Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

Hammer Archer

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Supercell over a Montana prairie, US. About hour ago. Tweeted by Ian Fergusson

That's what I call a storm!

Great photo, but it's a good few years old.

Once again the weather shield surrounding the Dublin area does its job.

Iancar29

ANYONE IN the DUblin region up for a Chase 2moro?! Very interesting setup with possible squall line for us in the east 2moro , though the SW is the place to be really.

Don't drive myself but willing to help pay for fuel and some foooooood


My own watch area and thoughts up shortly!

Deank

Iancar29 wrote: »

ANYONE IN the DUblin region up for a Chase 2moro?! Very interesting setup with possible squall line for us in the east 2moro , though the SW is the place to be really.

Don't drive myself but willing to help pay for fuel and some foooooood


My own watch area and thoughts up shortly!

Why, oh why do I have to work tomorrow......:(

maquiladora

UKASF gives us a Moderate Risk for many places and a Slight Risk for the rest tomorrow.

.. IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND ...

A shortwave trough will migrate northeastwards across the area from late morning over Munster through until late evening over Ulster. Cooling mid levels accompanying a sharpening upper trough coupled with diurnal heating will result in 800+ J/kg CAPE. As a result, an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected, spreading from southwest to northeast through the afternoon and evening, particularly across western parts of Ireland and many parts of Northern Ireland. Up to 30kts DLS and LLS will allow cells to become organised, into linear features at times, and with increasingly backed surface winds and rather low LCLs a few funnels or weak tornadoes are possible. Several models suggest the formation of a slow-moving N-S line of showers/storms, or perhaps QLCS, across western parts of Ireland through the evening hours. PWAT values >30mm with frequent showers/storms moving over similar areas may result with some local flash flooding. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is also possible in any stronger cores.

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/258

(QLCS : Quasi Linear Convective Systems)

Iancar29

Yeah Maq , talking to Dan atm on fb , disscussion the northern extent of his mod risk area.
But yeah we both agree SW and and W is the place to be starting things off 2moro then to head NE.

Super-Rush

Some proper rain falling here in Carlow at last.

Don't suppose there could be a spark or two with it?

maquiladora

Super-Rush wrote: »

Some proper rain falling here in Carlow at last.

Don't suppose there could be a spark or two with it?

Nah not much chance of that tonight.

Deank

Super-Rush wrote: »

Some proper rain falling here in Carlow at last.

Don't suppose there could be a spark or two with it?

Nothing showing on the radar, yet!

Super-Rush

All quiet now.

Feck it.

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yeah Maq , talking to Dan atm on fb , disscussion the northern extent of his mod risk area.
But yeah we both agree SW and and W is the place to be starting things off 2moro then to head NE.

You'd want to be back on the east coast for early Thursday too though. Risk looks to be increased a bit for there on the 18Z.

RuthieRose

Sat24 is showing a good possibility for some lightening tomorrow evening about 8pm... Well that's what I'm reading from it... Call it a positive guess!!!!! I'm not a weather buff like some of ye on here but I think I'm learning!!!!!!

http://www.sat24.com/foreloop.aspx?type=3&continent=europa#

WallyGUFC

That storm that hit Galway earlier. Jaysus. Out in Cregmore playing golf and some of it rolled right over us. Stuck behind a wall for 20 minutes. Biggest rain drops I think I've ever seen and awful loud thunder. Another few bangs and flashes at around half 7, beautiful warm sunshine in between. Lovely day!

Iancar29

Heres mine folks , pretty much in line with UKASF.





ADVANCE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

VALID : WEDNESDAY 0600hrs - 0600hrs Thursday.
__________________________________________________

Tomorrow wednesday could see more widespread thunderstorm activity than in the past few days. With some cells being severe.
A strong trough will move eastwards from tomorrow morning and with high amounts of moisture already present, diurnal heating should initiate storms from early morning in the SW and W . With forecast models showing decent low level and mid level shear ,storms could merge into a squall line system and funnel clouds , even perhaps the isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. High moisture content and slow moving storm vectors will mean flash flooding will once again be likely.


This organised band should then move NE across the country during the afternoon and evening. Models are having trouble with the strength they retain as they move eastward , but leinster could be in for some heavy rains and thunder too .

A word of caution particularly to fishermen out on the west coast . Storms could bring high sudden winds and frequent lightning out at sea.

