Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

I saw Met Eireann's forecast yesterday for today and it was the East that was to have the worst of the weather tonight with Thunderstorms.

Today's forecast is completely different with the West and Southwest to get the worst of the weather.

Tonight is to be dry. Really Met Eireann's forecasts are ridiculously poor at the best of times.

If you look at the sat pic and radar you can see exactly this now. Chance of thunderstorms in the East I'd say 0 %. If anything at the very most we will get the usual Irish "storm" of a flash once every 5 mins after 3 flashes it's gone.

If you look at the sat pic below in green you can see this build up as it heads closer to land, that might be the only hope for the East. If you go back on the U.K met site you can see it build. on the Infra-red. This is how the rain over the south west andwest now developed from about midnight if you follow back the sat pics.







I thought with the recent heatwave we could have got something nice to look at and not just the one flast every 5 mins and call that a Thunderstorm !

But I'm not impressed with Met Eireann's forecasting lately to say the least.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes this initial band of rain aint much at all

JanuarySnowstor

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought with the recent heatwave we could have got something nice to look at and not just the one flast every 5 mins and call that a Thunderstorm !

But I'm not impressed with Met Eireann's forecasting lately to say the least.

Yes, but oddly enough the UK MET have also been off the mark a bit of late.
In general I think unless you get a low moving up from Biscay (which this is not) you wont get anything too severe.
The biscay lows are the ones that produce the power and years ago we used to nearly get one each Summer.
I don't remember one recently though i.e. last 5 years!

Birtles

nice for my potatoes & veg though! not nice for anyone looking for a decent weather event atm.

JanuarySnowstor

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes, but oddly enough the UK MET have also been off the mark a bit of late.
In general I think unless you get a low moving up from Biscay (which this is not) you wont get anything too severe.
The biscay lows are the ones that produce the power and years ago we used to nearly get one each Summer.
I don't remember one recently though i.e. last 5 years!

I don't remember an actual Thunderstorm in the last 20 years.

I do remember the severe ones in tee mid to late 80's and I remember the weather forecast say they would come from the Bay of Biscay alright, but nothing like that in the last 20 odd years.

Now Irish people have their own ideas of storms and call a few flashes and rumbles a storm. Those in the mid to late 80's were severe. And I remember one summer they came every night for a week or more.

seatrump

Moderate rain in Limerick City at the moment but doesn't have any convective characteristics at present. Clouds are Nimbostratus.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Tony Gilbert on UKWW put up his forecast map.

Nice to see everyone is in agreement with there warning areas

seatrump

I don't see the aviation weather forecasts being discussed often on here. Since I'm a pilot that tends to be where I head to. Both EICK and EIDW are calling for CBs, but unusually (for Ireland), EINN has a direct call for TS beginning in 3.5 hours. TEMPO 2412/2419 4000 TS
Must be instability behind this rain band.

Birtles

remembering the lightening storm last summer, 27th/28th June. Most thunder/ lightening i have seen in any place.

http://www.met.ie/climate/lightning.asp?ReportDate=28%2F06%2F2012

JanuarySnowstor

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't remember an actual Thunderstorm in the last 20 years.

I do remember the severe ones in tee mid to late 80's and I remember the weather forecast say they would come from the Bay of Biscay alright, but nothing like that in the last 20 odd years.

.

Yeah would agree, trouble is most people on these weather forums are a generation younger and didn't grow up in the 70's and 80's
Why these storms don't come up from Biscay anymore am not quite sure, though they do come up from France to UK.
In general the weather / climate has changed quite a lot for Ireland over the last 20 years or so.
Saying that the last 2 weeks heatwave was very much reminiscint of the 80's so there is hope that it's just a blip.
I'm very suprised that heat of 30C has given way without a few serious storms but I guess being on the atlantic always has us starting from the pit lane.

I still expect something to develop from this squall line today but where and when hard to know

pad199207

I would have thought this evening and overnight looks ok for some at least heavy rain over the East?

Storm 10

Very heavy rain in Galway now and very dark, no sparks maybe later

pad199207

Very explosive off the west coast but as usual no sparks

maquiladora

seatrump wrote: »

I don't see the aviation weather forecasts being discussed often on here. Since I'm a pilot that tends to be where I head to. Both EICK and EIDW are calling for CBs, but unusually (for Ireland), EINN has a direct call for TS beginning in 3.5 hours. TEMPO 2412/2419 4000 TS
Must be instability behind this rain band.

