Your property questions answered...

HouseHunter13

http://www.independent.ie/blog/your-property-questions-answered-in-a-live-web-chat-29327591.html

Watch a replay of our live video chat with property expert Karl Deeter, where he answered readers’ questions and gave his outlook on the state of the market.
The discussion comes after a poll of readers on Independent.ie yesterday found a small majority believe the property market has yet to hit bottom.
Just over 57pc of those who took part in yesterday’s poll felt the worst is not over, but 42pc said now was the time to buy.

- In Dublin the bottom was last year

- Now is the time to buy in Dublin

- Cork and Galway also in the Dublin Category

- The rest of the country is fecked

- Banks are lending just carefully

- Housing stock diminished in Dublin

- Lots of houses where people don't want to live for economic reasons

- Transactions are up

- AIB & BOI should be the lenders of choice


Now I'm far from an expert so I thought I'd ask what people here think of the this live web chat and what is being said. I'm currently looking to buy in the D15 area and I have noticed an increase in asking price and a dismal stock in the area but have yet to see these asking price rises translate greatly to the PPR...

Do you sit tight and hope things loosen up later this year, possibly early next year or get what you can now?

Any advice welcome and also comments on the web chat too

Thanks

Galego

Does the indo now have a crystal ball and is able to see in the future?

OU812

Galego wrote: »

Does the indo now have a crystal ball and is able to see in the future?

Nope. But it does have a property section that's been getting thinner & thinner.

HouseHunter13

Galego wrote: »

Does the indo now have a crystal ball and is able to see in the future?

I don't know, I hope not, as the article was a little disheartening seeing that I'd be getting priced out of what I am looking for which is a nationally averaged priced semi d...

The indo article on Saturday seemed very optimistic but when I look around at what's going on in the country I find it very hard to share that opinion. Although even Charlie Weston couldn't find any positives for where I'm looking so there might be hope for me yet!!

gurramok

HouseHunter13 wrote: »

I'm currently looking to buy in the D15 area and I have noticed an increase in asking price and a dismal stock in the area but have yet to see these asking price rises translate greatly to the PPR...

You're not looking hard enough, plenty of asking price drops still occurring in D15. Below is the list from the first page of myhome.ie. At least 90% of houses in D15 are still seeing asking price drops.


Locality:

