Early July: Heatwave Potential

John.Icy

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I have to disagree and think the gfs temp charts are very close always to what occurs. Today is an example of that, though I would say the midland temps usually do a degree or 2 better than projected

There accurate enough, but the divide sometimes between the East and the West is sometimes well overplayed. Oak park is consistently one of the hottest locations in Ireland throughout this spell, and its firmly an Eastern area. Outside of close coastal areas, you're likely enough to see another degree or two on the prediction charts.

maquiladora

12Z GFS is sending that low more southeastwards. I wonder if we'll get a good plume on this run...

Israeli Superiority

John.Icy wrote: »

There accurate enough, but the divide sometimes between the East and the West is sometimes well overplayed. Oak park is consistently one of the hottest locations in Ireland throughout this spell, and its firmly an Eastern area. Outside of close coastal areas, you're likely enough to see another degree or two on the prediction charts.

In regards to Carlow, the Wicklow Mountains block the sea breeze in the region, so you don't get much of a cooling effect.

I was at Oxegen in 2005, the Sunday and Monday were the hottest days I can remember in Ireland (might be beaten by 2006, but can't recall 2006 all that well). The campsite is south of Naas and it must of been 30*c on those days. Had to sit on a bus for 4 hours in the mid-afternoon and we thought we were going to pass out from dehydration. Horrible experience.

hotwhiskey

OK just looking the the latest GFS. I was wondering which Z run has the most data input.

Iancar29

hotwhiskey wrote: »

OK just looking the the latest GFS. I was wondering which Z run has the most data input.

The 12z for the gfs has more sounding data imputed compared to the 18z ( pub run ) , not sure about the 00z or 06z

maquiladora

Look at the difference the track of that low makes between the 06Z and the 12Z.

Harps

Think the 0 and 12z runs have the most data, they're the only ones to include US weather balloon data or something like that, not sure how big an effect that has on the output for this side of the Atlantic though


Anyway, 17C with sea fog again in Donegal, can't wait for some weather again. Sick of the constant disappointment so far this month so a few thunderstorms would make up for it nicely

Quickelles

That pale blue cloudless Med sky here all day; temp peaked at 25.1 at 14.00 (4th warmest day of the month); 23.4 now with a noticeable easterly kicking in.

The very last thing I want to see is a thunderstorm.

maquiladora

The rain comes back with a serious vengeance after the breakdown on the 26th/27th on the 12Z GFS.

Quickelles

maquiladora wrote: »

The rain comes back with a serious vengeance after the breakdown on the 26th/27th on the 12Z GFS.

Aaaagh! :eek:

Stop saying that - I'm not listening :mad:

maquiladora

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

High Temperature Warning for Ireland

Temperatures will reach values between 27 and 30 degrees in many areas for the next two days. Nights will be warm and humid as well. The very warm and humid weather is likely to continue early next week as well.

Issued:
Thursday 18 July 2013 16:00

Valid:
Thursday 18 July 2013 16:00 to Sunday 21 July 2013 19:00

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

Larbre34

Quickelles wrote: »

That pale blue cloudless Med sky here all day; temp peaked at 25.1 at 14.00 (4th warmest day of the month); 23.4 now with a noticeable easterly kicking in.

The very last thing I want to see is a thunderstorm.

You might be glad of one by the time the heat of the next 3/4 days has passed. Likewise some serious rain in about another 9 days. Everyone will be struggling somewhat by then with domestic water shortages, farming, gardening, wildfires etc. Like anything we're not used to Ireland, we dont cope well.

Quickelles

Larbre34 wrote: »

You might be glad of one by the time the heat of the next 3/4 days has passed. Likewise some serious rain in about another 9 days. Everyone will be struggling somewhat by then with domestic water shortages, farming, gardening, wildfires etc. Like anything we're not used to Ireland, we dont cope well.

Bah! I'll cope; naysayers say the same thing about my second favourite weather type - snow.

I want every December, January and February to be December 2010.


I want every Summer to be 1995.

flutered

my gaff was built in the 1800s the walls are 28-30 inches thick, nice and cool all the time, in the winter the electric lights would keep the kitchen warm in mild weather.

maquiladora

12Z GEM says what breakdown?

