Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

maquiladora

Interesting few days ahead this week, I think there could be some high-shear/low-cape type setups on the cards.

There is very high 0-6 km shear forecast for the south early tomorrow morning, but the low level shear isn't that impressive and the 12Z GFS has backed away from showing any real instability along the south/southeast coast. Could be interesting further south of us though on the south coast of England, I'd expect Estofex to cover that in their forecast for tomorrow.

For us it looks like Wednesday and Thursday might be interesting but too far away to look at yet.

Rougies

weisses wrote: »

Why not just enjoy the weather ??

Because us vultures need some thunderstorm footage from him!

Gonzo

had some decent rumbles between 12.30 and 1pm but thought we would get alot more, seems like Naas, parts of Wicklow, North Meath and Louth were the places to be today! Lots of potential to come over next week especially in the east with temperatures generally staying between 19 and 23C for the forseeable future.

Tornando9

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting few days ahead this week, I think there could be some high-shear/low-cape type setups on the cards.

There is very high 0-6 km shear forecast for the south early tomorrow morning, but the low level shear isn't that impressive and the 12Z GFS has backed away from showing any real instability along the south/southeast coast. Could be interesting further south of us though on the south coast of England, I'd expect Estofex to cover that in their forecast for tomorrow.

For us it looks like Wednesday and Thursday might be interesting but too far away to look at yet.

Seen that too Maq the deep layer shear is insane. I always say low CAPE high shear is my favourite setup.
I have often watched with envy similar setups up north and then seen some of the structures posted on UKWW.

Maybe a cheeky low topped supercell for the SE tomorrow.........?

Looks like an interesting day for some..

mickger844posts

Tornando9 wrote: »

Seen that too Maq the deep layer shear is insane. I always say low CAPE high shear is my favourite setup.
I have often watched with envy similar setups up north and then seen some of the structures posted on UKWW.

Maybe a cheeky low topped supercell for the SE tomorrow.........?

Looks like an interesting day for some..

It would be nice to see some action in the South East as we have had very little in the last week or so. Still 24 days in a row of 20c plus max temps is something to enjoy too

Bejubby

Is it just for the morning the SE could get some action or the whole day?

maquiladora

UKASF forecast for tomorrow has a slight risk for the northern half of the country and a moderate risk for the far northeast, better shear will help the lifespan of storms compared to the past few days. :

.. SCOTLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, IRELAND, N ENGLAND, N WALES ...

Proximity to upper low with cool mid-levels and diurnal heating will generate some 300-700 J/kg CAPE. Consequently scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop through the day, slow-moving in places. Some 30-40kts of DLS will enable showers/storms to become well organised, perhaps forming distinct lines/bands at times. Hail of 1.0-1.5cm in diameter is possible in any stronger cores, particularly in areas with low-level convergence. Given low LCLs, particularly across Northern Ireland, there is the potential for perhaps a funnel or weak tornado.

They mention the (low) potential of a low-topped supercell in southern England dues to very high wind shear.

... S ENGLAND ...

Ahead/along the frontal boundary and near/just ahead of the surface low centre, an overlap of strong SRH, 50-60kts DLS (30-40kts LLS) and a dry intrusion in the mid-levels provides a (rather low) potential for an isolated, low-topped supercell during the afternoon and early evening hours, running eastwards across southern counties of England. Despite most models suggesting the potential for an isolated cell to develop, there remains some notable inter-model divergence in the exact placement of the frontal boundary, and therefore those areas with the best potential. Such a cell may be capable of producing some moderate-sized hail and strong gusty winds, with the potential for a tornado given backed low-level winds, strong LLS and rather low LCLs. Have therefore included an ISOL for this low potential.

Super-Rush

Absolute monsoon conditions here at the moment.

Came out of nowhere.

Iancar29

A nice trip to howth this afternoon while some nice cells headed our way across the bay. Some nice rumbles too but no visible lightning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RX0cqupWlh0

Heyes

Super-Rush wrote: »

Absolute monsoon conditions here at the moment.

Came out of nowhere.

Where are you

Grandeeod

Heyes wrote: »

Where are you

I'd say Carlow judging by the time of the post.

lolie

Wow! Impressive amount of sparks in the past week.

maquiladora

I'd say we'd have a Level 2 from Estofex on Thursday if the 18Z GFS was right.

No point posting the charts because details will probably change by then.

Tornando9

maquiladora wrote: »

I'd say we'd have a Level 2 from Estofex on Thursday if the 18Z GFS was right.

No point posting the charts because details will probably change by then.

Positivity Maq plenty of time for an upgrade yet....

lolie

Few pics from today and yesterday, nearly all the action passed to the east of here.



Bit of mammatus.




Bit of thunder from yesterday, only sheet but a few nice rumbles.

Super-Rush

Heyes wrote: »

Where are you

Sorry i'm in Carlow.

vickers209

Estofex only going with a 15% chance for us tomorrow

maquiladora

vickers209 wrote: »

Estofex only going with a 15% chance for us tomorrow

Yep, I think a fairly isolated, low risk tomorrow outside of east Ulster which could see some decent storms.

Harps

A couple of sudden torrential downpours on the Donegal coast in the past couple of hours, no thunder but unusual to have such heavy showers moving in from the west at this time of year, usually something we see in late Autumn/early Winter

Some beefy looking showers headed for the west coast in the next few hours as well

Super-Rush

Daybreak will be interesting in Galway

snaps

Flashes and rumbles here in Mayo. Very very heavy rain too the last 20 minutes.

eastmayo

snaps wrote: »

Flashes and rumbles here in Mayo. Very very heavy rain too the last 20 minutes.

Where in mayo...very heavy rain here but no thunder

Storm 10

Unreal rain in Galway

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Super-Rush wrote: »

Sorry i'm in Carlow.

Ha, don't be sorry , we all have to come from somewhere :pac:

seven_eleven

lolie wrote: »

Wow! Impressive amount of sparks in the past week.

I always find those random single lightning strikes in the middle of the ocean or in greenland to be really interesting. Seems crazy. Dunno why

Iancar29

Still early days in terms of convective forecasts but as Maq mentioned yesterday.


06z still gives a Moderate Severe storm risk from the Western half of the country .

Models still unsure on the exact strength of Cape and instability currently but it looks to be in the high 100s at least and with some -3 LI broadly.

THis coupled with 22m/s 0-6km shear along with roughly 12m/s 0-1km shear. There is some potential there for a low topped supercell with some hail and possible funnel clouds / weak tornado.

Could all change again on the next run but good to see on the charts none the less.




EDIT : :eek:

hoodwinked

crazy rain in Cork city right now, any chance of thunder and lightning?

tylercollins

Nice squall line developing on west of Ireland travelling East/North East.

sunbabe08

hoodwinked wrote: »

crazy rain in Cork city right now, any chance of thunder and lightning?

Same here in youghal. No thunder or lightening :-(

OldRio

It seems the drought is over in Leitrim.
Biblical amount of rain at the moment.
Is that an ark going past the window?

Sorry forgot to add no t or l