No 10 Blackwood Crescent,Ongar Chase, Ongar, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -2.44% €410,000 → €400,000
7 Jun
167a Clonsilla Road, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -2.86% €349,950 → €339,950
5 Jun
33 Cherryfield Court, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€5,000 -4% €125,000 → €120,000
31 May
23 Warrenstown Grove, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€20,000 -9.3% €215,000 → €195,000
31 May
54 Latchford Square, Clonee, Dublin 15
€29,000 25.11% €115,500 → €144,500
31 May
7 Portersgate Heights, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€13,000 -4.36% €298,000 → €285,000
29 May
70 Windermere, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -4.17% €240,000 → €230,000
29 May
St Martins Bungalow, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€55,000 -11.46% €480,000 → €425,000
29 May
70 Portersfield, Clonsilla Road, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -6.9% €145,000 → €135,000
24 May
27 Luttrellstown Heights, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€20,000 -6.25% €320,000 → €300,000
21 May
31 Coolmine Boulevard, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -3.86% €259,000 → €249,000
17 May
39 Castleknock Way, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€11,000 -2.24% €490,000 → €479,000
16 May
15 The Meadows, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -5.71% €175,000 → €165,000
16 May
No. 29 Bantry Square, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€7,000 -4.83% €145,000 → €138,000
14 May
15 Kirkpatrick Drive, Castleknock, Dublin 15
€20,000 6.67% €300,000 → €320,000
14 May
15 Kirkpatrick Drive, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€50,000 -14.29% €350,000 → €300,000
13 May
Ard Cluain, Clonee, Dublin 15
€25,000 33.36% €74,950 → €99,950
13 May
70 Windermere, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -4% €250,000 → €240,000
9 May
29 Bealing Village, Tyrrelstown, Dublin 15
-€15,000 -9.09% €164,950 → €149,950
8 May
60 Luttrellstown Way, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€49,000 -8.77% €559,000 → €510,000
8 May
14 Donn Rua, Main Street, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€20,000 -8.51% €235,000 → €215,000
7 May
2 Deerhaven View, Clonee, Dublin 15
-€9,050 -4.79% €189,000 → €179,950
7 May
Alderwood , Hollystown, Dublin 15
-€70,000 -21.88% €320,000 → €250,000
30 Apr
29 Bealing Village, Tyrrelstown, Dublin 15
-€15,000 -8.34% €179,950 → €164,950
29 Apr
4 Mulberry Crescent, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€20,000 -6.25% €320,000 → €300,000
26 Apr
13 Ballentree Square, Tyrrelstown, Dublin 15
-€19,000 -13.67% €139,000 → €120,000
26 Apr
13 The Grove, Hunters Run, Clonee, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -4.02% €249,000 → €239,000
25 Apr
, Tyrrelstown, Dublin 15
-€6,000 -3.24% €185,000 → €179,000
25 Apr
63 Tory Square, Waterville, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€5,000 -3.03% €165,000 → €160,000
23 Apr
, Tyrrelstown, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -5.13% €195,000 → €185,000
18 Apr
6 Mount Eustace Rise, Tyrrelstown, Dublin 15
-€18,000 -9.14% €197,000 → €179,000
17 Apr
60 Luttrellstown Way, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€30,000 -5.09% €589,000 → €559,000
17 Apr
105 Lohunda Park, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€25,000 -9.62% €260,000 → €235,000
16 Apr
40 Skelligs Court, Waterville, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -5.72% €174,950 → €164,950
15 Apr
18 Luttrell Park Crescent, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€24,000 -8.03% €299,000 → €275,000
15 Apr
1 Beechfield Heights, Clonee, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -5.41% €185,000 → €175,000
15 Apr
33 Ashfield Park, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€21,000 -8.75% €240,000 → €219,000
11 Apr
Allendale Square, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€6,000 -3.43% €175,000 → €169,000
11 Apr
48 Castlecurragh Vale , Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€5,000 -7.15% €69,950 → €64,950
5 Apr
11 Phoenix Court, Castleknock, Dublin 15
€10,000 2.86% €350,000 → €360,000
4 Apr
4 Skelligs Court, Waterville, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€5,000 -4.17% €119,950 → €114,950
4 Apr
6 Elmwood, Hartstown, Dublin 15
-€31,000 -17.22% €180,000 → €149,000
3 Apr
63 Summerfield Rise, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€10,000 -3.85% €260,000 → €250,000
3 Apr
7 Hazelwood Crescent, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€5,000 -2.78% €179,950 → €174,950
2 Apr
7 Portersgate Heights, Clonsilla, Dublin 15
-€11,000 -3.56% €309,000 → €298,000
26 Mar
17 Whites Gate, Farmleigh Woods, Whites Road, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€505,000 -33.67% €1,500,000 → €995,000
19 Mar
2 Avon Lodge, Main St,, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€7,000 -4.7% €149,000 → €142,000
15 Mar
2 Avon Lodge, Main Street, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
-€7,000 -4.7% €149,000 → €142,000
15 Mar
15 Annfield Court, Castleknock, Dublin 15
-€16,000 -9.14% €175,000 → €159,000
8 Mar
15 Saddlers Avenue, Mulhuddart, Dublin 15
-€5,000 -2.78% €179,950 → €174,950
8 Ma

HouseHunter13

gurramok wrote: »

You're not looking hard enough, plenty of asking price drops still occurring in D15. Below is the list from the first page of myhome.ie. At least 90% of houses in D15 are still seeing asking price drops.

price drops yes but castleknock is a little out of my price range unfortunately. at them moment the criteria i'm looking for is giving 14 results and half them are sold/sale agreed, the others are in such bad condition they would have to pay me to live in them or in cloud cuckoo land with the asking price. its funny as 6 months ago there were 10 pages of results and more reasonable (asking) prices.

the only thing i'm taking comfort from now is the PPR so no matter what EA are telling you, its there in black in white.

Galego

HouseHunter13 wrote: »

price drops yes but castleknock is a little out of my price range unfortunately. at them moment the criteria i'm looking for is giving 14 results and half them are sold/sale agreed, the others are in such bad condition they would have to pay me to live in them or in cloud cuckoo land with the asking price. its funny as 6 months ago there were 10 pages of results and more reasonable (asking) prices.

the only thing i'm taking comfort from now is the PPR so no matter what EA are telling you, its there in black in white.

Are you of those awaiting for a 5 bedrooms detached house in a good Castleknock area under 250k eur?

