Early July: Heatwave Potential

jaffusmax

maquiladora wrote: »

Tonights ECM ends with...

Elmer Blooker

tomorrow is looking like another typical Irish cloudy let down, that mass of cloud in the Atlantic is heading right for us. It looks like we'll have to wait for the high to drift north later in the week.
http://www.sat24.com/de/eu
if the sun can't burn that cloud yesterday and today its unlikely to do so tomorrow.

pad199207

Being honest I dont like that Atlantic Low trespassing on our Azores! Even though the Models are showing it wont really have any effect on our heat... i just dont trust any Atlantic Low! But all in all another stunning run on models, getting used to this now!

maquiladora

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

tomorrow is looking like another typical Irish cloudy let down, that mass of cloud in the Atlantic is heading right for us. It looks like we'll have to wait for the high to drift north later in the week.
http://www.sat24.com/de/eu
if the sun can't burn that cloud yesterday and today its unlikely to do so tomorrow.

The cloud today was due to southwesterly winds carrying moisture from the warmed Atlantic waters, there will be some cloud around tomorrow but not as much as today as the high will be building over us by then.

As for yesterday, there was 8.9 hours of sunshine recorded at Cork Airport. Today it got up to 24.5 degrees down here in Waterford and there was some glorious extended sunshine between the clouds earlier. It might have been cloudy in Dublin all day yesterday and today, but that doesn't mean it was a day typical everywhere.

Also, these days (Mon-Wed) have been seen ahead for several days now on the models as a "cool down" of sorts as we transition from one period of hot weather to another, so there should be nothing surprising about some cloud and cooler temps. You just don't get endless days of heat and blue skies in Ireland, it has to transition from one phase to another.

Up to 24-25 again tomorrow in the southern areas. And then upwards after that...happy days.

pad199207 wrote: »

Being honest I dont like that Atlantic Low trespassing on our Azores! Even though the Models are showing it wont really have any effect on our heat... i just dont trust any Atlantic Low! But all in all another stunning run on models, getting used to this now!

I disagree. That low is important, it helps direct that hot plume of continental air northward in our direction so could have a big impact in terms of our heat and type of weather. Big difference between a flow from the east and a flow from the south. It's too far off to know for certain what will happen though.

Elmer Blooker

^ it was predominately cloudy throughout the country today, I had some sunny spells but I would still consider it a cloudy day (if that makes sense)

Harps

Real Spanish Plume potential in that ECMWF run, heat for the foreseeable future and a chance of some spectacular thunderstorms. Happy days!

Nice enough day here today, the wind finally shifted from a NW'erly so that annoying cool breeze is gone, plenty of sunshine in the morning & early afternoon before it clouded over again.

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

^ it was predominately cloudy throughout the country today, I had some sunny spells but I would still consider it a cloudy day (if that makes sense)

It was dry with temps in the 20's nationwide so I don't see any reason to call it a let down, it was cloudy pretty much everywhere but then you can't expect wall to wall sunshine every single day in this country

Israeli Superiority

pad199207 wrote: »

Being honest I dont like that Atlantic Low trespassing on our Azores! Even though the Models are showing it wont really have any effect on our heat... i just dont trust any Atlantic Low! But all in all another stunning run on models, getting used to this now!

If you're referring to the ECM: it's a shallow area of low pressure, perfect for generating showers and an unstable atmosphere; so if it went near a sun-baked Ireland, sparks would fly - continental-style thunderstorms.

maquiladora

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

^ it was predominately cloudy throughout the country today, I had some sunny spells but I would still consider it a cloudy day (if that makes sense)

I agree, cloudy in most places alright, but not a let down since it was never expected to be a totally clear day (or tomorrow) and a week ago the models were showing a breakdown happening around now instead of a transition to another hot spell. It's a far cry from the miserable, wet cool summers that feel much more typical to me over the last 8 years or so.

We might be longing for some cloud in a few days anyway....

Elmer Blooker

Harps wrote: »

It was dry with temps in the 20's nationwide so I don't see any reason to call it a let down, it was cloudy pretty much everywhere but then you can't expect wall to wall sunshine every single day in this country

believe me I don't! When you see a chart like this after waiting years for an Azores high in summer I was hoping for better - thats all.
You would expect the cloudy weather to be well to the north of the country looking at that chart, eastern areas usually do very well in situations like this.
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax0s.gif?16-12

Oscar Bravo

Another nice day in Castlebar with cloudy periods and sunny spells.....good summer weather!!

Slashermcguirk

I would consider today pretty decent in Dublin anyway to be honest. 22 degrees and partly cloudy with occasional sunshine. Not to be sniffed at, would take that most summers. Nearly two weeks of no rain now, impressive

maquiladora

I know it's only FI but, a closer look at he 12Z ECM 850 temps on day 10 :



16 almost everywhere with 17 just off the coast and 20 pushing up from France...

