the middle of winter, it’s going to seem like a pretty miserable place.

antoobrien

maninasia wrote: »

It doesn't count for much when 300,000 emigrated in 4 years, the majority being youth but also significant numbers of older folks.

How many of those 300,000 were foreigners who came here to work for a few years and how many were Irish. I know a few people who went home to various countires to start/be with their families (from jobs) that are being counted in those figures.

gurramok

antoobrien wrote: »

How many of those 300,000 were foreigners who came here to work for a few years and how many were Irish. I know a few people who went home to various countires to start/be with their families (from jobs) that are being counted in those figures.

Have a read on who's who. http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2012/popmig_2012.pdf

The number of people between the ages of 15-30 have decreased by 120,000 between 2006 and 2013. Helps reduce those unemployment figures, the aul safety valve.

antoobrien

gurramok wrote: »

The number of people between the ages of 15-30 have decreased by 120,000 between 2006 and 2013. Helps reduce those unemployment figures, the aul safety valve.

Yeah, many of those 15-30 will have been foreign workers who (a) grew out of that category (b) were foreign construction workers who left the country when building took a hit.

djpbarry

gurramok wrote: »

Have a read on who's who. http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2012/popmig_2012.pdf

The number of people between the ages of 15-30 have decreased by 120,000 between 2006 and 2013. Helps reduce those unemployment figures, the aul safety valve.

Why do people assume that an emigrant would have been unemployed had they remained in Ireland?

Geuze

antoobrien wrote: »

How many of those 300,000 were foreigners who came here to work for a few years and how many were Irish. I know a few people who went home to various countires to start/be with their families (from jobs) that are being counted in those figures.

FTA69

djpbarry wrote: »

Why do people assume that an emigrant would have been unemployed had they remained in Ireland?

Of course everyone is different but there is no denying that the return of emigration has come on the back of a lack of jobs and opportunity for people. As much as Mary Coughlan would have us believe they're all off on a long holiday the fact remains that mass unemployment amongst the youth is what's driving emigration.

gurramok

antoobrien wrote: »

Yeah, many of those 15-30 will have been foreign workers who (a) grew out of that category (b) were foreign construction workers who left the country when building took a hit.

Read the report, Geuze has posted a chart. The trend for the Irish migrants is for the young to emigrate while some older Irish return.

djpbarry wrote: »

Why do people assume that an emigrant would have been unemployed had they remained in Ireland?

With full time employment down in the last quarter and mostly stagnant overall in the last year or so, there is not much hope or the level of jobs available to meet the demand of the young.

antoobrien

gurramok wrote: »

Read the report, Geuze has posted a chart. The trend for the Irish migrants is for the young to emigrate while some older Irish return.

The trend is not what I've observed. I've observed many foreign born people going home, leaving jobs to do so, but the young Irish who have gone away are largely on working holidays and they're coming back.

Now you can argue (and probably will) that for these people the attempt to bail out failed, but I know a few dozen people - including one of my brothers - who have gone away over the past 5 years and the plan was not to stay away, but to come back. It's interesting to see these people being classed as emigrants where a mere 5 years ago they weren't.

gurramok

Of course they maybe on working holidays, thing is they maybe forced to go on working holidays in order to find work and then come back in the hope of a jobs pick up here. That too is keeping with the CSO stats as well as the permanent emigration.

I too have seen foreign people go home in my IT area, they have been replaced by other foreigners and skilled Irish in their specialty fields, all around aged 30 or higher. Interestingly there is no-one in my workplace under aged 28!(only a tiny anecdote i know)

djpbarry

FTA69 wrote: »

Of course everyone is different but there is no denying that the return of emigration has come on the back of a lack of jobs and opportunity for people.

I’m not denying it’s a factor, but lack of opportunity is always going to be an issue in a country the size of Ireland – there’s only so much you can do there. I’m not knocking it – there are some terrific jobs in Ireland that you won’t find elsewhere. But generally speaking, regardless of the prevailing economic climate, options are going to be limited in a country with only 4.5 million people.

In my opinion (and I accept this is purely anecdotal), a big factor in driving Irish emigration is perception. There is a general consensus in Ireland that “everything’s ****ed” and emigration is the only option open – you see this a lot on fora on this site. Kids have given up on finding a job in Ireland before they’ve even started looking.

Related to this, I think unrealistic expectations are an issue - (again, anecdotally) there seems to be a common belief that salaries in Ireland have deteriorated drastically and there’s much more money to be made in the UK, Canada, Australia or wherever.