Yes, Total Totals up to 55. This is for 6pm :



CAPE is not fantastic (~1,000) but the shear forecast and forcing make up for that. It will be interesting to see what kicks ups in the afternoon.

Larbre34

Birtles wrote: »

remembering the lightening storm last summer, 27th/28th June. Most thunder/ lightening i have seen in any place.

http://www.met.ie/climate/lightning.asp?ReportDate=28%2F06%2F2012

Ah yes I remember it well, we saw sod all in Dublin

For today, in layman's terms, if the temps get highest in the east is that likely to increase the chances of triggering isolated storms here away from the frontal stuff in the west, given the now unstable airmass?

JanuarySnowstor

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yeah would agree, trouble is most people on these weather forums are a generation younger and didn't grow up in the 70's and 80's
Why these storms don't come up from Biscay anymore am not quite sure, though they do come up from France to UK.
In general the weather / climate has changed quite a lot for Ireland over the last 20 years or so.
Saying that the last 2 weeks heatwave was very much reminiscint of the 80's so there is hope that it's just a blip.
I'm very suprised that heat of 30C has given way without a few serious storms but I guess being on the atlantic always has us starting from the pit lane.

I still expect something to develop from this squall line today but where and when hard to know

Well the blip on the Infra red I showed there is gaining traction and is further east than the rain in the west, south west this morning so it may grow into something this afternoon in the east south east.

I remember the storms of the 80's and I remember the weather forecast always say the Bay of Biscay but not any more. And the storms came from the South east direction.

What I remember the most was being out playing and the sky would get a really dark reddish orange colour and this is the sky where the worst of these storms comes from, I've yet to see anything like it, I do see it from time to time in Germany.

Any thunder since is the usual Irish thunder of a few flashes and mostly heavy rain/hail. But the sky is dark mainly black and not the reddish orange colour.

I also remember the transmissions from Mount Leinster being seriously disrupted.

But yes I think the Summers are in general getting cooler, duller and drier. And I do remember longer warm spells than we have got the last few years in the 1980's 90's. This year being the exception so far. But from the mid 2000's the summers are getting cooler/duller/drier.

eastmayo

I tought the thunderstorms were soposed to be with this syestem moveing up from the southwest this morning?its heavy rain alright but nothing 2bad lookin at the rador so far anyway.

maquiladora

hotwhiskey

Tweeted by Matt over at Met UK

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 2h
A lively day to come for the Republic of Ireland. Some torrential downpours/thunderstorms possible and very strong convective wind gusts.

stooge

kicking off now? few strikes to the west of galway bay now

maquiladora

16 strikes in the past 10 minutes, just off the southwest coast.

dacogawa

A load of sparks just went off north west of Kerry

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Lightning detected now of the South West Coast.

The best hope for the East is if this in green develops as can be tracked on the infra red on the U.K met. Follow it back just like the rain in the west developed from around mid night.

Here it was at 8am



And 9 am



This is the best hope for the East.

I think the Lightning detected off the south west coast will move north east with the rain keeping it in the west and that system developing in the south I circled in green will be the best hope for the East later.

It's just tipping the radar now on met eireann just at the back button on the image.

See below

Lady_North1

Does anyone have a link to a website that shows where lightning has been? I remember having one saved on my old laptop. Can't remember name now.

Thanks a million and apologies if its already posted. (Can't find it)

maquiladora

Lady_North1 wrote: »

Does anyone have a link to a website that shows where lightning has been? I remember having one saved on my old laptop. Can't remember name now.

Thanks a million and apologies if its already posted. (Can't find it)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

Lumi

Lady_North1 wrote: »

Does anyone have a link to a website that shows where lightning has been? I remember having one saved on my old laptop. Can't remember name now.

Thanks a million and apologies if its already posted. (Can't find it)

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Lady_North1

Thanks a million. Really appreciate that.

JanuarySnowstor

That cell to the southwest (off shore) could give some action to the South. Looks pretty strong, bit of sunshine beforehand would help a lot!!

PrzemoF

Lady_North1 wrote: »

Does anyone have a link to a website that shows where lightning has been? I remember having one saved on my old laptop. Can't remember name now.

Thanks a million and apologies if its already posted. (Can't find it)

sat24.com and tick the lightning box. Looks like there is something going along the west coast... also there is an option on radareu.cz but I can't switch it on