Where should the prices be

Tigerandahalf

Well maybe we are paying the price for pushing women into the workplace. If prices continue to increase one partner will simply have to stay at home. Given how few work opportunities and promotions are out there now it may make sense. However v few fellas would like to take that option.

PhilMcGee

coolemon wrote: »

Perhaps if a lot of those who bought and gambled and thought house prices were going to go up forever had looked at that graph, then yes, they could have been living it up.

The point of the graph is that the variables are smoothened over time. There are fluctuations in population, supply, family formation, employment. But this can be expected in a market system. The point is that there is a market equilibrium, and that that equilibrium would correspond to a smoothened trend over time.

I wasnt taking issue with whats on the graph.
What I dont agree with is this very unscientific statement. Might be OK for the Junior cert though, but thats about it. You wont be living in the Bahamas on that methodology

coolemon wrote: »

It might be useful to look at the graph below. Get your MS Paint out and extend the yearly segments to 2013+, and continue the rate of increase of the blue line from 1977 to about 1994.

StillWaters

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Well maybe we are paying the price for pushing women into the workplace.

Off topic, but noone pushed women into the workforce. Women willingly availed of increased employment opportunities in the 90s and 00s. Believe it or not, many women prefer to work than stay at home, build careers and have independence.

jay0109

StillWaters wrote: »

Off topic, but noone pushed women into the workforce. Women willingly availed of increased employment opportunities in the 90s and 00s. Believe it or not, many women prefer to work than stay at home, build careers and have independence.

emmm, Charlie McCreevy certainly give them a nudge out the door to work by introducing individualisation into the tax system.

S McCarrick- I agree. Only those out of work will be able to have kids soon. What does that say about the system we have!
We currently have 2 under the age of 3. The next one will be mid next year all going well. Missus will get her 9 months maternity pay out of her company and will probably then pack in the job...as #3 pushes her over the edge of it costing more in childcare then she takes home

StillWaters

jay0109 wrote: »

emmm, Charlie McCreevy certainly give them a nudge out the door to work by introducing individualisation into the tax system.

S McCarrick- I agree. Only those out of work will be able to have kids soon. What does that say about the system we have!
We currently have 2 under the age of 3. The next one will be mid next year all going well. Missus will get her 9 months maternity pay out of her company and will probably then pack in the job...as #3 pushes her over the edge of it costing more in childcare then she takes home

Well yes, he did. There was a labour shortage, we had young women who had availed of free 3rd level, and we had been given lots of money from Europe to invest in Childcare, so it all coincided. However women were not pushed, I find that insulting to women.

I dont see childcare getting more expensive as a result of the creche scandals, in fact I see increased Government investment.

Btw, did you look into getting a childminder to come into your home? Much cheaper than creche for 3.

Tigerandahalf

If childcare requires more gov investment that will mean higher taxes.
This will all feed into less money in people's pockets to purchase a home.
Ideally it would be nice to save enough money to avoid taking out a mortgage. For someone building their own home it would be a possibility as you could build it over a couple of years. For the majority it is not an option. Unless unemployment drops significantly it is hard to see how house prices will increase except for small pockets around the country like desirable areas in the main cities.

jay0109

StillWaters wrote: »

Well yes, he did. There was a labour shortage, we had young women who had availed of free 3rd level, and we had been given lots of money from Europe to invest in Childcare, so it all coincided. However women were not pushed, I find that insulting to women.

I dont see childcare getting more expensive as a result of the creche scandals, in fact I see increased Government investment.

Btw, did you look into getting a childminder to come into your home? Much cheaper than creche for 3.

Increased Govt investment in this climate!!! Can't see that happening. Increased fees as a result of more Govt bureaucracy but which will lead to no discernible changes- that I can certainly see.

Nope, not interested in a childminder. I've seen too many disinterested minders on my travels to want to go that route. I don't think it's good for really young kids...works better with older kids. My opinion of course.
It might cost more for the OH to quit work and mind them herself, but in the long run we feel it'll be in the best interests of the kids.

StillWaters

jay0109 wrote: »

Nope, not interested in a childminder. I've seen too many disinterested minders on my travels to want to go that route. I don't think it's good for really young kids...works better with older kids. My opinion of course.

I can't point you to lots and lots of research that shows the opposite, very young children do best when cared in a mixed age cohort in a home setting. But of course each family knows what is best for their own children, so i wouldn't impose my views. It's all about choice.

PhilMcGee

So we have gone from somehow not only being experts at predicting what property prices "should" be now, to what they "will" be in the future, to how much people earn, to the income per household, to knowing what people outgoings are, to how many kids someone is going to have, to how much they are going to spend on their own individual childcare.

I can see how we are going to be accurate in our analysis of the correct price to put on a house alright.

jay0109

My tuppence on current house prices in the area I'm most familiar with...SCD.