All-in-all, I think it’s far too simplistic to draw the conclusion that “everything’s ****ed for the poor kids” simply because emigration is high at present. As I said above, the fact that immigration is still far higher than anything Ireland experienced in the 80’s or 90’s suggests that there are jobs being left behind by those emigrants, either because they’re not qualified for them, or they don’t want them.

FTA69 wrote: »

As much as Mary Coughlan would have us believe they're all off on a long holiday the fact remains that mass unemployment amongst the youth is what's driving emigration.

Well, I see plenty of Irish kids around South London who are definitely enjoying themselves!

But anyway, if mass unemployment is what’s driving young people from Ireland, what the hell are they doing migrating to the UK, which has an even bigger youth unemployment problem?

antoobrien

gurramok wrote: »

Of course they maybe on working holidays, thing is they maybe forced to go on working holidays in order to find work

If you knew anything about the visa process you wouldn't make comments like that. You have to have a certain amount in the bank etc.

gurramok wrote: »

I too have seen foreign people go home in my IT area, they have been replaced by other foreigners and skilled Irish in their specialty fields, all around aged 30 or higher. Interestingly there is no-one in my workplace under aged 28!(only a tiny anecdote i know)

That's not that uncommon in IT as many companies won't hire "inexperienced" staff. I know of several companies in Dublin that will only higher senior engineers or higher.

gurramok

antoobrien wrote: »

If you knew anything about the visa process you wouldn't make comments like that. You have to have a certain amount in the bank etc.

It hasn't stopped thousands going to Canada\Australia, they find the money from somewhere.
"Young Irish snap up 6,300 Canadian work visas" http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/young-irish-snap-up-6300-canadian-work-visas-221543.html
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/many-unaware-they-are-eligible-for-australia-visa-177921.html

15,000 on working holiday visas in Australia.
http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/generationemigration/2013/02/22/number-of-irish-on-australian-working-holiday-visas-falls-dramatically/

Up to 20,000 students and graduates for the US http://www.migrantproject.ie/documents/New12MonthWorkandTravelVisatoUSA-CMPApril2009_000.pdf

antoobrien

gurramok wrote: »

It hasn't stopped thousands going to Canada\Australia, they find the money from somewhere.
"Young Irish snap up 6,300 Canadian work visas" http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/young-irish-snap-up-6300-canadian-work-visas-221543.html
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/many-unaware-they-are-eligible-for-australia-visa-177921.html

15,000 on working holiday visas in Australia.
http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/generationemigration/2013/02/22/number-of-irish-on-australian-working-holiday-visas-falls-dramatically/

Up to 20,000 students and graduates for the US http://www.migrantproject.ie/documents/New12MonthWorkandTravelVisatoUSA-CMPApril2009_000.pdf

Those people often have to have as much as 10k saved to prove that they can support themselves.

maninasia

djpbarry wrote: »

In my opinion (and I accept this is purely anecdotal), a big factor in driving Irish emigration is perception. There is a general consensus in Ireland that “everything’s ****ed” and emigration is the only option open – you see this a lot on fora on this site. Kids have given up on finding a job in Ireland before they’ve even started looking.

..........

All-in-all, I think it’s far too simplistic to draw the conclusion that “everything’s ****ed for the poor kids” simply because emigration is high at present. As I said above, the fact that immigration is still far higher than anything Ireland experienced in the 80’s or 90’s suggests that there are jobs being left behind by those emigrants, either because they’re not qualified for them, or they don’t want them.
Well, I see plenty of Irish kids around South London who are definitely enjoying themselves!

But anyway, if mass unemployment is what’s driving young people from Ireland, what the hell are they doing migrating to the UK, which has an even bigger youth unemployment problem?

I'd rather listen to the anecdotes of younger graduates and people from the construction or engineering industry etc where there are basically NO jobs. Not only that but you are completely forgetting about the hiring freeze for public workers beyond a select few in the medical profession etc (funnily enough Irish medical workers are also leaving in droves). So there is none of the usual churn where new graduates could start on a chosen career..be it police, firemen, media folk, teachers..the list goes on and on. This is far from normal.

The only industry that is buoyant is IT but that is the same around the world and a lot of those workers are foreigners...fairly specialist.

The UK is in quite a strange situation right now. Unlike previous recessions unemployment hasn't really picked up, but wages are stagnant or even receding. So conditions are not great but there is the churn with people coming and going which opens up opportunities. Also there is the UK and there is London. Two different things.

maninasia

djpbarry wrote: »

Why do people assume that an emigrant would have been unemployed had they remained in Ireland?