Duck's hoop

maquiladora wrote: »

I know it's only FI but, a closer look at he 12Z ECM 850 temps on day 10 :



16 almost everywhere with 17 just off the coast and 20 pushing up from France...

Is that good? Please excuse almost complete lack of understanding and/or knowledge.

sunbabe08

My weather app saying 21℃ in youghal right now. Having my doubts believing that

Deank

sunbabe08 wrote: »

My weather app saying 21℃ in youghal right now. Having my doubts believing that

No I'd say it's not far off, my weather station is reading just below 19c in Kildare. Beats last years storms in Youghal anyway, I'll never forget those few days.

maquiladora

Duck's hoop wrote: »

Is that good? Please excuse almost complete lack of understanding and/or knowledge.

It's good if you're looking for high temperatures, it's the temperature at 850mb (or 5,000ft up). It shows the temperature of the airmass. You want a warm airmass if you're looking for heat at the surface. Can also be an important ingredient in thundery outbreaks.

aboyro

normally i like to shout when the upper 850's get to -8 but +20. holy god:D

Duck's hoop

maquiladora wrote: »

It's good if you're looking for high temperatures, it's the temperature at 850mb (or 5,000ft up). It shows the temperature of the airmass. You want a warm airmass if you're looking for heat at the surface. Can also be an important ingredient in thundery outbreaks.

Oh yes. That's what I'm looking for in my summer weather! Don't mind a thundery interlude or two.

Like many people, I been waiting for this for a fcuking long ass time.

Rebelbrowser

aboyro wrote: »

normally i like to shout when the upper 850's get to -8 but +20. holy god:D

Did someone say -8 uppers?

Deank

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Did someone say -8 uppers?

When -12's got mentioned from late Jan through to late March we were hopping around the place in anticipation of snow, weather extremists on both ends of the scale I'd say, I'll take +20's now and -16's in Dec thru to Feb.

maquiladora

Deank wrote: »

When -12's got mentioned from late Jan through to late March we were hopping around the place in anticipation of snow, weather extremists on both ends of the scale I'd say, I'll take +20's now and -16's in Dec thru to Feb.

You might be waitin a while for +20 uppers in Ireland! I'm not sure thats ever happened in recorded history here, but maybe someone can find an example from the archives. :pac:

The uppers were around 20-22 that crept into England in August 2003 that set the all time record high temperature in the UK of 38.5 in Kent.

Deank

maquiladora wrote: »

You might be waitin a while for +20 uppers in Ireland! I'm not sure thats ever happened in recorded history here, but maybe someone can find an example from the archives. :pac:

The uppers were around 20-22 that crept into England in August 2003 that set the all time record high temperature in the UK of 38.5 in Kent.

What's the highest uppers you can recall Maq, what are we at the moment +14 to 16?

ninebeanrows

Could near a July record currently 32.3c at some point in the next 10 days.

maquiladora

Deank wrote: »

What's the highest uppers you can recall Maq, what are we at the moment +14 to 16?

At the moment? About 10-11 tomorrow, rising slowly over the coming days.

I had a look back to 2006 19 July temps when 31-32 was recorded, the highest in Ireland since 1976.

Uppers of 16 just reaching the south coast at that time:



So what the ECM is showing on day 10 with 16 all over Ireland and 17 knocking on the door, it would be enough to break records - if all the other conditions were just right too....but it's 10 days away, FI...don't bet on it.

Deank

maquiladora wrote: »

At the moment? About 10-11 tomorrow, rising slowly over the coming days.

I had a look back to 2006 19 July temps when 31-32 was recorded, the highest in Ireland since 1976.

Uppers of 16 just reaching the south coast at that time:



So what the ECM is showing on day 10 with 16 all over Ireland and 17 knocking on the door, it would be enough to break records - if all the other conditions were just right too....but it's 10 days away, FI...don't bet on it.

FI just sets us up to disappoint, heat in summer and snow in winter, not that this summer has disappointed in the slightest.

sunbabe08

Deank wrote: »

No I'd say it's not far off, my weather station is reading just below 19c in Kildare. Beats last years storms in Youghal anyway, I'll never forget those few days.

I know, I was down here for that. Amazing.

Elmer Blooker

heres one from the archives, I remember the temperature reached 31c on five consecutive days in Kilkenny in July 1983.

maquiladora

That looked like a real sorcher alright, alas I was too young to remember it.

Around 31 sounds right for that type of setup with +16 uppers over the whole country. A difference between that and what the 12Z ECM is showing for day 10 is the warmer (+20) airmass pushed further north closer to us.

Quickelles

maquiladora wrote: »

It might have been cloudy in Dublin all day yesterday and today, but that doesn't mean it was a day typical everywhere.

It most certainly was not; cloudless from 2pm to past midnight on Monday and long sunny spells leading to 23C+ Tuesday.

maquiladora

Quickelles wrote: »

It most certainly was not; cloudless from 2pm to past midnight and Monday and long sunny spells leading to 23C+ Tuesday.

It sounds like you were having a bit more luck with the clouds at your location than Elmer then.