Early July: Heatwave Potential

jaffusmax

Israeli Superiority wrote: »

My tap-water was a transparent green colour when I poured some into a bottle. After about a liter, it was clear again. Is contaminated water symbolic of drought conditions?

You will be charged by the government for that water soon! :pac::pac::pac:

JM Skipton

I see Roches Point is leading the way to be the driest station in July, 2.5mm in 17 days, incredible for Ireland.

maquiladora

JM Skipton wrote: »

I see Roches Point is leading the way to be the driest station in July, 2.5mm in 17 days, incredible for Ireland.

The record drought is 37 days in Limerick 1938.

Oscar Bravo

Oak park still topping the met reports....25 degrees @ 1600.

maquiladora

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Oak park still topping the met reports....25 degrees @ 1600.

I notice the sea temp at the M5 bouy is up to 19.2 now too.

JM Skipton

maquiladora wrote: »

The record drought is 37 days in Limerick 1938.

Is that 37 days with 0 mm? If so, well then that's a once in a lifetime event. On saying that a few stations may make it to 21-22 days at 0 mm.I remember late May to middle of June 2006 in Dublin we had close to 21 days without rain but boy it came down heavy come late June that year.

Larbre34

JM Skipton wrote: »

Is that 37 days with 0 mm? If so, well then that's a once in a lifetime event. On saying that a few stations may make it to 21-22 days at 0 mm.I remember late May to middle of June 2006 in Dublin we had close to 21 days without rain but boy it came down heavy come late June that year.

I think the widespread nature of this potential drought will be the notable issue.

Quickelles

maquiladora wrote: »

The record drought is 37 days in Limerick 1938.

Clearly my memory is not operating to elephantine standards these days but I remember as a lad (or think I do) that in the Summer of 1975 (the year before the very hot one) there was over fifty days without rain in Dublin?

I recall hearing on the radio "today is the 47th day without rain at....(somewhere in Dublin)" - until about day number 52.

I was in Tipperary at the time so couldn't personally verify the drought.

maquiladora

JM Skipton wrote: »

Is that 37 days with 0 mm? If so, well then that's a once in a lifetime event. On saying that a few stations may make it to 21-22 days at 0 mm.I remember late May to middle of June 2006 in Dublin we had close to 21 days without rain but boy it came down heavy come late June that year.

Met Eireann calls it an "absolute drought" which sounds like 0 mm to me. Amazingly it wasn't even in summer, 3rd April - 10th May.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-extremes.asp

JanuarySnowstor

I'm unsure where all this talk of drought is coming from.
The models are now showing quite a lot of rainfall for next week in the form of thundery showers.
It looks to me as if all parts will have seen rain by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Indeed, as the heat is predicted to stay some intense thunderstorms are likely so flooding rather than drought looks the menu

Quickelles

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann calls it an "absolute drought" which sounds like 0 mm to me. Amazingly it wasn't even in summer, 3rd April - 10th May.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-extremes.asp

But a heavy dew would record 1 mm of "rain"; surely the bar should be set at 2mm or whatever would eliminate condensation?

maquiladora

Quickelles wrote: »

But a heavy dew would record 1 mm of "rain"; surely the bar should be set at 2mm or whatever would eliminate condensation?

I just looked it up.

Absolute drought

A period of at least 15 consecutive days, to none of which is credited 0.01 inches / 0.2 mm or more of precipitation.

Also there's this Met Eireann report on the dry conditions in the 74:

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Oct1974_Dry.PDF

Larbre34

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm unsure where all this talk of drought is coming from.
The models are now showing quite a lot of rainfall for next week in the form of thundery showers.
It looks to me as if all parts will have seen rain by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Indeed, as the heat is predicted to stay some intense thunderstorms are likely so flooding rather than drought looks the menu

It seems to be taken in Britain and Ireland, that 15 consecutive days or more with 0.2mm or less of rainfall is defined as a drought

Most or all of Ireland will have hit that 15 days before any thundery breakdown into next week. It will hopefully, therefore, be a short drought!

Israeli Superiority

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm unsure where all this talk of drought is coming from.
The models are now showing quite a lot of rainfall for next week in the form of thundery showers.
It looks to me as if all parts will have seen rain by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Indeed, as the heat is predicted to stay some intense thunderstorms are likely so flooding rather than drought looks the menu

There's a good chance not every inch of this country will be hit by those thundery showers, unlike organized rain bands, they don't sweep across the country. The showers will be a relief for some, but others still may suffer.