They wouldn't neccessarily have remained unemployed, and yet many would have been unemployed, or they wouldn't have emigrated.

Some emigrated (travelled), will return, and probably feck off again when there is not much work there for them or none at all in the areas they would like to work in.

sock puppet

maninasia wrote: »

I'd rather listen to the anecdotes of younger graduates and people from the construction or engineering industry etc where there are basically NO jobs. Not only that but you are completely forgetting about the hiring freeze for public workers beyond a select few in the medical profession etc (funnily enough Irish medical workers are also leaving in droves). So there is none of the usual churn where new graduates could start on a chosen career..be it police, firemen, media folk, teachers..the list goes on and on. This is far from normal.

The only industry that is buoyant is IT but that is the same around the world and a lot of those workers are foreigners...fairly specialist.

The UK is in quite a strange situation right now. Unlike previous recessions unemployment hasn't really picked up, but wages are stagnant or even receding. So conditions are not great but there is the churn with people coming and going which opens up opportunities. Also there is the UK and there is London. Two different things.

I have friends doing construction related degrees and their Irish job prospects are pretty dismal alright. Teachers are generally able to scrape by on short term contracts and substitution work. Not ideal though. I'd disagree with engineering. It's such a broad and respected degree that they can work in many different industries. In fact if you're unsure about what you want to do for your career I'd say it's one of the best degrees to do.

maninasia wrote: »

They wouldn't neccessarily have remained unemployed, and yet many would have been unemployed, or they wouldn't have emigrated.

Some emigrated (travelled), will return, and probably feck off again when there is not much work there for them or none at all in the areas they would like to work in.

What djpbarry is saying though is that in some areas there never has been work in Ireland in certain areas, nor is it likely there ever will be. I doubt whether it's one of the main reasons for emigration though.

djpbarry

maninasia wrote: »

I'd rather listen to the anecdotes of younger graduates and people from the construction or engineering industry etc where there are basically NO jobs.

First of all, you have no idea how old I am or what I do. Secondly, “engineering industry” is an incredibly broad term, but there most definitely are jobs for engineers in Ireland right now.

maninasia wrote: »

This is far from normal

At what point did I describe the immigration/emigration situation in Ireland right now as in any way “normal”?

maninasia wrote: »

The only industry that is buoyant is IT...

Nonsense. The food, pharmaceutical and medical devices industries, for example, are all performing strongly in Ireland.

maninasia

djpbarry wrote: »

At what point did I describe the immigration/emigration situation in Ireland right now as in any way “normal”?

The fairly consistent line you take of sure 'there can't be jobs for all of them in our little country'.

I’m not denying it’s a factor, but lack of opportunity is always going to be an issue in a country the size of Ireland – there’s only so much you can do there. I’m not knocking it – there are some terrific jobs in Ireland that you won’t find elsewhere. But generally speaking, regardless of the prevailing economic climate, options are going to be limited in a country with only 4.5 million people.

That line of reasoning. It's not true, there are plenty of small countries that do offer more stable employment and much lower unemployment figures overall over time. Singapore being a good example. They are a trading hub like Ireland and their economic policies have generated stable economic growth and employment for decades. They roll with the times and plan ahead for the future.

Now who is to blame for our unemployment mismatches and boom bust economy, it's a more complex discussion.



Pharma is not doing great, medical devices is running along okay as a mixed bag and food is probably the star at the moment.

It's not a normal situation to have common civil service position embargoed for years on end, and to have this repeated at least twice in modern history. This is definitely an oddity. I mean there can be lack of turnover in countries with low population growth or financial difficulties but complete embargoes on hiring is very rare.

New graduate teachers have almost no chance of getting a full-time position, even though our population is increasing. Kids need more teachers, teachers need jobs. No money..so no jobs and no extra teachers for the kids. Compete cock-up and abnormal situation.

As for engineers, all construction related engineers I know from Ireland have emigrated, so have all the architects. I'm talking about guys with 10+ years experience. All of them. Again..bizarre and unsettling. But they just got on with it and eventually moved overseas when things dragged on and on with no turnaround in sight.

There are a lot of things that are not normal so please let's get away from the 'we are a small country and can't provide employment for all' line of reasoning.

djpbarry

maninasia wrote: »

The fairly consistent line you take of sure 'there can't be jobs for all of them in our little country'.

