Early July: Heatwave Potential

maquiladora

The Spider wrote: »

The link you posted for his prediction is for this year 2013, the article was written on 02 Jan 2013

Think this is what you're looking for:

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/moon-reader-predicting-a-long-hot-summer-26611051.html

The fact that it's hard to tell the difference between them says something about the generality forecasts...

scorching weather in July.

I should make it clear that I don't have any problem with anyone making long range forecasts, they are harmless and fun and I do the Lotto myself sometimes so I have nothing against the concept of random guesses.

The problem I have is the guy is selling a spreadsheet that is meant to tell you what the weather is like on any given day between now and the year 2019... all yours for just $217 NZD. I honestly don't know if he believes in it himself or if he is just too busy laughing all the way to the bank but either way its a scam aimed at people who don't know any better, and all the exposure given to him in the media or online only acts as advertising for what he is selling.


Anyway...back to reality...

23 at Johnston Castle at 3pm. Warming up nicely in the southeast this afternoon.

force eleven

Disappointing day weather wise. Cloud has been stubborn all day and looks like remianing so. Might get an hour or 2 of late sunshine, which often happens in these setups.

dopolahpec

While we are still apparently locked in for a nice boost of heat later in the week and weekend, it looks more and more like the fat lady will be singing in 8-10 days time for this hot spell. Though, the way the year has panned out so far who's going to predict we will see a Round 3 at some point in August?

maquiladora

force eleven wrote: »

Disappointing day weather wise. Cloud has been stubborn all day and looks like remianing so. Might get an hour or 2 of late sunshine, which often happens in these setups.

Take a drive down to south south east, lovely here now. Cloud is burnt away.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

maquiladora

dopolahpec wrote: »

While we are still apparently locked in for a nice boost of heat later in the week and weekend, it looks more and more like the fat lady will be singing in 8-10 days time for this hot spell. Though, the way the year has panned out so far who's going to predict we will see a Round 3 at some point in August?

Yep, looking at the GFS ensembles it looks nice and steady until around day 10, then the uncertainty starts coming in with some members showing a drop in temperature but others not changing much at all :



It's interesting though to look back at what the GFS was showing 10 days ago, and what it shows is the breakdown starting in around 10 days, aka today...



So it will be interesting to see if things get pushed back again as time goes on or not.

jaffusmax

dopolahpec wrote: »

While we are still apparently locked in for a nice boost of heat later in the week and weekend, it looks more and more like the fat lady will be singing in 8-10 days time for this hot spell. Though, the way the year has panned out so far who's going to predict we will see a Round 3 at some point in August?

Like Ken Ring Style I can 100% Guarantee there WILL be a scorcher in August I have not figured out which year yet though

chakotha

Hot and sunny now in Cork. Google says 26C. wunderground says 27.1C.

Larbre34

Enjoying the bit of a break in the heat today to be honest, its not cold by any means, 19C outside and 23 indoors, still bone dry of course so the kids are playing away outside for the day and hopefully tonight will be the most comfortable night for over a week

UK Met are calling for a breakdown in all but southern England after 30 July, I think we're likely to see alternating days of cloudy and humid with very warm sun until then, but the days of sparkling unbroken sun countryside may well be done for a while. However, no appreciable rain on the horizon so we will be into official drought status by the weekend and water restrictions and agricultural problems during next week

jaffusmax

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Heights still forecast-ed to dominate our area for at least 10 days out.

DOCARCH

chakotha wrote: »

Hot and sunny now in Cork. Google says 26C. wunderground says 27.1C.

...and Met Eireann says 21c (...well at the Airport).

A little sun here this afternoon. 21.6c atm.

Weathering

We are only 4months away from possible snow terrority again. Crazy. Looking forward to round 2 later this week

maquiladora

From Wednesday until the end if hi-res next Tuesday on the 12Z GFS :

Cosmo Kramer

Sun broke through in Castlebar around three-ish and it's been a lovely warm and sunny evening. But even from here I can see the blanket of clouds to the south just a few miles away where it has remained overcast all day. Hard to know where the line is but I guess a lot of south Mayo must have remained in the shade.

jaffusmax

Turning in to a nice day in Dundalk, just took out the BBQ to get rid of the left over meat from Saturday!

maquiladora

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Sun broke through in Castlebar around three-ish and it's been a lovely warm and sunny evening. But even from here I can see the blanket of clouds to the south just a few miles away where it has remained overcast all day. Hard to know where the line is but I guess a lot of south Mayo must have remained in the shade.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Whats your thoughts of cloud until the end of the weekend Maq ?

maquiladora

t|nt|n wrote: »

Whats your thoughts of cloud until the end of the weekend Maq ?

Hard to know with cloud very far in advance, I'd guess staying partly cloudy until later in the week anyway.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Hard to know with cloud very far in advance, I'd guess staying partly cloudy until later in the week anyway.

Are you angling for a job presenting the forecast there

Off wednesday so might head mid-west for the day

M.T. Cranium

Surely most people would be delighted to get a break from the heat but more so the drought, as I've posted elsewhere, figure on August being warm again but perhaps with more normal rainfall in general and a better chance for possibly severe thunderstorm events. I think it likely that the warmer than average signal will fade gradually in September and be replaced by a colder than average regime for a time by the end of that month into early October but that blocking will resume for a nice spell of Indian summer weather later on.

The intensity of the late July cooldown will probably get downgraded closer to the time as I think was true of this recent slight cooling trend, it looked sharper about a week ago.

fryup

nice & cool today made a pleasant change i must say ..got a bit of gardening done without feeling knackered after 5min

jaffusmax

Does anyone think the SSW earlier on in the year contribute to our stellar July weather?

Quickelles

After a bright start it was cloudy from about 8.30 to early afternoon keeping temps pinned in the 18 - 19 range in a stiff westerly breeze from the cloud covered inland.

Mainly clear and sunny since about 2pm but the wind from the cool cloudy area to the west kept the max to 21.8C (at 5.30pm); lowest for five days.

Clear, sunny, 17.8 now.

maquiladora

Some great runs tonight. The BOM being the most exciting showing a 3 day plume over us in FI with +20 uppers just off the south coast. Hot and with potential for a July 1985 style thunderstorm event (my earliest memory, weather related or otherwise!).

BOM :



It's only the BOM though, and deep FI... but I'll be keeping an eye to see if it shows up on the bigger models.

mickger844posts

Max here today 22.7c in pleasant afternoon sunshine.
The WXSIM forecasting software on my Waterford Weather site has performed very well throughout this heatwave and its currently showing 28c for Friday and Saturday in my area. The highest temp on record for Waterford that i could find was a 28.8c on August 2nd 1995. It will be interesting to see how close we get to that.

pad199207

ECM has pushed out a very Heatwavey scenario! This July maybe one for the booooks!

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

ECM has pushed out a very Heatwavey scenario! This July maybe one for the booooks!

Day 10...

pad199207

Thats the 12z Maq

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pad199207 wrote: »

Thats the 12z Maq

Thats the latest ECM run

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

Thats the 12z Maq

I know. And it's still warm. +15 uppers pushing up from the continent.

pad199207

Oh dont mind that comment, mind is all over the place, duh the 12z