N.I census correction,,catholics even closer

gallag

Happyman42 wrote: »

The tap will be slowly turned off and the concensus of 'we're in a better felt hole' will change. Britain is in the process of withdrawing by changing mindsets.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe/osborne-targets-ni-spending-1.1443981
The south will recover economically and will be more attractive, simply because it makes economic sense not to be partitioned from the larger hinterland.

Did you read the article? Its actually pretty positive fo N.I, probably going to hurt N.I less than any other part of our Kingdom, dont forget about the 100billion capital projects that will be announced soon as I am sure N.I will benefit greatly from that, and with the latest news of Ireland slipping back into recession and probably going to need another bale out that your children will have to push onto your grandchildren it would seem your opinion is based in complete fantasy.

gurramok

pablomakaveli wrote: »

But it isn't. You can't base it on such a specific grouping. All it tells us is how people in those two towns feel about it.

The matter would be decided by the populations of the ROI and NI. Also not everyone is a nationalist.

It's a pretty pointless poll that they conducted because it doesn't add anything to their argument. It seems like they picked those two towns because they knew they would deliver the results they wanted for their polls.

You obviously didn't read what I said, I said "Its an indicator of Nationalist opinion", not the entire opinion of the NI population as a whole. Beats the Life and Times survey by a mile.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Can you answer the following?

A nationalist who wants to stay part of the UK is not much of a nationalist.

Iwasfrozen

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

I used the future tense and the imperfective aspect, no conditional.

I presuming you are referring to my wish regarding Unionism being made to be an irrelevance some time in the future? How can anyone provide a link to an aspiration

lol not an internet link I ment a link from the conditional tense (or aspirational as you say) back to reality. Unionism will not be made an irrelevance any time soon and fair enough you may say this is just an aspiration but unless we're dealing in Walter Mitty stuff you have to provide a reasonable link from the aspiration back to reality.

pablomakaveli

gurramok wrote: »

You obviously didn't read what I said, I said "Its an indicator of Nationalist opinion", not the entire opinion of the NI population as a whole. Beats the Life and Times survey by a mile.

I know what you said. It isn't an indicator of Nationalist opinion because it's too small a sample size. It doesn't take account of nationalist opinion outside those two towns nor is everyone a nationalist. And an opinion poll that takes a sample of people across NI and the ROI from all types of political background would give us a better idea because thats ultimately who would vote on it.

The poll you used is by a group with an agenda that used a method that would guarantee the results that suited them. It's a useless poll.

gurramok

pablomakaveli wrote: »

I know what you said. It isn't an indicator of Nationalist opinion because it's too small a sample size. It doesn't take account of nationalist opinion outside those two towns nor is everyone a nationalist. And an opinion poll that takes a sample of people across NI and the ROI from all types of political background would give us a better idea because thats ultimately who would vote on it.

The poll you used is by a group with an agenda that used a method that would guarantee the results that suited them. It's a useless poll.

Nope, it was run with input from all political parties and community groups. Its a poll whose purpose is to gauge opinion of the Nationalist community and now we have it. This electoral poll certifies that the wish for a UI is quite high within the Nationalist community despite all the surveys(not electoral polls) that have been quoted here.

pablomakaveli

gurramok wrote: »

Nope, it was run with input from all political parties and community groups. Its a poll whose purpose is to gauge opinion of the Nationalist community and now we have it. This electoral poll certifies that the wish for a UI is quite high within the Nationalist community despite all the surveys(not electoral polls) that have been quoted here.

As ive said numerous times these two towns don't represent the entire nationalist community.

gurramok

pablomakaveli wrote: »

As ive said numerous times these two towns don't represent the entire nationalist community.

That's in your opinion which is based on what? At least we have valid opinion of 2 Nationalist towns at hand.

pablomakaveli

gurramok wrote: »

That's in your opinion which is based on what? At least we have valid opinion of 2 Nationalist towns at hand.