Sunday 28th :

Elmer Blooker

Quickelles wrote: »

Bah! I'll cope; naysayers say the same thing about my second favourite weather type - snow.

I want every December, January and February to be December 2010.


I want every Summer to be 1995.

I want every January to be 1982. otherwise I agree!

ongarboy

Just checking yesterday's weather temp maxes and while it was no means one of the hotter days this July, every single weather station recorded at least 20+ degrees, even poor old chilly Malin Head! Is this a first? Even when some stations recorded 30+ in past heatwaves, I recall Malin Head only recording 16 or 17.

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

It will be interesting to see what the average monthly mean temps will be when July ends. Shannon and Oak Park are already over 18 degrees. I wonder will they top the 1995 means once this coming weeks heat is factored in?

maquiladora

12Z ECM rolling out. No breakdown in temperature shown for next Thursday, or next Friday...

Swimming in a sea of 12-14 uppers, mid to high 20's on the ground. Cooler air nowhere to be seen...(not that it would be totally dry all the time though)




The breakdown gets pushed back to Sunday 28th on this run. 240 hours away, as far into FI as the ECM goes, so pinch of salt with that chart. Pinch of salt beyond 120 hours really since there are disagreements between the models.

eskimocat

Larbre34 wrote: »

So moderate low pressure from a continental source and still hot, that will be an very unusual combo for Ireland

"The weather in the jungle is hot and shi77y, with a pi55y weather front. In a word its HOT"

One of my fav quotes! Hard to believe it applies to Ireland!

maquiladora

Still 25 degrees at Shannon at 9pm.

JM Skipton

Some forecast from Evelyn there, had to double take to make sure she wasn't talking about Australia!!!!

Slashermcguirk

Met eireann forecast after news looks good. Risk of thundery rain for south west for late Sunday and Monday but looks dry elsewhere and staying really warm for the week. Unbelievable summer this has been so far. Took 10 days off in June and had constant sun and now pretty much 3 weeks of sun and temps in the 20s and even 30 in July.

Oh to get this every year!

mickger844posts

JM Skipton wrote: »

Some forecast from Evelyn there, had to double take to make sure she wasn't talking about Australia!!!!

No breakdowns according to Evelyn. Hot continuing into next week with a risk of thundery showers at times. That forecast is one for the archives i think.

Lumi

10pm and still a balmy 23.1C in Galway city

Oscar Bravo

The Fog has rolled in here in Castlebar turning day into night very quickly!

maquiladora

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

The Fog has rolled in here in Castlebar turning day into night very quickly!

Won't be long burning off in the morning.

Harps

Its over a week now since we had a full day of unbroken sunshine here, a few hours today between 1-4pm but yet again the evening is ruined by dense fog. Hopefully the stronger easterly breeze over the next few days might push it out to sea

Quickelles

Cloudless, calm, 15.5 and dropping rapidly...nice

maquiladora

Big change for Wednesday on the 18Z GFS. Has the low to our south stronger and pushing up much closer to us. The difference : a 6 degree drop in temperature with rain and cloud pushing up from the south. The 16 degree uppers that were pushing into the Irish Sea on the 12Z are now 700km to the east in Belguim at the same timeframe on the 18Z.

Until the models get a proper handle on this low there is going to be a big question mark over what happens after day 5.

I'd say now is the time more than ever to enjoy the warm dry days ahead because if the 18Z GFS is right (and it could be) then rain, cloud and lower temperatures will be coming back in the middle of next week like Arnie in Terminator 2...

Deank

maquiladora wrote: »

Big change for Wednesday on the 18Z GFS. Has the low to our south stronger and pushing up much closer to us. The difference : a 6 degree drop in temperature with rain and cloud pushing up from the south. The 16 degree uppers that were pushing into the Irish Sea on the 12Z are now 700km to the east in Belguim at the same timeframe on the 18Z.

Until the models get a proper handle on this low there is going to be a big question mark over what happens after day 5.

I'd say now is the time more than ever to enjoy the warm dry days ahead because if the 18Z GFS is right (and it could be) then rain, cloud and lower temperatures will be coming back in the middle of next week like Arnie in Terminator 2...

Nnnnnnnoooo