Way overpriced. When you see 4 bed semi's on the outer reaches of Rathfarnham (not a huge size either) looking for 0.5m (14 to 15 times the average wage in this country) and some in need of a fair bit of upgrading......well then you know we still have a major problem with the way prices are.
And don't tell me Dublin/Ireland is 'different'....we've heard that before and see where we ended up

Eric Cartman

south dublin is its own kind of madness though , no matter what stats you bring up , south dublin doesn't conform , those with more money than sense choose to pay far over the odds for the coveted addresses.

jay0109

Eric Cartman wrote: »

south dublin is its own kind of madness though , no matter what stats you bring up , south dublin doesn't conform , those with more money than sense choose to pay far over the odds for the coveted addresses.

I would'nt call Rathfarnham a coveted address. Most of it is ordinary middle class dullness.
But I'm not a native of Dublin so perhaps I don't 'appreciate' the mystic of it all:P

koheim

The_Conductor wrote: »

We're already at the 3rd highest childcare costs in the EU :eek:

What countries in EU, or the world, have a higher childcare than Ireland?? I doubt very much that any other countries pay more than we do in Ireland, but stand to be corrected...

Zamboni

Haha it's great reading about what people think the average wage is.
And without a shadow of a doubt the best source is the CSO, however...
The companies that provide that type of information to the CSO are predominately state bodies and well organised private professional organisations.
You know, the ones that pay higher wages...
Having had direct experience in the completion of these forms for a variety of organisations, I can assure you that the raw data is questionable at best. They are seen as a hassle and bare basics are put in, for example, omitting temp work information.
There is no or little auditing of the information supplied by organisations and the CSO are effectively taking whatever raw data they can get their hands and working with that.
I have no doubt in my mind that the average is skewed and my best guess is that the average industrial gross is more like mid-30's than the quoted €42-43k.
Take CSO stats with a pinch of salt. I know the people that work there do...

kaymin

beeno67 wrote: »

The problem with graphs like this is that people assume the blue line and the red line should both increase at the same rate. They shouldn't though as house prices are a multiple of wages so the gap between the two should be constantly widening.

That's wrong - if the multiple house prices is of wages is constant the gap between the two lines will be constant.

L1011

kaymin wrote: »

That's wrong - if the multiple house prices is of wages is constant the gap between the two lines will be constant.

No, it won't. Extremely simple maths

If average wages are 10,000 and house prices are 4x, they're 40,000. Gap is 30,000

Average wages go to 60,000. House prices now 240,000. Gap is 180,000 - 6x the size.

kaymin

MYOB wrote: »

No, it won't. Extremely simple maths

If average wages are 10,000 and house prices are 4x, they're 40,000. Gap is 30,000

Average wages go to 60,000. House prices now 240,000. Gap is 180,000 - 6x the size.

Obviously not simple enough. The relative gap remains the same and that's what is important i.e. the two lines will always be parallel to eachother. In other words, the gap, when you re-base everything into todays money value will be constant. The chart demonstrated that this gap didn't remain constant during the years 1994 - 2005 and by extending the graph for the period upto 1994 will give you an idea where prices should be today based on historical averages.

L1011

kaymin wrote: »

Obviously not simple enough. The relative gap remains the same and that's what is important i.e. the two lines will always be parallel to eachother. In other words, the gap, when you re-base everything into todays money value will be constant. The chart demonstrated that this gap didn't remain constant during the years 1994 - 2005 and by extending the graph for the period upto 1994 will give you an idea where prices should be today based on historical averages.

No, the lines will not be parallel.

kaymin

MYOB wrote: »

No, the lines will not be parallel.

True, not in absolute values but when rebased into todays money, yes - beeno67 stated 'both [shouldn't] increase at the same rate' but they do - 6x in the example you gave. The point is, such a chart can give an view of how today's prices compare to historical averages.

beeno67

kaymin wrote: »

True, not in absolute values but when rebased into todays money, yes - beeno67 stated 'both [shouldn't] increase at the same rate' but they do - 6x in the example you gave. The point is, such a chart can give an view of how today's prices compare to historical averages.

You need to go away and think about it Kayim. The lines should never be parallel. Also the figures are not "rebased into today's money", that would give a totally different graph.

I agree such charts give a view of today's prices compared to historical averages as long as you remember the lines will never be parallel and the house price line will always be moving away from the wages line when the market has a constant ratio of wages to prices (as was neatly explained by MYOB).

Bigcheeze

Zamboni wrote: »

Haha it's great reading about what people think the average wage is.
And without a shadow of a doubt the best source is the CSO, however...
The companies that provide that type of information to the CSO are predominately state bodies and well organised private professional organisations.
You know, the ones that pay higher wages...
Having had direct experience in the completion of these forms for a variety of organisations, I can assure you that the raw data is questionable at best. They are seen as a hassle and bare basics are put in, for example, omitting temp work information.
There is no or little auditing of the information supplied by organisations and the CSO are effectively taking whatever raw data they can get their hands and working with that.
I have no doubt in my mind that the average is skewed and my best guess is that the average industrial gross is more like mid-30's than the quoted €42-43k.
Take CSO stats with a pinch of salt. I know the people that work there do...