As always during thunderstorms situations , exact areas cannot be forecasted until they are occurring and then radar and satellite observations will be key.

redsteveireland

Low quality picture of Mammatus following the storm this afternoon in Galway city(which I missed:mad:)





Some nice CB's over Galway

maquiladora

18Z has really upgraded the intensity of the initial precip that hits the west coast tomorrow morning.



Could easily get downgraded again though so, pinch of salt.

Later on after that then, the hi res model is showing up to about 60 mm falling in less than 12 hours in some places under what looks like what would be a slow moving line of organised thunderstorms.

Thats assuming that the whole thing goes as the model thinks it will...

Not saything this will happen, it's just what the model is showing :



You'd see colours on the Met Eireann radar you've never seen before if that came off.

Super-Rush

Saw this on Sky earlier.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVUB-fkldxE

monster1

i know its not Ireland, but i was in the most intense storm iv ever being in, in Roanne, France. been the highlight of all the time ive being here. Never have i seen so much lightning, i was between mountains, and the thunder was so loud, took a few videos, will upload if they are any good.

Lumi

Short video of the thunderstorm in Galway city, 23rd July

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3ke46coogk

blankAs

Here in Tramore we had a serious rainstorm this morning at around 12.30 pm, for the intensity of it i would have expected some thunder and lightning but alas there was none however the rain at one point measured 109.8mm/hr. i filled every bucket Ihave with the water and there was plenty of it that got away as the lawn flooded for sometime. Fun times playing in the warm puddles!

dopolahpec

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z has really upgraded the intensity of the initial precip that hits the west coast tomorrow morning.



Could easily get downgraded again though so, pinch of salt.

Later on after that then, the hi res model is showing up to about 60 mm falling in less than 12 hours in some places under what looks like what would be a slow moving line of organised thunderstorms.

Thats assuming that the whole thing goes as the model thinks it will...

Not saything this will happen, it's just what the model is showing :



You'd see colours on the Met Eireann radar you've never seen before if that came off.

Much chance that significant precipitation could make Dublin? Couldn't care less about thunder but the place is crying for rain

Iancar29

Estofex going for a level 1 .





A level 1 was issued for Ireland mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.


SYNOPSIS

At mid and upper troposphere, synoptic-scale pattern will feature one broad cyclonic vortex over the Eastern Atlantic and another one over Western Russia, its trough stretching towards Turkey. In between of these two vortices, an ill-defined ridge will cover parts of Central Europe and Western Scandinavia. Most of Europe will remain under rather weak steering flow, only between 10-15 m/s at 500 hPa. Closer to the surface, weakening frontal system will move from France towards Germany and further eastwards. With broad and shallow low pressure centers over the Atlantic and Russia, front itself will move in a very weak pressure field, featuring some mesoscale lows.

Generally speaking, no pronounced severe weather activity is forecast because of the lack of sufficient CAPE / strong deep layer wind shear overlap. Nevertheless, there are a few areas that deserve closer inspection and those are detailed below.

DISCUSSION

... Ireland ...

Ahead of the short-wave trough rotating around the main cyclonic vortex, warm air advection regime will establish over the region. With rather cool mid-level temperatures it seems that at least marginal CAPE build up is plausible. Weak CAPE might be compensated by quite strong forcing. Enhanced low level shear (locally over 10 m/s in the 0-1 km layer) and SREH is simulated by models in response to the WAA. However, deep layer shear will stay marginal at best, decreasing potential for supercellular convection. All in all, situation looks to be on the low-end Level 1 scale with some stronger multicells possibly capable of isolated severe wind gusts and/or weak tornado.

maquiladora

Lightning has started just off the southwest coast.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Lightning has started just off the southwest coast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_gst-Ryh3g

RuthieRose

maquiladora wrote: »

Lightning has started just off the southwest coast.

Where abouts?

JanuarySnowstor

It seems to me that Met Eireann are underestimating today's thundery rain. With a squall line predicted to occur I would have thought that flooding is quite likely and that a yellow warning should be issued

As ever time will tell...

Birtles

black as the ace of spades here and lashing down. radar looks like it could last an hour or two

maquiladora

3 hour rainfall totals from the radar already 30-40mm in some places.

maquiladora

Tony Gilbert on UKWW put up his forecast map.

Birtles

be interesting to see 10 am report for Cork Airport, even though it has eased a bit now.

maquiladora

Birtles wrote: »

be interesting to see 10 am report for Cork Airport, even though it has eased a bit now.

Heaviest rain fell to the west of there though, wouldn't expect anything dramatic.

We'll see where the big showers/storms set up in the afternoon. It will be more hit and miss than this initial band of rain but heavy where it hits.