Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

Tornando9

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Wexford in with a shot so?! Haven't really been following to closely lately.

Pretty much countrywide cells based on the GFS.

Tornando9

Tornando9 wrote: »

Good chance that will change soon.

Hopefully ! Fingers crossed.

Larbre34

Larbre34 wrote: »

South of England about to get some serious action, could be some severe flash flooding next 6 hrs

I see it now, lucky Bastards !

Hopefully the rain won't be too severe though.

maquiladora

Tornando9 wrote: »

The Hirlam seems to tie in nicely with an area of moisture convergance forecast on the GFS for the South and SE.

NAE is a worry its usually spot on at this timeframe

Suppose wait and see what the 18z hires GFS is like tonight then nowcast in the morning.

I think the GFS is showing the heaviest precip going into the southwest and western half of the country more than the east. But I don't really put much faith in those, especially after Wednesday...

WRF has CAPE up to 1500-2000 in the midlands.

stooge

Rickylovesyouall, Hope you're catching some of this! The thunder gods decided it was time for some athlone action. Cell passing just northwest of athlone right now. Torrential rain and about 7-8 t&l so far. Looks to be just over portrunny right now.

stooge

stooge wrote: »

Rickylovesyouall, Hope you're catching some of this! The thunder gods decided it was time for some athlone action. Cell passing just northwest of athlone right now. Torrential rain and about 7-8 t&l so far. Looks to be just over portrunny right now.

Can ye get the camera out ? maybe a video ?

cyclops999

stooge wrote: »

Rickylovesyouall, Hope you're catching some of this! The thunder gods decided it was time for some athlone action. Cell passing just northwest of athlone right now. Torrential rain and about 7-8 t&l so far. Looks to be just over portrunny right now.

I'm in the middle of Athlone and a few drops of rain has fallen no T&L whatsoever looks like Longford could see all the action.:mad:

stooge

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can ye get the camera out ? maybe a video ?

Sorry! I normally do but it's bedtime for the little one so that's taking priority!

Cyclops, The cell passed nearly directly over the driving range on the Roscommon road and then up past rindoon

Rikand

Played golf today in athlone and we had to stop twice for t&l

Its been decent enough but it really seems to accelerate once it gets past athlone

there was some awesome circulations and convections out there

maquiladora

18Z NAE is showing very little precipitation for here. Only a few mm at most, and only 1 mm in many places for the next 30 hours...it's either very wrong or every other model is wrong...

Davaeo09

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z NAE is showing very little precipitation for here. Only a few mm at most, and only 1 mm in many places for the next 30 hours...it's either very wrong or every other model is wrong...

Whats your gut feeling, which do you trust more? :P

maquiladora

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Whats your gut feeling, which do you trust more? :P

Well it's a pretty good model most of the time.

I had a look back at it's 18Z run on Wednesday, it had 3 mm for the Dublin area over 30 hours. Phoenix Park recorded 32.6 mm on Thursday. So....maybe its best to ignore these type of charts completely. Common sense says there should be plenty of big showers around tomorrow.

Danno

No rain Thursday, 0.8mm Friday, No rain today. 12.9mm since the weather broke.

Birtles

looks to be pretty biblical for northern Germany tomorrow. be interesting to see the actual stats for this tomorrow.

Google Translate didnt covert 100 % but you get the drift!

Weather warnings: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Show RSS Version

valid from 27.07.2013 21:30 CET Until 28.07.2013 01:00 CET
Thunderstorms Awareness Level: Red
To the northeast drawing particularly on the Darß thunderstorms to the east, some with hail about 4 cm in diameter, heavy rain to 30 liters per square meter in a short time and local hurricane-force winds over 120 km / hr (33 m / s, Beaufort 12). ATTENTION! Note to potential hazards: In case of lightning can be fatal! Chance Bäumeentwurzelt and roofs can be damaged. Pay special attention to falling branches, roof tiles or objects. Flooding of basements and local roads and flooding in creeks and small rivers are possible (for details www.hochwasserzentralen.de). It can, for example, landslides you auftreten.Schließen all windows and doors! Secure outdoor objects! In particular, keep away from buildings, trees, scaffolds and power lines! Avoid the outdoor living!

valid from 27.07.2013 10:00 CET Until 28.07.2013 19:00 CET
Extreme high temperature Awareness Level: Yellow
On Saturday, a strong heat load is expected in Perceived temperatures above 33 degrees. On Sunday, an extreme heat load is expected in Perceived temperatures above 38 degrees. An exception is the immediate coast. Today is the 6th Day of the warning situation in a row.

