Early July: Heatwave Potential

stephenjmcd

Deank wrote: »

Jaysus, what sort of temps could the last two charts produce Maq?

are we looking at the same temps as spain , mid 30's here ??

sunbabe08

30C+:eek::eek: UM we're gonna fry

M.T. Cranium

Max temps inland would probably reach 31-32 C under those uppers (took a look also at the 850 mb projections which seem a bit conservative given the heights on the charts posted, but still every bit as high as peak of this week's warm spell).

In fact the "cooler interlude" which keeps moving around through midweek basically, is just looking more and more like continued warmth to heat wave conditions with a touch lower dew points (10-13 C instead of 14-17 C or higher) which simply make the sunshine stronger and the sea breeze a couple of degrees more refreshing where it happens at all.

The over/under on July's mean temperature (end of month) is currently 17.3 on our IMT scale which is fully two degrees above normal. As mentioned, drought is now looming as a major possibility, as almost no rain shows up on these charts. An isolated thunderstorm could be heavy in one or two places but so far this warm to hot spell has been resistant to all offers, even that rather strong temperature gradient over Britain on Wednesday failed to set off anything. Massive cap, or as they sometimes say, big high bone dry.

mountainy man

Was I Carrick on Shannon this afternoon and it was sweltering , checked weather station when I got home and had a high of 29.3 at 17.14 and jasus it felt like it, glorious! Seen lots of hay being made on my wee travels which is nice to see.

Reiketsu

Today definitely felt like the hottest day here. It was 27 degrees, still 23 now.

maquiladora

Deank wrote: »

Jaysus, what sort of temps could the last two charts produce Maq?

It's 200+ hours away so no point looking in detail since things at that range can change a lot. The next Saturday chart would be getting up to the highs we've already had this week and then the next Sunday one would have us all refreshing the Met Eireann page every hour to see if any records have been broken.

Lucreto

I wonder if it is possible to get sick of having BBQ's?

If this weather keeps up it might put it to the test.

rc28

Very interesting model output this evening . One thing really notable regardless of temperature is how dry it has been nationwide over last 7 days - this looks like continuing for at least another 7 days. I wouldn't be surprised to see gorse fires in usual places breaking out.

It is very interesing to go back and read the monthly summaries from past noteworthy summers. I had forgotten how amazingly hot July 2006 was, e.g. it reached 32.3 in Elphin Roscommon and 31c at Casement. http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-2006-Jul.pdf
I wonder if we'll ever beat the 33c from the 1800s. Not even the legendary summer of 1995 got close to that.
http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-weather-reports.asp

Supercell

Shannon today reached 28.2
Waiting to see if any other official station reached higher.

greenman09

So for a wedding next week (thurs) in Donegal. Are the charts above suggesting it'll be a scorcher?

mickger844posts

Fantastic model output today. As others have said no end in sight to this warm spell Today felt a bit fresher here and the Max temp of 23.6c reflected that. Still perfect conditions to be outside.

chilipepper

Still 26c at shannon at 21.00

Quickelles

Cloudless day, topped out at 23.7c at noon; still 22c at 5.30pm.

Then it started to plummet; 16.5c now; very clear, dead calm and rh 87%.

Feels cool and damp!

cyclops999

21.00 hrs and 22c in Athlone.

Oscar Bravo

Shannon still 24 degrees....Knock 21(not many days in the year where Knock would be over 20 degrees all day never mind after 10pm!!)

km79

Quickelles wrote: »

Cloudless day, topped out at 23.7c at noon; still 22c at 5.30pm.

Then it started to plummet; 16.5c now; very clear, dead calm and rh 87%.

Feels cool and damp!

I wish it would plummet at night here . It's almost unbearable at this stage now

mike65

A mere 17 C now, might get some sleep tonight.

Deank

mike65 wrote: »

A mere 17 C now, might get some sleep tonight.

17.7 here, apparent feel of 18.6, 76% humidity though, nasty humidity, dry air would be nice.

pauldry

Deank wrote: »

17.7 here, apparent feel of 18.6, 76% humidity though, nasty humidity, dry air would be nice.

Sligo got 27.8c today it's warmest of the current spell

Markree broke 28c I think

Finner got 26.1c

Hard to break 30c isn't it

Did Shannon get 29.2c and
Tyrone nearest to 30

snowstreams

pauldry wrote: »

Sligo got 27.8c today it's warmest of the current spell

Markree broke 28c I think

Finner got 26.1c

Hard to break 30c isn't it

Did Shannon get 29.2c and
Tyrone nearest to 30

I think newport might have reached 29c today. Although that could have been a rounded up report.

maquiladora

The 18Z GFS is rolling out, out as far as next Thursday so far and the highs dont drop below 25 any of the days. Obviously not everywhere will be as warm, but still, looking like less of a cool down on every run at the moment.

Keith96

Have been out all day and just seen the charts there.HOLY JESUS WHAT AN UPGRADE! ecm and gfs agree again and I taught it looked like we might have to wait till next weekend for more high 20s.Wednesday on and the heat looks like building up again! East could hit 30C tomorrow

kkontour

Ok, so its MY back garden and its a maplin weather station but,


Www.rockfieldweather.com

Deank

kkontour wrote: »

Ok, so its MY back garden and its a maplin weather station but,


Www.rockfieldweather.com

You need a new PWS, those readings are record breaking if accurate?

kkontour

Deank wrote: »

You need a new PWS, those readings are record breaking if accurate?

Dunno? It was pretty hot. Definatly the hottest day here today.;)

Deank

kkontour wrote: »

Dunno? It was pretty hot. Definatly the hottest day here today.;)

Tues and Wed were here my PWS reached near 32 on Tues with apparent feel of 34, when I went into my conservatory all life forms had died, my poor chili's

MiNdGaM3

SST anomalies around Ireland were about -2C at the beginning of the warm spell. They're quickly warming up though, and should generally be above average by next week.
That being the case, should the synoptics of the last few days re-occur in a weeks time, we could probably stick another ~2C on to the max surface temperatures of late, pushing us into record breaking territory.

_Whimsical_

22 degrees in galway now. Feels horribly sticky , way too hot for this hour.

Deank

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

SST anomalies around Ireland were about -2C at the beginning of the warm spell. They're quickly warming up though, and should generally be above average by next week.
That being the case, should the synoptics of the last few days re-occur in a weeks time, we could probably stick another ~2C on to the max surface temperatures of late, pushing us into record breaking territory.

Can you explain that to the uninitiated?

maquiladora

Deank wrote: »

Can you explain that to the uninitiated?

SST - sea surface temperature.