Soooo let me get this right you're asking us to discount the CSO data collected from thousands of organizations and instead rely on the far more reliable anecdotal evidence of people in your office?

Btw I have witnessed CSO make personal visits to very small companies to enforce the data collection.

The Spider

jay0109 wrote: »

I would'nt call Rathfarnham a coveted address. Most of it is ordinary middle class dullness.
But I'm not a native of Dublin so perhaps I don't 'appreciate' the mystic of it all:P

It is dull, that's it's selling point, as is most of South County Dublin, but as an area it doesn't really have dodgy estates, everywhere is relatively safe, so it's an ideal place to bring up a family. You're surrounded by people who could afford there, who are more likely to be professionals and will more than likely have a handle on their kids.

Believe me I grew up outside Dublin but close enough to a huge dodgy estate and I can tell you, if you can avoid living in close proximity to anywhere like that for your kids sake you should.

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

It is dull, that's it's selling point, as is most of South County Dublin, but as an area it doesn't really have dodgy estates, everywhere is relatively safe, so it's an ideal place to bring up a family. You're surrounded by people who could afford there, who are more likely to be professionals and will more than likely have a handle on their kids.

Believe me I grew up outside Dublin but close enough to a huge dodgy estate and I can tell you, if you can avoid living in close proximity to anywhere like that for your kids sake you should.

Why do I think you believe South County Dublin is full of Ross O'Carroll-Kellys ?

Oh btw it isn't only professionals who can bring up kids properly.
Or have a you a very broad definition of professional to include ordinary decent people in ordinary jobs ?

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

Why do I think you believe South County Dublin is full of Ross O'Carroll-Kellys ?

Oh btw it isn't only professionals who can bring up kids properly.
Or have a you a very broad definition of professional to include ordinary decent people in ordinary jobs ?

Nah not only professionals, I'll include skilled workers in whatever industry.

And just read though the below thread or actually watch the program on th tv3 player as an idea of what you want to avoid.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056735264

I don't think it's unreasonable to want to bring your kids up as far away from that as you can, they still may go off the rails, but if they're in a decent area with decent neighbours and a decent school it's less likely to happen.

And as I've said before I don't live in SCD, I've moved further south and commute, however I do know why people pay for it, if any Tom Dick and Harry could buy there, then it wouldn't be desirable, for the above reasons.

I've lived all over Dublin and other areas in Ireland and I can tell you that SCD is one of the safest areas not just in Dublin but in most Urban areas in Ireland.

Electric Sheep

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Well maybe we are paying the price for pushing women into the workplace. If prices continue to increase one partner will simply have to stay at home. Given how few work opportunities and promotions are out there now it may make sense. However v few fellas would like to take that option.

I don't believe women were "pushed" into the marketplace, and I don't think many of us would like to take the option of giving up work to mind the children, leaving us financially dependent on another person who may or may not be reliable. Women have come to realise the importance of financial independence.

jay0109

Electric Sheep wrote: »

I don't believe women were "pushed" into the marketplace, and I don't think many of us would like to take the option of giving up work to mind the children, leaving us financially dependent on another person who may or may not be reliable. Women have come to realise the importance of financial independence.

Some women have, some still want to pack in the job as soon as motherhoood kicks in

The Spider

Electric Sheep wrote: »

I don't believe women were "pushed" into the marketplace, and I don't think many of us would like to take the option of giving up work to mind the children, leaving us financially dependent on another person who may or may not be reliable. Women have come to realise the importance of financial independence.

This is a funny one. I know loads of girls who want kids, problem is they left it too late, concentrated on career, didnt find a man and now most of em have good jobs, no relationship and no possibility of kids any time soon, suppose you have to weigh it up, no kids or partner but a great job, which you can still lose, what's worth more?

StillWaters

The Spider wrote: »

This is a funny one. I know loads of girls who want kids, problem is they left it too late, concentrated on career, didnt find a man and now most of em have good jobs, no relationship and no possibility of kids any time soon, suppose you have to weigh it up, no kids or partner but a great job, which you can still lose, what's worth more?

if these friends are past child bearing age, they are not 'girls'. You do know this is 2013 and women can have both career and family?

The Spider

StillWaters wrote: »

if these friends are past child bearing age, they are not 'girls'. You do know this is 2013 and women can have both career and family?

Yep sure can, my own missus has a great job, and whether someone is male of female never enters my head when hiring, just if they can do the job.

However the point remains, and applies to guys too, however guys have An advantage in that they're not as essentially tied to a biological clock. Although no one wants to be an oul lad in the playground.

Speaking from personal experience, it is a valid point, people who do both great, good stuff,!