No thats fact based on the fact that the whole nationalist community doesn't live solely in those two towns.

gurramok

pablomakaveli wrote: »

No thats fact based on the fact that the whole nationalist community doesn't live solely in those two towns.

What? So you have no basis to assume the Nationalist community do not want re-unification?!
As well as this electoral poll, they do vote for UI parties like SDLP and SF.

COYW

gurramok wrote: »

That's in your opinion which is based on what? At least we have valid opinion of 2 Nationalist towns at hand.

Wow, I didn't realise that. Talk about clutching at straws! Ask the same question/s in two Unionist towns and you will get a different response. The BBC Spotlight poll conducted in February, which questioned members of both communities, showed that N.I. is secure as part of the union.

BBC poll article

Also, given that fact that the RoI is currently the laughing stock of Europe; right back in the grips of a recession, compared to the fact that NI is on the brink of receiving a nice big chunk of funding from London, as gallag stated, I would severely question the sanity of any citizen of N.I. who believes that moving away from the UK is a good idea for the foreseeable future.

gurramok

COYW wrote: »

Wow, I didn't realise that. Talk about clutching at straws! Ask the same question/s in two Unionist towns and you will get a different response. The BBC Spotlight poll conducted in February, which questioned members of both communities, showed that N.I. is secure as part of the union.

BBC poll article.

I'd like to see a RTE poll just for balance of state broadcasters. And the electoral poll has a damn more count of people involved than any survey.

Dunno why you say 2 Unionist towns, its damn obvious they would be against it at the moment, its irrelevant to the point at hand that an electoral poll of 2 Nationalist towns found overwhelming desire for a UI.

COYW

gurramok wrote: »

I'd like to see a RTE poll just for balance of state broadcasters. And the electoral poll has a damn more count of people involved than any survey.

Firstly, it's a decision for the people of N.I. first and foremost. If they ever decide that it is something they desire, they it is up to the people of the RoI to evaluate the idea.

Secondly, the electoral poll was of a whopping 1,000 people in the notorious republican heartland of Crossmaglen in South Armagh. It is about as good an indicator as asking the people on the Shankhill.

NinjaK

Good news, lets hope it continues on this trend. The sooner the stolen land returns to Gaelic rule the better.

gurramok

COYW wrote: »

Firstly, it's a decision for the people of N.I. first and foremost. If they ever decide that it is something they desire, they it is up to the people of the RoI to evaluate the idea.

Secondly, the electoral poll was of a whopping 1,000 people in the notorious republican heartland of Crossmaglen in South Armagh. It is about as good an indicator as asking the people on the Shankhill.

Huh? BBC is a British broadcaster. God knows how they performed that poll.

So what if its Crossmaglen? People live there, respect their decision as part of the Nationalist community, its called democracy.

pablomakaveli

gurramok wrote: »

What? So you have no basis to assume the Nationalist community do not want re-unification?!
As well as this electoral poll, they do vote for UI parties like SDLP and SF.

Thats not saying a lot either given that voting is based down along tribal lines in NI.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Huh? BBC is a British broadcaster. God knows how they performed that poll.

So what if its Crossmaglen? People live there, respect their decision as part of the Nationalist community, its called democracy.

If you believe the BBC was biased by all means send them an email. I'm sure they'll be happy to set you right. If you're still not convinced there and think you have a reasonable case Ofcom don't seem to be too busy atm.

gurramok

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Thats not saying a lot either given that voting is based down along tribal lines in NI.

And you reinforce my point, thanks.

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

If you believe the BBC was biased by all means send them an email. I'm sure they'll be happy to set you right. If you're still not convinced there and think you have a reasonable case Ofcom don't seem to be too busy atm.

Selecting randomners based across the region based on religion is well random.

At least the local electoral poll is quite an accurate barometer of opinion within the Nationalist community in contrast to certain surveys.

pablomakaveli

gurramok wrote: »

And you reinforce my point, thanks.

