Early July: Heatwave Potential

Elmer Blooker

maquiladora wrote: »

It sounds like you were having a bit more luck with the clouds at your location than Elmer then.

yep, the southside gets everything,

DOCARCH

All this talk of uppers....just making me hungry for winter! :P

Very mild night here with a low of 16.7c. 17.2c atm.

snaps

clear blue skies are back in the west (Mayo). Gorgeous morning, A little chilly, but a fantastic start to the day.

M.T. Cranium

Agreed there is potential for temperatures into the low 30s by the weekend and Monday. Anyone heading to southern England or France on holiday or business around Friday to mid-week should be aware that highs could reach mid 30s there and even upper 30s in parts of France as a large surge of Saharan air moves north towards the Channel. Not quite Aug 2003 but within 2 deg of that. Heat could become extreme health and safety sort of situation in Paris and possibly London as well.

Slashermcguirk

Paris looks like being brutally hot. I have been there many times over the years and when it gets hot, it is absolutely sweltering. Different league to lreland and UK. People jumping into the fountains, pretty uncomfortable. I think record in Paris is 43. Quite a bit higher than record high in London 37 and dublin (is Dublin record 31??).

maquiladora

A very different FI on the ECM this morning (thats why its called FI) with low pressure sneaking up from the southwest early next week and the plume of warm air getting deflected to the east. No record breaking temps of that run, but could be a real thundery breakdown if that happens.

GFS keeps things warm until out in FI yet again, around Friday 26th.

Quickelles

maquiladora wrote: »

It sounds like you were having a bit more luck with the clouds at your location than Elmer then.

Y'know the song..."wherever you go you bring the weather with you!"

Cloudy overnight and a new high low of 15.8C; balmy - though Elmer might say sticky!

Now 20C, 77% rh...almost sticky.

wobblyknees

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Agreed there is potential for temperatures into the low 30s by the weekend and Monday. Anyone heading to southern England or France on holiday or business around Friday to mid-week should be aware that highs could reach mid 30s there and even upper 30s in parts of France as a large surge of Saharan air moves north towards the Channel. Not quite Aug 2003 but within 2 deg of that. Heat could become extreme health and safety sort of situation in Paris and possibly London as well.

Will be there this weekend. Extra sun tan lotion and shorts being packed so!

JM Skipton

Feel very deflated after looking at the latest charts, I suppose there had to be a breakdown at some stage. But I was starting to believe it was going to last into August. Will definitely make the most of this weekend now.

maquiladora

JM Skipton wrote: »

Feel very deflated after looking at the latest charts, I suppose there had to be a breakdown at some stage. But I was starting to believe it was going to last into August. Will definitely make the most of this weekend now.

When an FI chart looks too good to be true, it usually is. Same rule applies to winter.

Still some very warm days this week, weekend and at least part of next week to come....beyond that, who knows, it may get pushed back again as has happened several times. Whatever happens it's not going to last forever so make the most of it!

JM Skipton

maquiladora wrote: »

When an FI chart looks too good to be true, it usually is. Same rule applies to winter.

Still some very warm days this week, weekend and at least part of next week to come....beyond that, who knows, it may get pushed back again as has happened several times. Whatever happens it's not going to last forever so make the most of it!

Absolutely, enjoy the now, you never 100% know what will happen after that

maquiladora

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Any chance of organised thunderstorms coming off the continent or UK? GFS going for precip along the west midlands. No good to me here . Im not seeing a breakdown yet either or am I missing something?

The ECM is showing the cut off low to our southwest dirting up towards us after the weekend, reducing temps and increasing the risk of precip. Could well be very thundery in nature but too far off to look at in detail. Different from the traditional type of breakdown that we are using to see (i.e. Atlantic powerhouse steamrolling over us), more of a gradual and more interesting breakdown.

06Z GFS is rolling out now. As for thunderstorms, well...its looking good.

hotwhiskey

maquiladora wrote: »

The ECM is showing the cut off low to our southwest dirting up towards us after the weekend, reducing temps and increasing the risk of precip. Could well be very thundery in nature but too far off to look at in detail. Different from the traditional type of breakdown that we are using to see (i.e. Atlantic powerhouse steamrolling over us), more of a gradual and more interesting breakdown.

GFS not as active to bring that low up over us after the weekend. On the GFS the closest its gets is on Monday then backtracks Maq with the heat building once again. I know its a far out but it will be interesting to see if the GFS take this road compared to the ECM.

maquiladora

hotwhiskey wrote: »

GFS not as active to bring that low up over us after the weekend. On the GFS the closest its gets is on Monday then backtracks Maq with the heat building once again. I know its a far out but it will be interesting to see GFS will take this road.

It's fairly similar to the last run, a breakdown around next Friday, a thundery few days before that, maybe very thundery depending on how things play out, but yeah too far off still to look at in detail. Nice to have some interesting model watching though.

mickger844posts

23.9c here with sunny spells, calm and feeling very muggy.

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

23.9c here with sunny spells, calm and feeling very muggy.

Was just looking at your weather station records. 11 consecutive days over 21 degrees. Wonder how many more days?

Larbre34

Cloud seems to be building rather than dissipating today, or is that more of a haze?

whitebriar

Arklow-24.2c
Sunny
No sea breeze

Slashermcguirk

I hear its beautiful in parts of Donegal today. Sunny and warm

Thargor

What do people think of the BBCs prediction for thunder and showers all day Sunday in Galway?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2964180

Although its changing every 6 hours anyway so I think Im going to chance it.

maquiladora

Another beautiful day to be sitting out here in Waterford. 24 and sunny now.

whitebriar

Thargor wrote: »

What do people think of the BBCs prediction for thunder and showers all day Sunday in Galway?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2964180

Although its changing every 6 hours anyway so I think Im going to chance it.

Very unreliable,I don't know why they,a reputable outfit bother with that kind of detail that far out.

That said,when the thundering comes,in this spell,well inland and west are prime for homegrown storms.
My advice is to stay tuned here closer to the time for better detail.

Quickelles

Well, it's cloudy, there is a light breeze from the North and the temperature is 24.6C

Must be a near record for a cloudy day and/or a Northerly breeze!

whitebriar

maquiladora wrote: »

Another beautiful day to be sitting out here in Waterford. 24 and sunny now.

Spare a thought for those working out in it,its a sweat fest!
Having lunch now but back into it I go in a few mins.
Its worse today as the cloud inland is hindering any sea breeze starting.

Weathering

Nice day in Donegal, sunny all day. I was expecting it to mostly cloudy

Harps

Weathering wrote: »

Nice day in Donegal, sunny all day. I was expecting it to mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy now on the west coast with a strong breeze, cloud is breaking up as it moves inland. Only 19C here but feels warm enough

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

Was just looking at your weather station records. 11 consecutive days over 21 degrees. Wonder how many more days?

Its a fantastic run Maq Think we may see 20 days given current output and possibly just 1.8mm of rain for the month(depending on thundery activity). Without checking back through the records i'm sure it would be an all time low for Waterford.

TheMilkyPirate

26.4c and sunny here. 14 consecutive days over 20c and 0.0mm of rain since the 23rd of June.

If in reading my graphs right!!

Larbre34

Just one more day till an official drought, for 95% of the island anyway?

Israeli Superiority

My tap-water was a transparent green colour when I poured some into a bottle. After about a liter, it was clear again. Is contaminated water symbolic of drought conditions?