Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

diceyd

any action today boys?

maquiladora

diceyd wrote: »

any action today boys?

Not for the east, looks like some big showers for western counties though and some of them will probably turn thundery during the day.

weisses

cherryghost wrote: »

Plenty of lightning at the Eiffel anyway

Nice line

http://www.buienradar.nl/

dexter647

Some fantastic convection getting going down here in Laois this morning:). While we have missed out generally here this week I have really enjoyed the amazing skies we get with this weather...Next week looks good as well so fingers crossed for Laois:)

maquiladora

18,000+ strikes within a few hours.

sunbabe08

what are the chances of cork getting any decent today? because the showers that have been passing by have been fairly heavy

maquiladora

This is what it looked like from the ground at 8:30 this morning....can you imagine seeing that thing comin at ya? :eek:

http://www.infoclimat.fr/photolive-photos-meteo-163560-tonnerre-de-zeus.html#photo6

eastmayo

maquiladora wrote: »

This is what it looked like from the ground at 8:30 this morning....can you imagine seeing that thing comin at ya? :eek:

http://www.infoclimat.fr/photolive-photos-meteo-163560-tonnerre-de-zeus.html#photo6

Wow now thats a cloud.

sunbabe08

maquiladora wrote: »

This is what it looked like from the ground at 8:30 this morning....can you imagine seeing that thing comin at ya? :eek:

http://www.infoclimat.fr/photolive-photos-meteo-163560-tonnerre-de-zeus.html#photo6

i would mostly likely squeal with delight:D

thebiglewbowski

This is what it looked like from the ground at 8:30 this morning....can you imagine seeing that thing comin at ya? :eek:

And this is from 100 km away :pac:

Amazing pic Maq, just goes to show, Mother Nature is the biggest/bestest artist in the world:)

MiNdGaM3

Here in South Tipp, it just turned very dark, and in the last minute has begun bucketing down, proper torrential stuff.

Camera to the ready!

Iancar29

Have to go to works...



Tomorrow is looking NICE for widespread action . I'll be home from 1/2pm 2moro to let the storms unfold before my eyes once again!

whiteandlight

Is this some kind of wierd mini tornado? It was very clearly defined against the cloud and kind of evaporated/dissolved after a bit

tylercollins

tomorrow looking like another good day for some action over most of Ireland!

MiNdGaM3

Got some nice structure from earlier on...

redsteveireland

Musicmental85 wrote: »

Is this some kind of wierd mini tornado? It was very clearly defined against the cloud and kind of evaporated/dissolved after a bit

My neck hurts after that!

Yeah definitely looks like a funnel cloud of sorts.

Deank

Some pics taken yesterday near Celbridge, impressive cloud formations.

maquiladora

A rare forecast update from Estofex, new Level 3 area added in the south of France.

A level 3 has now been issued for south France for severe winds, large hail, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Confidence has grown that the storms which initiate during the evening across the confluence zone/cold front will produce extremely severe weather in particular damaging wind gusts. Latest NWP guidance suggests somewhat stronger synoptic scale support across the area. Given that very strong 30-35 m/s deep-layer (0-6 km) shear should overlap with abundant low-level humidity and steep lapse rates, supercell storms are forecast to develop. A threat of large or very large hail will exist with these storms. Tornadoes are also possible as the boundary layer cools. The highest threat appear to be the damaging winds that will evolve when cells transform into one or multiple bow echoes. These should move quickly to the north-northeast producing swaths of extreme winds (> 32 m/s). Overnight, the intensity of the bow echo(es) will gradually diminish.

tylercollins

Any webcam in France that I could follow?

Going to be watching this all day!

maquiladora

An early forecast for tomorrow from UKASF. Ireland under a moderate risk.

... IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, SCOTLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, SW, CS, NE + NW ENGLAND ...

Ongoing showers/thunderstorms are likely across the Celtic Sea through the early morning hours. Through Sunday, diurnal heating and cool air aloft will generate 700-1000 J/kg CAPE across Britain, and near 1500 J/kg across Ireland/Northern Ireland. Consequently, with the passage of a couple of shortwave troughs, numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop, particularly over areas with notable upslope flow and/or low level convergence. 20-30kts DLS (25kts in lowest 1km) will enable cells over western Britain to become reasonably well-organised and long-lived.
Such instability can potentially produce hail between 2.0-3.0cm in diameter in any stronger cores, and PWAT values of 25-30mm coupled with heavy downpours and 'shower training' over similar areas may result in some local flash flooding.

We'll see how things look on the 12Z models this evening.

diceyd

weird cloud outside my houseDSC_0048[1].jpg

Deank

diceyd wrote: »

weird cloud outside my houseDSC_0048[1].jpg

Tornado, run....:pac:

tylercollins

Deank wrote: »

Tornado, run....:pac:

yeah definitely, rain wrapped and all get to the basement now! :eek:

diceyd

a bit closer up
DSC_0049[1].jpg

maquiladora

diceyd wrote: »

a bit closer up
DSC_0049[1].jpg

A heavy rain shower. I'd hate to be walkin back from the shop with an ice cream and getting stuck under that.

Harps

Reed Timmer mentioned on facebook yesterday that there's a chance of severe tornadoes in France today, should be an interesting evening, hopefully nothing too serious

The Little Fella

First thunder of the day in Limerick

ch750536

Yep, a few flashes here.

snaps

Just had the heaviest shower of this week. So heavy lost all satellite signal apart from Ch4HD! Thats only happened in snow before. South East Mayo