Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

maquiladora

UK Met Office has now updated weather warnings for today and tomorrow to include Northern Ireland.

JanuarySnowstor

Plenty jokes doing the rounds last week about Malin head.
Having the last laugh today though, it's the warmest place in Ireland at 21C

maquiladora

06Z NMM showing an intense line of organised slow moving thunderstorms developing today

This is from 4pm to 10pm. We'll see if it happens...



And on the 6km model, looks more intense and impressive :

Tazio

with the strikes over the last few days it was only a matter of time. Good to know planes are well engineered such events

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-23428206

A Ryanair flight from Edinburgh to Alicante was forced to land at Glasgow Prestwick after being struck by lightning.
The incident happened shortly after the flight took off from Edinburgh at about 18:15.
Following Ryanair procedure it was diverted to the nearest available airport.
It was inspected by engineers and took off for Alicante after being given the all-clear.
A Ryanair spokesman said: "We apologise to passengers affected by this short delay, however the safety of our passengers, crew and aircraft is our number one priority."

Deank

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Tall ship off Kinsale taking on water. 30 crew rescued

RTE reporting on it now.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0724/464385-tall-ship-astrid/

Storm 10

Showers to the South today look to be dying out looking at the radar

Deank

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Shame to see something with so much history go down.

Could be some action up to the NE looking at the radar. Still plenty of the day left

S/W coast bubbling up again too.

maquiladora

As I said a few hours ago, "We'll see if it happens..."

So now...

Reality vs. 06Z model.

-Heavy precip in the northeast where the model showed none for this time.
-The band of showers along the west coast that should be intensifying into that line of thunderstorms this evening is instead weakening over the past hour.
-Precip pushing up into the southwest is further east and stronger than expected.
- No lightning since morning.

The 06Z model is looking like a bust right now. It's down to satellite and radar watching to see what develops and where.

You can see the area of low pressure spinning up along the west coast now on satellite too :

Larbre34

A stonking 15.2mm precip in the last hour at Newport, somebody is still getting wet!

whitebriar

Meanwhile..sunny and windy and a balmy 23c in Arklow,not a drop of rain in the last month.
Well that's not strictly true,it rained for 30 seconds twice.
Even the nettles are dying.
Please,rain for wexford and south wicklow.

cml387

Is there something nasty approaching from the south?
Looking at Sat24 just now a larger area of white seems on it's way.

torrentum

cml387 wrote: »

Is there something nasty approaching from the south?
Looking at Sat24 just now a larger area of white seems on it's way.

I see it. Heading up on a track over waterford kilkenny carlow?

cml387

torrentum wrote: »

I see it. Heading up on a track over waterford kilkenny carlow?

It shows lightning as well on meteocentre

Larbre34

Nice track for a drenching of the South East and South Midlands around 7pm

Reiketsu

Very heavy shower here at the moment, no thunder and lighting though.

JanuarySnowstor

cml387 wrote: »

Is there something nasty approaching from the south?
Looking at Sat24 just now a larger area of white seems on it's way.

Interesting, will it miss and head for wales though??

ninebeanrows

Still appears to me as if a squall line is going to now rapidly develop not too far from the forecast position...

dopolahpec

I can't see anything of note on radar or satellite. Intensity dropping off everywhere. Another almost rainless day in Dublin. I work in wastewater and man do the sewers need a flush at this stage.

maquiladora

cml387 wrote: »

Is there something nasty approaching from the south?
Looking at Sat24 just now a larger area of white seems on it's way.

I'm keeping an eye on it. Its just sneaking into radar view now and still producing lightning.

Oscar Bravo

Just cleared through in Castlebar now ,sun out.

I think the system moving up now will hit Laois Offaly etc, the usual and avoid Carlow Kildare etc, the usual.

I doubt there is a thunderstorm in it, maybe a flash or two, its too windy if there was it would blow over in 20 mins.

Met Eireann are useless.

They rely too much on computer models these days than good old meteorology.

I wonder how much global warming co2'is in the guesstimating of these forecasts ?

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still appears to me as if a squall line is going to now rapidly develop not too far from the forecast position...

It might still happen, that area just west of Ennis is picking up in the past few minutes.

The model was a bust in a sense that it was showing an already establish line of thunderstorms for this time. It may be just that the timing was off, we'll see.

Interesting stuff pushing up from the south now too.

JanuarySnowstor

One ingredient missing today is decent heat.
If the sun had popped it's head out the heat would have gotten going and possibly some thunderstorms
Let's give it the evning to see!

maquiladora

You can see the top left of that big cell pushing up from the south in radar range now.

Trail of lightning showing the motion.

Penname

That's interesting off the south coast. A lot of lightning from it. Keeping an eye on it and hoping it can maintain some strength up through the east midlands. (Poss. wishful thinking)

dacogawa

Nice sparks about 150km of the south coast now, I wonder will it hit the east ???

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Larbre34

If it doesn't alter track its on a direct route up the M9.

Would be nice to see it in Dublin, apart from the boring day we've had so far, a lot of areas missed out on some rain yesterday evening and the gardens are parched!

MiNdGaM3

I'm sure I heard a long rumble of thunder while out 15 minutes ago. Anyone else in Cork catch it?

sunbabe08

didn't hear any thing.

according to my weather app, 60% of thunderstorms in the next 4 hours :D

maquiladora

It's a big multicellular thunderstorm about 200km wide. There are numerous active cells inside it now. Whether it'll still be active by the time it reaches the coast, we'll see...