Your twisting my words. A vote for Sinn Fein or SDLP isnt an automatic vote for a UI. But given the only other real options are the DUP or UUP it's not surprising that someone from a nationalist background might feel their vote is better spent on SF or SDLP since they're on the same side so to speak.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Selecting randomners based across the region based on religion is well random.

At least the local electoral poll is quite an accurate barometer of opinion within the Nationalist community in contrast to certain surveys.

Do you understand how randomness works? The idea is since you survey a wide number of people you lower the error associated with selecting a random number of people.

No offence to the good people of Crossmaglen but they don't represent the new urban middle class Catholics who inhabit Derry and Belfast, call themselves Northern Irish and couldn't give two fiddles about unification.

This guy is the face of the new Catholics.

gurramok

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Your twisting my words. A vote for Sinn Fein or SDLP isnt an automatic vote for a UI. But given the only other real options are the DUP or UUP it's not surprising that someone from a nationalist background might feel their vote is better spent on SF or SDLP since they're on the same side so to speak.

They are Nationalist parties and Nationalists want a UI. If they wanted to stay in the UK, they would become Unionists as Iwasfrozen said! http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85279410&postcount=54

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Do you understand how randomness works? The idea is since you survey a wide number of people you lower the error associated with selecting a random number of people.

No offence to the good people of Crossmaglen but they don't represent the new urban middle class Catholics who inhabit Derry and Belfast, call themselves Northern Irish and couldn't give two fiddles about unification.

This guy is the face of the new Catholics.

A survey will never equal an actual electoral poll.

Why are you politicising a prominent golfer? That is not right as politics should not be in sport and I won't raise to your level of using celebs to support my argument.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

A survey will never equal an actual electoral poll.

Why are you politicising a prominent golfer? That is not right as politics should not be in sport and I won't raise to your level of using celebs to support my argument.

No it won't but it is a good indication.

The national issue will ultimately be a question of culture. Celebrities are a powerful medium of transmitting culture and a prominent (and successful) catholic who proudly bears the label Northern Irish will lead many Northern Catholics to the same conclusion.

Rory McIlroy has done more to secure the Union then many unionist politicians.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

No it won't but it is a good indication.

The national issue will ultimately be a question of culture. Celebrities are a powerful medium of transmitting culture and a prominent (and successful) catholic who proudly bears the label Northern Irish will lead many Northern Catholics to the same conclusion.

Rory McIlroy has done more to secure the Union then many unionist politicians.

Good god, I don't think Rory has actually commented on the Union yet and he shouldn't have to like all the other athletes in sports on either side.

You do know there are prominent Protestant Nationalists also?! We even have them here on boards! Why oh why you keep using religion is beyond me, perhaps the media is at fault here influencing your opinion when they keep using religious tags.

If you have to use a celebrity to advance your agenda that means there is desperation in the air.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Good god, I don't think Rory has actually commented on the Union yet and he shouldn't have to like all the other athletes in sports on either side.

You do know there are prominent Protestant Nationalists also?! We even have them here on boards! Why oh why you keep using religion is beyond me, perhaps the media is at fault here influencing your opinion when they keep using religious tags.

If you have to use a celebrity to advance your agenda that means there is desperation in the air.

Wait first of all I entered this thread to admonish another poster for using the Catholic = Nationalist, Protestant = Unionist so I don't know were you got that opinion of me but it's wrong.

Secondly I rely on nothing but facts to prove my position. I merely recognise the importance of culture in the national question and celebrities as being powerful transmitters of culture.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Wait first of all I entered this thread to admonish another poster for using the Catholic = Nationalist, Protestant = Unionist so I don't know were you got that opinion of me but it's wrong.

Secondly I rely on nothing but facts to prove my position. I merely recognise the importance of culture in the national question and celebrities as being powerful transmitters of culture.

Have another look at your post #71

Plenty of religious references there. The culture you mention seems to be religious rather than political.