Also, dry ground doesn't absorb water as well as soft ground, if it heats up back again, the water will evaporate before it can trickle down into the reservoirs. The lack of absorbing may also lead to flooding.

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm unsure where all this talk of drought is coming from.
The models are now showing quite a lot of rainfall for next week in the form of thundery showers.
It looks to me as if all parts will have seen rain by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Indeed, as the heat is predicted to stay some intense thunderstorms are likely so flooding rather than drought looks the menu

Poorly drained soil in the southeast requires 70-75mm at the moment and with several warm, dry days ahead that's only going to increase.

The 06Z GFS precip accumulation chart shows 2-6mm total after 8 days in the south east. That would be a long way off from offsetting the moisture deficit which will be +75mm.

I think it's very unlikely that the entire country will be hit by massive 1985 style downpours, even then (a very rare event) it was only eastern counties that got the rain. You can't depend on showers, need frontal rain.

Quickelles

maquiladora wrote: »

I just looked it up.



Also there's this Met Eireann report on the dry conditions in the [75/76]:

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Oct1974_Dry.PDF

"In 1975, the most notable dry period [in Dublin] was from 15th May to 6th July, inclusive"

That's 52 days!!

maquiladora

Quickelles wrote: »

"In 1975, the most notable dry period [in Dublin] was from 15th May to 6th July, inclusive"

That's 52 days!!

Yep that sounds pretty dry alright! Met Eireann list Limerick 1938 as the longest absolute drought so maybe the 1974 dry period wasn't technically an absolute one? Not that a couple of mm would have made much difference anyway.

hotwhiskey

Allready changes to the GFS 12z run compared to 06z. It has the low to our south west much further north this time round coming more inline with the ECM. Thundery!

maquiladora

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Allready changes to the GFS 12z run compared to 06z. It has the low to our south west much further north this time round coming more inline with the ECM. Thundery!

The eventual position of that low (if it's there at all, UKMO doesnt seem to do much with it) will be important. It started off futher north but then dropped down later in the run.

Hot and very thundery. You can see on the precip charts predicted convective showers/storms heading up off northwest France the UK and into Ireland. Could be epic sat/radar watching.

It's FI, but as an indication of how warm it could be. Minimum temperatures for next Wednesday 3pm :

Oscar Bravo

Owen Sherlock on Radio 1 there....hot and dry for the weekend altho E and SE abit cooler due to onshore breeze. he gave next week to....cloudier and humid with some showery outbreaks of rain,thundery at times and will finally bring a relief to the parched countryside.

highdef

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Storms bubbling up in England now. Nice bright echo's. Lucky gits.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

That's a big line exploding into life right now!

maquiladora

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Storms bubbling up in England now. Nice bright echo's. Lucky gits.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Small fry compared to what looks to be on offer after the weekend.

cyclops999

Plenty of lightening showing up in Southern France
http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en

JM Skipton

Along way from being an expert but am I right in saying this evenings charts appear to be pushing out the possible breakdown again with a possible rebuild of Azores high ?

maquiladora

12Z ECM FI sends a hot plume into the UK at 192 hours. +16 reaching for Scotland and +20 crossing the channel to the south coast of England.

nerrad1983

Got the parents a few days down in Galway from next Tuesday until Thursday

Anybody (Maq) wanna give me there opinion on the weather they could get?

Really hoping it wont rain for them!

maquiladora

nerrad1983 wrote: »

Got the parents a few days down in Galway from next Tuesday until Thursday

Anybody (Maq) wanna give me there opinion on the weather they could get?

Really hoping it wont rain for them!

Probably some nice warm days sprinkled with torrential downpours!

nerrad1983

Thank you!

Not exactly the reply i wanted to hear :rolleyes:

Will tell them to make sure and bring the umbrella's with them :mad:

Israeli Superiority

cyclops999 wrote: »

Plenty of lightening showing up in Southern France
http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en

Jaysus, those storms look explosive.

force eleven

So breakdown at day 7-8 then, with intense thunderstorm activity possible. Still, despite growing model agreement, this is still FI. Things may change.