Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

maquiladora

Check out Tony Gilbert's post this morning :

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/99020-convective-outlook-weds-31st-july-2013/page__pid__867803#entry867803

pad199207

I guess we would need solar heating to rev things up? something a lot of us dont have atm!

SpaceTime

Looks more like your traditional Irish seriously heavy rain in Cork City at the moment. Not very thundery looking, just a sustained deluge.

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

I guess we would need solar heating to rev things up? something a lot of us dont have atm!

The GFS shows instability building in the southwest over the next few hours as the warm front pushes north. If that happens then things might get interesting, if it doesn't happen then it's a total bust.

We'll see soon if the instability is still shown on the 06Z GFS, and we'll see ourselves from the radar/satellite later if anything actually happens.

Today's (Level 1) Estofex forecast : http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2013080106_201307310502_1_stormforecast.xml

pad199207

maquiladora wrote: »

The GFS shows instability building in the southwest over the next few hours as the warm front pushes north. If that happens then things might get interesting, if it doesn't happen then it's a total bust.

We'll see soon if the instability is still shown on the 06Z GFS, and we'll see ourselves from the radar/satellite later if anything actually happens.

Today's (Level 1) Estofex forecast : http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2013080106_201307310502_1_stormforecast.xml

cheers Maq, but honestly its a thin line imo

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

cheers Maq, but honestly its a thin line imo

Yep, it could easily not happen. For what it's worth I do see a slight clearing pushing into the far southwest now right where the hi res 0Z model showed CAPE starting to build over the next couple of hours.

06Z is just out and if anything it shows a wider area of CAPE at 12pm.

Edit : And Shannon radar goes down.....oh dear.

blackbird99

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just noticed both radars gone, uk only it seems.
edit we're up and running again

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, it could easily not happen. For what it's worth I do see a slight clearing pushing into the far southwest now right where the hi res 0Z model showed CAPE starting to build over the next couple of hours.

06Z is just out and if anything it shows a wider area of CAPE at 12pm.

Edit : And Shannon radar goes down.....oh dear.

I agree Maq , satellite shows too much cloud to contend with from the warm front but conditions are there if things do clear a bit .


Tomorrow's risk i think is still holding as severe for the West .
Lightning wizard charts aren't updated straight away but even the 00z shows very strong signals for Low topped supercells with large hail.

Very strong deep convergence and shear vectors are great!

GONNA BE AN INTERESTING DAY !! .... wait ... no... it aint.... coz i dont drive and i don't live in the west... GOD DAMMIT!! lol

snowstreams

Going to be an interesting Ladies day at the Galway races so!

MrFrisp

SpaceTime wrote: »

Looks more like your traditional Irish seriously heavy rain in Cork City at the moment. Not very thundery looking, just a sustained deluge.

Yeah,,was very heavy most of the morning..

More or less stopped now..Clear across the City.

Wonder is the worst of it over for the day here?
.

dopolahpec

MrFrisp wrote: »

Yeah,,was very heavy most of the morning..

More or less stopped now..Clear across the City.

Wonder is the worst of it over for the day here?
.

I think the thunder risk is to increase as the day goes on after that intitial front has cleared and instability and convective potential increases.

MrFrisp

dopolahpec wrote: »

I think the thunder risk is to increase as the day goes on after that intitial front has cleared and instability and convective potential increases.

Seriously? Fantastic.

Look forward to that.

Thanks.
.

yellowlabrador

It's raining here in west cork but very warm. There's a warm wind blowing it feels tropical

cml387

Sprite from a thunderstorm over Dublin as observed by Armagh

This is from the BBC.

pad199207

New sparks off the SW coast now

Iancar29

Net Weather Issues SLIGHT RISK For the South.

SLIGHT RISK FOR IRELAND

Warm and moist airmass will advect north across Ireland and Sern UK this afternoon behind warm front lifting north, with a plume of steeper lapse rates moving in from the SW across Ireland and SW UK at the same time. If the general cloudiness across Ireland clears this afternoon from the SW, then insolation will likely create an increasingly unstable atmosphere as lapse rates steepen atop of warm/moist airmass, with CAPE values of 500-900 j/kg possibly realised. If convection does develop, it will do so in an environment characterised by moderate deep layer shear with values of 30 to 50 knts and low-level shear of 20-30 knts ahead of approaching cold front. So any storm developing may have the potential to rapidly organise into line segments towards the cold front, with perhaps a supercell or two where cells are more discrete. Any storms may bring the risk of strong wind gusts, excessive rainfall with risk of flash-flooding and hail. Given low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCLs) below 600m, an increasingly moist boundary layer and marked backing of surface winds, strong storm-relative helicity could mean stronger updrafts produce rotating mesocyclones - perhaps lowering to produce a tornado or two. Therefore have issued a SLIGHT risk for Ireland.

Very much in line with what i put up yesterday





COME ON SUNSHINE!

Gonzo

horrible day here, pouring rain, grey skies, feeling cool, a real feeling of the summer days from summer 2007-2012. Hopefully there wont be many days like this till late september!

sunbabe08

Oh come on thunderstorms I came home from youghal to see sum action :-):-)

dopolahpec

pad199207 wrote: »

New sparks off the SW coast now

Can't see them on netweather or sat24 lightning detectors.

RobertKK

Starting to get brighter here in north Kilkenny. Sun trying to appear.

Jpmarn

It's all quite at the moment from all the lightning detection websites.
http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html
http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page=1&subpage_0=15

dopolahpec

All of the previous days when there was thunder you could feel the potential in the air. With 15C and sloppy rain in Dublin it definitely doesn't feel potent at all at 2pm.

maquiladora

Valentia 12Z sounding does not support CAPE values shown by the GFS. Looking like a bust for the south today, it all hinged on that instability that doesnt appear to be there now.

Btw, Tushy from Estofex is on Today FM news talking about tornado risk tomorrow. Was someone at Today FM reading this thread? lol

Iancar29

Hahaha ya serious?! , what did they say?

Definitely stalking this page they are.

Tornando9

maquiladora wrote: »

Btw, Tushy from Estofex is on Today FM news talking about tornado risk tomorrow. Was someone at Today FM reading this thread? lol

Dying to know what they said..?

sunbabe08

Its warm down here in cork. Something is brewing

Deank

sunbabe08 wrote: »

Its warm down here in cork. Something is brewing

It's horrible in Dublin 15c and grey meh weather, it's the first really overcast horrible day since June.

maquiladora

Tornando9 wrote: »

Dying to know what they said..?

Will probably be in the end on the 3pm bulletin again, its very short.

Edit : Basically, 'ingredients are there tomorrow for organised thunderstorms that could produce a few tornado events' and a quote from Met Eireann that its notoriously hard to predict a tornado.

Supercell

Not much going on today, coolest since June here, overcast with occasional light rain or drizzle , just 3.2mm recorded. Nothing much of anything. Next!

maquiladora

Supercell wrote: »

Not much going on today, coolest since June here, overcast with occasional light rain or drizzle , just 3.2mm recorded. Nothing much of anything. Next!

19 degrees here in the south with 100% humidity, moisture laden air but not cool at all.