HouseHunter13

Galego wrote: »

Are you of those awaiting for a 5 bedrooms detached house in a good Castleknock area under 250k eur?

no i'm not that deluded but I am waiting for a 3 bed semi in the harstown/huntstown/clone for under 170k, which seemed to be easy to come by until recently, I don't think its too much to ask?

Galego

HouseHunter13 wrote: »

no i'm not that deluded but I am waiting for a 3 bed semi in the harstown/huntstown/clone for under 170k, which seemed to be easy to come by until recently, I don't think its too much to ask?

Sorry, did not understand you well in your previous post with your comments about Castleknow.

I know Blanch fairly well and 170k eur should get you a 3 semi-d no bother. Be patience and sit tight there will be more stock to come soon.

By the way, do not get put off by those asking prices. Those houses will not sell for any near that.

HouseHunter13

Galego wrote: »

Sorry, did not understand you well in your previous post with your comments about Castleknow.

I know Blanch fairly well and 170k eur should get you a 3 semi-d no bother. Be patience and sit tight there will be more stock to come soon.

By the way, do not get put off by those asking prices. Those houses will not sell for any near that.

no problem, sorry if I wasn't clear

I keep telling myself sit tight but when you read papers and listen to EAs they knock your confidence and my negotiation skills are limited to say the least! You get the feeling if you lowball them a figure that you will be laughed at or even hung up on...

guess i'm looking for reassurance

the groutch

Karl Deeter works for a mortgage brokers, he's just another vested interest trying to talk up the market.

NIMAN

HouseHunter13 wrote: »

I don't know, I hope not, as the article was a little disheartening seeing that I'd be getting priced out of what I am looking for which is a nationally averaged priced semi d...

The indo article on Saturday seemed very optimistic but when I look around at what's going on in the country I find it very hard to share that opinion. Although even Charlie Weston couldn't find any positives for where I'm looking so there might be hope for me yet!!

... so is the madness in the early stages of starting all over again?

uberalles

Galego wrote: »

Sorry, did not understand you well in your previous post with your comments about Castleknow.

I know Blanch fairly well and 170k eur should get you a 3 semi-d no bother. Be patience and sit tight there will be more stock to come soon.

By the way, do not get put off by those asking prices. Those houses will not sell for any near that.

How sure are you?

matt-dublin

Also just because the asking price is dropping doesn't mean the sale price is.

I've a few friends trying to buy but when they put offers in at or on the asking price they've been told they've been outbid by as much as 10% (happened 3 times now)

Their budget is 350 and asking prices of about 330-340 is what they've been hitting at, meaning they're going for the 360 odd marker.

And it not a case of the agents trying to make a few more bob as the sale agreed signs appear within days

StillWaters

NIMAN wrote: »

... so is the madness in the early stages of starting all over again?

It's past the early stages IMO.

Villa05

Just for balance and knowing that the Indo was one of the biggest property cheerleader during the bubble. They have also been calling the bottom every year for the past 5 years.

I would like to put forward a view from a genuine independent economist, Cormac Lucey, he believes a further 20 to 50% fall in price from current levels is a realistic scenario. This view would be shared by another independent economist, Morgan Kelly, who has called it correctly since the start of the crisis. Anyone considering buying should definitely read and understand there views

http://cormaclucey.blogspot.ie/2013/06/normal-0-false-false-false-en-ie-x-none.html

Drawing these Disparate Factors Together
Putting these various factors together yields the following overview:

Factors that May Depress Residential Property Prices
Weak bank lending
Weak public finances
Weak future income growth
High commercial property rental yields
Suppression of supply
Increased supply of properties for sale as banks act against delinquent borrowers
Factors that May Boost Residential Property Prices
Money supply growth
Global quantitative easing
Increasing residential property prices
The balance of these “Other Factors” does not cause me to change my view that Irish house prices are set for further decline. If anything, it reinforces me in my view that significant further residential property prices may be ahead.
Conclusion
Making predictions about the future of Irish property prices is a necessarily hazardous undertaking. But, despite a recent apparent stabilisation, I believe that Irish residential property prices are still far from an enduring bottom.

It would not surprise me to see them drop by a further 30-40% from current levels. If recent rent increases were to tail off, the resulting residential property price fall might even head towards 50%.


June 9th 2013

HouseHunter13

NIMAN wrote: »

... so is the madness in the early stages of starting all over again?

I don't know if that was a rhetorical question but I think there is a lot of opinion trying to kick start it in the media, 'a new bubble has begun' was the phrase that stuck in my mind after reading the property piece in Saturdays indo so its bound to have some effect on potential buyers