Tornando9

Hires 12z has better DLS values 9-10m/s for north Leinster so anything that does pop up might last a bit longer.
18z lo-res has lower DLS but higher LLS no consistency in the runs so its a definate nowcast

Bsal

The WRF 18z model is predicting some very heavy showers to develop and the wind aloft is forecast to be SSW at 15-20kts so the cells will be slow moving, so expect some flash flooding in places if the model is correct.

12z


15z


18z

TheMilkyPirate

Beautiful sunny morning here, hopefully see a few heavy showers later

maquiladora

0Z GFS downgrades things a bit today.

Total Totals not as impressive :



Cape and lift at 3pm, not as good :



It still looks like there will be heavy showers this afternoon and evening, and some of them will become thunderstorms. But it's not looking like such interesting type of day than previously.

We'll see what happens, but at this stage I wouldn't expect anything too different than what we've already seen this week.

Rikand

Beautiful sunny morning, hopefully dont see any showers till after 3 pm

That was some rain that tracked up england over night and into scotland now. straight up the country, never veering away in any direction

leahyl

Absolutely pouring in Cork City at the moment!! Massive downpour!

mickger844posts

5.3mm of rain here in the last hour. Sun out now.

sunbabe08

leahyl wrote: »

Absolutely pouring in Cork City at the moment!! Massive downpour!

just woke me up. yikes

SpaceTime

Just looking out at it. That's a huge amount of water. Hopefully it's not going to do that at high tide!

The Lee has been extremely high in recent days.

H2UMrsRobinson

House over the road hit by lightening on Friday. That chimneys gonna end up in the living room if they don't get it looked at soon.

maquiladora

No major change on the 06Z GFS for today. Another slight downgrade in CAPE though.

Storm 10

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

House over the road hit by lightening on Friday. That chimneys gonna end up in the living room if they don't get it looked at soon.

Where is that house

Tornando9

maquiladora wrote: »

No major change on the 06Z GFS for today. Another slight downgrade in CAPE though.

CAPE of 1000-1400 j/kg and an LI of -4 is pretty tasty for any forecast.
Every parameter apart from shear is there.

Not sure what run the lightning wizard charts are probably the 00z but i'd take them any day.
LCL at 400-1000ft should make for some low bases and great cloudscapes.

15:00 to 18:00 looks great for the midlands and north Leinster and even some better DLS 8-10m/s

maquiladora

Tornando9 wrote: »

CAPE of 1000-1400 j/kg and an LI of -4 is pretty tasty for any forecast.
Every parameter apart from shear is there.

Not sure what run the lightning wizard charts are probably the 00z but i'd take them any day.
LCL at 400-1000ft should make for some low bases and great cloudscapes.

15:00 to 18:00 looks great for the midlands and north Leinster and even some better DLS 8-10m/s

Yep, I'm still expected big showers and some thunderstorms to develop in places, but I don't think today will be as active or widespread as it looked like it would be yesterday, its looking more similar to the types of parameters we had already this week.

It's just annoying seeing things getting downgraded a bit from yesterday.

Ogie84

Coming up on an hour of biblical style rain here in Cork , thinking of setting rice in the garden instead of grass

Tornando9

maquiladora wrote: »

It's just annoying seeing things getting downgraded a bit from yesterday.

The worst part about forecasting in Ireland we should have downgrade removed from the dictionary.

NAE looks to be struggling with this setup, very poor performance IMO