No offence to the good people of Crossmaglen but they don't represent the new urban middle class Catholics who inhabit Derry and Belfast, call themselves Northern Irish and couldn't give two fiddles about unification.

This guy is the face of the new Catholics.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Have another look at your post #71

Plenty of religious references there. The culture you mention seems to be religious rather than political.

Of course. I'm not going to say nationalist because a nationalist who does not support unification is no true nationalist. The point I was making is many catholics are turning away from nationalism.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Of course. I'm not going to say nationalist because a nationalist who does not support unification is no true nationalist. The point I was making is many catholics are turning away from nationalism.

In that case there would be increased support for Unionist parties. That has not happened.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

In that case there would be increased support for Unionist parties. That has not happened.

Not true because again you have to take in the cultural element. A catholic who has turned away from nationalism is still very unlikely to ever vote for a unionist party. This is why we must be weary of falling into the trap of thinking a vote for a nationalist party equals a vote for unification.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Not true because again you have to take in the cultural element. A catholic who has turned away from nationalism is still very unlikely to ever vote for a unionist party. This is why we must be weary of falling into the trap of thinking a vote for a nationalist party equals a vote for unification.

Who will they vote for then? Alliance me thinks as they have quite a number of on the fence "cultural Catholics" as you may call them.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Who will they vote for then? Alliance me thinks as they have quite a number of on the fence "cultural Catholics" as you may call them.

They wil continue to vote for SF and SDLP as they already do but don't equate a vote for a nationalist party to a vote for unification.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

They wil continue to vote for SF and SDLP as they already do but don't equate a vote for a nationalist party to a vote for unification.

So they are no longer Nationalists as you just said earlier and your own Spotlight poll shows some vote for Alliance, that's at odds with everything you have said.

gallag

gurramok wrote: »

So they are no longer Nationalists as you just said earlier and your own Spotlight poll shows some vote for Alliance, that's at odds with everything you have said.

Its not really that hard to understand, someone who votes for the sdlp/sf may also vote no to a ui, its just sf/sdlp may look to be a better vote on a local level, was there not a poll lately showing a high percentage of sf voters would vote no to a ui?

ardmacha

This is why we must be weary of falling into the trap of thinking a vote for a nationalist party equals a vote for unification.

What trap? A person voting for a nationalist party wants unification and they want their party to deliver that. However, this does not mean that they think the job is completed yet, hard work is still needed on the details.

Iwasfrozen

ardmacha wrote: »

What trap? A person voting for a nationalist party wants unification and they want their party to deliver that. However, this does not mean that they think the job is completed yet, hard work is still needed on the details.

Not always.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

So they are no longer Nationalists as you just said earlier and your own Spotlight poll shows some vote for Alliance, that's at odds with everything you have said.

gallag wrote: »

Its not really that hard to understand, someone who votes for the sdlp/sf may also vote no to a ui, its just sf/sdlp may look to be a better vote on a local level, was there not a poll lately showing a high percentage of sf voters would vote no to a ui?

This. I know it may be hard to make yourself understand something you don't want to but the concept isn't difficult.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

This. I know it may be hard to make yourself understand something you don't want to but the concept isn't difficult.

I'd say those SF voters that said no in that poll did so because of the dire economic state of the South at the moment. Remember the question in that BBC poll asked if a referendum was held tomorrow. It had little to do with long term political aspirations. Those arguing against a UI are reading way too much into it.

Iwasfrozen

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

I'd say those SF voters that said no in that poll did so because of the dire economic state of the South at the moment. Remember the question in that BBC poll asked if a referendum was held tomorrow. It had little to do with long term political aspirations. Those arguing against a UI are reading way too much into it.

The referendum can be held tomorrow and unification delayed for years. The question was only to gauge desire for unification amongst the population.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The referendum can be held tomorrow and unification delayed for years. The question question was only to gauge desire for unification amongst the population.

