Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

snaps

That original storm in France has now made head way through Belgium, Netherlands, now into North West Germany and heading for Denmark. Meanwhile another major storm system is starting up in mid west France, heading up along the coast towards the English Channel. This system looks bigger than yesterdays.

Discodog

Just on the edge of a very heavy shower 15 miles West of Galway. Lots of lower wind sheer. The upper (main) wind was SE but the low cloud was moving rapidly at 90 degrees so SW.

Discodog

Thunder west of Galway but the sky is much brighter. Seems like the thunder is on the trailing edge of the cell.

dmc17

Thunder and lightning banging away in west Clare the last few hours. Some of it quite loud with bright flashes

snaps

Thunder here now in south mayo. sky is very black too to my south.

redsteveireland

Discodog wrote: »

Thunder west of Galway but the sky is much brighter. Seems like the thunder is on the trailing edge of the cell.

Yeah it seemed to come back to life after crossing the bay.

Iancar29

Just on break In work atm .. I can see the anvil from the cell in Westmeath from here , looks great ! , wish I was up in a small plane taking shots of it !

snaps

Best thunderstorm we've had this week now, seems to be 2 centers. Not quite overhead (Ballinrobe), but 1 passing to my west and 1 just to my east. Lightening every 20 seconds or there abouts.

maquiladora

12Z GFS. Total Totals for 3pm today versus 3pm tomorrow.

R0C

snaps wrote: »

Best thunderstorm we've had this week now, seems to be 2 centers. Not quite overhead (Ballinrobe), but 1 passing to my west and 1 just to my east. Lightening every 20 seconds or there abouts.

Yep also watching it from Ballinrobe right now. Very lively storm.

Storm 10

Big clap of thunder in Galway sky pitch black to the South,drove in from Spiddal and into torrential rain thunder and lightning

Lenny5

Thunder off in the distance in Castlebar. Black skies looking promising!

Tornando9

Tomorrow looks like the best chase day in a long time. Every ingredient is there.
CAPE 1000-1500j/kg
DLS is good as is LLS so updrafts can seperate and storms can organise and become long lived.
LFC (Level of Free Convection) is about 1000ft which is great for cells to start vertical updraft early.
Lapse rates are great.
Equilibrium level is about -30°C which means towers that pop up will reach the tropopause unimpeded.
Cold pool aloft from returning polar maritime air.

Big factor for initiation is diurnal heating so we need some morning sunshine and finger crossed there is no high level cloud as is often the situation in these setups.

Did i miss anything. Cloudscapes should be great for those timelapsers out there too.

eastmayo

R0C wrote: »

Yep also watching it from Ballinrobe right now. Very lively storm.

Nothin back this side off mayo but looks very black towards ballinrobe alright.enjoy.hope we can get some this eve.dose not look like it yet

Harps

Big shower passed through 20 minutes ago, impressive to watch it and heard one distant rumble. Nothing special but third time this week

Haven't got anything here in the very south end of Kildare at all this year, few rumbles in the far distance the other night.

Not fair!

naughto

lots of thunder and lighting in castlebar with some big flashes

Tornando9

Deleted User wrote: »

Haven't got anything here in the very south end of Kildare at all this year, few rumbles in the far distance the other night.

Not fair!

Good chance that will change soon.

maquiladora

Tornando9 wrote: »

Tomorrow looks like the best chase day in a long time. Every ingredient is there.
CAPE 1000-1500j/kg
DLS is good as is LLS so updrafts can seperate and storms can organise and become long lived.
LFC (Level of Free Convection) is about 1000ft which is great for cells to start vertical updraft early.
Lapse rates are great.
Equilibrium level is about -30°C which means towers that pop up will reach the tropopause unimpeded.
Cold pool aloft from returning polar maritime air.

Big factor for initiation is diurnal heating so we need some morning sunshine and finger crossed there is no high level cloud as is often the situation in these setups.

Did i miss anything. Cloudscapes should be great for those timelapsers out there too.

I think shear isn't that good though, less than 10 m/s. I think there could be quite a lot of cells but I think most will be unicells lasting <60 mins.

cyclops999

maquiladora what are the chances of the Athlone area getting it's first thunder storm of the week tomorrow?

JeffK88

Started to rain here in Newbridge with a promising sky rain getting heavier

Tornando9

maquiladora wrote: »

I think shear isn't that good though, less than 10 m/s. I think there could be quite a lot of cells but I think most will be unicells lasting <60 mins.

The lowres isn't great for shear forecast but i think the hires will have slightly higher values, would love to see the 10-12 m/s values the Welsh are getting then its game on.

I'll take a single cells pulse storm any day over nothing..

R0C

It had brightened up again in Ballinrobe (south mayo) in past 15 minutes following a heavy shower but darker thundery looking skies seem to be moving in again now over the town.

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

maquiladora what are the chances of the Athlone area getting it's first thunder storm of the week tomorrow?

Probably a better chance than previous days, but showers are hit or miss - there could be a thunderstorm 5 miles to the west and sunshine where you are. Or there could be a storm heading your way and then it weakens 15 minutes before it passes over and it's just rain. You'll just have to keep an eye on the radar. :pac:

Larbre34

South of England about to get some serious action, could be some severe flash flooding next 6 hrs

Tornando9

The 12z is also going for PWAT of 30mm so if we do get separation some places will see some spot flooding and very high hourly totals

maquiladora

Tornando9 wrote: »

The 12z is also going for PWAT of 30mm so if we do get separation some places will see some spot flooding and very high hourly totals

HIRLAM seems to indicate storms forming at sea and pushing up from the south into the east and midlands during the day/evening.

http://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/vejrkort/

12Z NAE seems to have very little precip for us though, not sure why.

been out all afternoon, nearly fell off the chair when I saw what was on the radar for the English channel,

oh to be in south south England

Tornando9

maquiladora wrote: »

HIRLAM seems to indicate storms forming at sea and pushing up from the south into the east and midlands during the day/evening.

http://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/vejrkort/

12Z NAE seems to have very little precip for us though, not sure why.

The Hirlam seems to tie in nicely with an area of moisture convergance forecast on the GFS for the South and SE.

NAE is a worry its usually spot on at this timeframe

Suppose wait and see what the 18z hires GFS is like tonight then nowcast in the morning.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

HIRLAM seems to indicate storms forming at sea and pushing up from the south into the east and midlands during the day/evening.

http://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/vejrkort/

12Z NAE seems to have very little precip for us though, not sure why.

Wexford in with a shot so?! Haven't really been following to closely lately.