It is true. You can argue otherwise all you like, but the fact is an economy with only 4.5 million people can only support so many industries.

maninasia wrote: »

That line of reasoning. It's not true, there are plenty of small countries that do offer more stable employment and much lower unemployment figures overall over time. Singapore being a good example.

First of all, there are an estimated 200,000 Singaporeans living outside Singapore - I've met quite a few here in London.

Secondly, are you saying that no matter what career I wanted to pursue, Singapore's a great place to be?

maninasia wrote: »

As for engineers, all construction related engineers I know from Ireland have emigrated, so have all the architects.

What about all the other types of engineers?

maninasia

It's normal for a certain number of people to move around, that's true. It's not normal for a country to have 50% unemployment among graduates and youth (or whatever it's running at these days after massaging through various 'training and intern' schemes) and massive emigration of graduates.

The point is not whether people will move around, it's whether they need to or not and the relative scale and why that happens? But please ignore my point about Singapore being a small open economy which is managed well and provides plenty of employment opportunities for it's citizens.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sn.html
It states here that the unemployment rate is 2%!

Youth unemployment - 6.7%
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/singapores-youth-unemployment-rate-one-the-worlds-lowest-tan-chuan-jin


Singapore has consistently moved with the times, establishing diverse industries in manufacturing, logistics, petrochemicals and finance and now becoming a regional tourism, conference and gambling hub. It really proves the lie to the statement above.

It's clear most of emigration from Ireland is economic related as it correlates strongly with the boom to bust period.

As for other types of engineers in Ireland, I'm not very familiar with that but I know electrical engineers are not as in demand as they once were.

djpbarry

maninasia wrote: »

It's normal for a certain number of people to move around, that's true. It's not normal for a country to have 50% unemployment among graduates and youth (or whatever it's running at these days after massaging through various 'training and intern' schemes) and massive emigration of graduates.

Once again, I never said that it was normal.

maninasia wrote: »

But please ignore my point about Singapore being a small open economy which is managed well...

Through canings and executions?

Chris_5339762

sock puppet wrote: »

I'd disagree with engineering. It's such a broad and respected degree that they can work in many different industries. In fact if you're unsure about what you want to do for your career I'd say it's one of the best degrees to do.

I'd say the opposite... engineering is too broad and companies are looking for someone more specialised. They'd have to do a lot more than just a degree to get anywhere decent.

maninasia

djpbarry wrote: »

Once again, I never said that it was normal.
Through canings and executions?

Absolutely irrelevant to the point of this discussion.

djpbarry

maninasia wrote: »

Absolutely irrelevant to the point of this discussion.

Of course it's relevant. You're singing the praises of an autocracy with a very questionable human rights record - their success has come at a price.

maninasia

It's irrelevant and a distraction to the focus of discussion here.

I don't care about your political views, and your views are not necessarily shared by others nor are necessarily superior to others.

These are the statistics that matter so you don't distract people from the point that 'small countries cannot provide full employment'. Done. Dusted.


Singapore


GDP - per capita (PPP):

$61,400 (2012 est.)
country comparison to the world: 7
$61,700 (2011 est.)
$60,100 (2010 est.)
note: data are in 2012 US dollars
GDP - composition by sector:

agriculture: 0%
industry: 26.8%
services: 73.2% (2012 est.)
Labor force:

3.618 million
country comparison to the world: 97
note: excludes non-residents (2012 est.)
Labor force - by occupation:

agriculture: 0.1%
industry: 19.6%
services: 80.3%
note: excludes non-residents (2011)
Unemployment rate:
2% (2012 est.)
country comparison to the world: 12
2% (2011 est.)

sock puppet

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

I'd say the opposite... engineering is too broad and companies are looking for someone more specialised. They'd have to do a lot more than just a degree to get anywhere decent.

Well if they don't want to work as an engineer and feel their degree is too broad there are a number of masters courses that are open to engineers. Many of the technical courses are also subsidised by the EU. I didn't do engineering so I'm not an expert on it but I know quite a few and have met a lot at interviews and they seem to be having a lot of success. Think I remember Accenture saying that around half their intake these days are engineers!

ardmacha

It's not normal for a country to have 50% unemployment among graduates and youth (or whatever it's running at these days after massaging through various 'training and intern' schemes) and massive emigration of graduates.

Please point to one piece of evidence of 50% unemployment among graduates generally, unless you count the day after they graduate.
Some types of graduates have difficulties, others do not.