Wasn't asked in the question. The wording of a question can influence an outcome. Imagine that question with: "if the RoI was still a booming economy and the UK was in recession?" in it instead of "tomorrow".

Do you think the result would still have been the same amongst nationalists that were polled?

Iwasfrozen

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Wasn't asked in the question. The wording of a question can influence an outcome. Imagine that question with: "if the RoI was still a booming economy and the UK was in recession?" in it instead of "tomorrow".

Do you think the result would still have been the same amongst nationalists that were polled?

Nope. Terminology is extremely important in politics but I don't think the BBC's wording was outrageously biased enough to affect the outcome to any great extent.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Nope ........... BBC's wording was outrageously biased

I wouldn't consider the BBC poll "outrageously biased" as such but by using "tomorrow" in that question, I think people maybe were thinking about their wallets first and political aspirations second.

Iwasfrozen

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

I wouldn't consider the BBC poll "outrageously biased" as such but by using "tomorrow" in that question, I think people maybe were thinking about their wallets first and political aspirations second.

Well then we agree on one thing. People in the North place economic concerns before nationalist. That in itself is very important to know.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

People in the North place economic concerns before nationalist.

Economic concerns that are not merely exclusive to Nationalists or the North itself.

Iwasfrozen

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Economic concerns that are not merely exclusive to Nationalists or the North itself.

No but it tells us the economic question is more important then the national question. So long as Britain can keep the standard of living artificially higher in NI then in the Republic then a UI will be indefinitely postponed. That's the conclusion to draw from these results.

ardmacha

So long as Britain can keep the standard of living artificially higher in NI then in the Republic then a UI will be indefinitely postponed. That's the conclusion to draw from these results.

There is no doubt that Britain is keeping the standard of living artificially higher in NI. However, the issue is not their ability to keep it higher than the Republic, as they haven't done this in recent years. The issue is NIs chronic need for an economic prop, itself a condemnation of the "United Kingdom.

Iwasfrozen

ardmacha wrote: »

There is no doubt that Britain is keeping the standard of living artificially higher in NI. However, the issue is not their ability to keep it higher than the Republic, as they haven't done this in recent years. The issue is NIs chronic need for an economic prop, itself a condemnation of the "United Kingdom.

Why? We repatriate money from Dublin to Mayo. All modern economies try to level the standard of living across the country. The UK is no different and shouldn't be condemned for it.

P.S Could you use the quote function? It's hard to see who you're talking to.

ardmacha

The UK is no different and shouldn't be condemned for it.

Why shouldn't they be condemned for using public expenditure as an instrument of colonisation?

P.S Could you use the quote function? It's hard to see who you're talking to

You'll just have to try and keep up.

Iwasfrozen

ardmacha wrote: »

Why shouldn't they be condemned for using public expenditure as an instrument of colonisation?

Because they aren't. They're just repatriating capital from the wealthy south of England to the less prosperous NI. To give all citizens of the UK a comparable standard of living. We do the same thing with Dublin and Mayo.

ardmacha wrote: »

You'll just have to try and keep up.

Very well but if this conversation abruptly ends you'll know why.

ardmacha

Because they aren't. They're just repatriating capital from the wealthy south of England to the less prosperous NI

They've created a situation where the North, once the most prosperous part of the country, is an economic basket case and this is affecting the question of unification, as you often say yourself.

Very well but if this conversation abruptly ends you'll know why.

Because you accept my point?

Iwasfrozen

ardmacha wrote: »

They've created a situation where the North, once the most prosperous part of the country, is an economic basket case and this is affecting the question of unification, as you often say yourself.

Britain didn't cause NI's economic hardship. They granted the majority of Ireland independence when they asked for it and now they're trying to make the most out of what they have. In a modern first world economy large regional differences in income wouldn't be accepted so repatriation is necessary.

ardmacha wrote: »

Because you accept my point?

Possibly but I doubt it. More likely I will have missed your post because my username's not at the top.