Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

MrFrisp

sunbabe08 wrote: »

Its warm down here in cork. Something is brewing

21.1c by my barometer now.

Is that enough I wonder?
.

diceyd

i took this in work this morning about 5.30,see what you guys think.
DSC_0058[1].jpg

maquiladora

Update from Tony Gilbert on why things haven't gone as planned for the south today (as so often happens...)

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/99020-convective-outlook-weds-31st-july-2013/page__view__findpost__p__867841

maquiladora

Since there isn't a whole lot happening today, here's an interesting read of a past event. A Met Eireann report on the March 1995 Summerhill tornado, it also covers a few other tornado events at the end :

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Mar1995_Tornado.PDF

NegativeCreep

maquiladora wrote: »

Since there isn't a whole lot happening today, here's an interesting read of a past event. A Met Eireann report on the March 1995 Summerhill tornado, it also covers a few other tornado events at the end :

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Mar1995_Tornado.PDF

I remember there was a tornado in Blanchardstown a few years ago. It blew part of the roof off the Aquatic Centre and there was a bush uprooted in my garden Frightened the shite out of me because I was really young. I didn't see the actual funnel though

glossy

NegativeCreep wrote: »

I remember there was a tornado in Blanchardstown a few years ago. It blew part of the roof off the Aquatic Centre and there was a bush uprooted in my garden Frightened the shite out of me because I was really young. I didn't see the actual funnel though

gosh yeah remember that, just happen to look out the window and seen going by, across the field.

NegativeCreep

glossy wrote: »

gosh yeah remember that, just happen to look out the window and seen going by, across the field.

It was terrifying :pac:

cyclops999

Serious amount of rain has fallen in the Athlone area in the last few hours.

lolie

Tornando9 wrote: »

Dying to know what they said..?

Didnt say a whole lot, short and sweet. Only way to upload the mp3 was to put on youtube.

maquiladora

The west awake. TT index touching 57 on the Atlantic coast tomorrow on the 12Z GFS...



As we've seen today though, take what the models show with a pinch of salt until things actually start happening or not.

RobertKK

When I was a child, a while back now, I remember on my uncle's farm in north Kilkenny where a wall was knocked down, gates thrown around the place, a heavy roller turned around and my uncle couldn't get his head around of what happened very close to his house.
He thought maybe a large flood or something had come, but there was no sign of a flood or water.
The only thing that could have done it was a tornado.
He was lucky it hadn't hit the house.

lolie

maquiladora wrote: »

The west awake. TT index touching 57 on the Atlantic coast tomorrow on the 12Z GFS...



As we've seen today though, take what the models show with a pinch of salt until things actually start happening or not.

The brother in law and few family talkin about climbing croagh patrick this week, i take it they should stay well away from it tomorrow.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

The west awake. TT index touching 57 on the Atlantic coast tomorrow on the 12Z GFS...



As we've seen today though, take what the models show with a pinch of salt until things actually start happening or not.

Atm im thinking organised band of storms will get going along the west coast , possibly line out then , but any isolated cells that form ahead of them more inland , would take advantage of the better 0-1km approaching 25kts and possibly produce a tornado.

Some crazy deep convergence off the west coast , spouts and possibility of the coast too.

€1 coin size hail anyone?????

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Atm im thinking organised band of storms will get going along the west coast , possibly line out then , but any isolated cells that form ahead of them more inland , would take advantage of the better 0-1km approaching 25kts and possibly produce a tornado.

Some crazy deep convergence off the west coast , spouts and possibility of the coast too.

€1 coin size hail anyone?????

Could be an interesting day alright... if things don't downgrade too much. 12Z improves conditions further east overnight Thursday/early hours of Friday a bit aswell (though CIN might be a problem there).

If I wasn't going to Blur tomorrow I'd be very tempted to head west. You should pick a spot and get an early train over there Ian. Believe. :pac:

lolie wrote: »

The brother in law and few family talkin about climbing croagh patrick this week, i take it they should stay well away from it tomorrow.

Tomorrow probably wouldn't be the best day for that.

Iancar29

RTE Just tweeted it now too... lol


RTÉ News ‏@rtenews 37m
Tornadoes predicted for Ireland - EU forecasters http://bit.ly/12FD5yy pic.twitter.com/UelvKtBZHu


Id need someone with a car Maq once there!!

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

RTE Just tweeted it now too... lol


RTÉ News ‏@rtenews 37m
Tornadoes predicted for Ireland - EU forecasters http://bit.ly/12FD5yy pic.twitter.com/UelvKtBZHu


Id need someone with a car Maq once there!!

Thats the kiss of death now so. Wrap it up folks, sunshine and blue skies tomorrow.

Iancar29

I wonder if they will mention it on the Six one now .... coz then whoever is on forecasting today will HAVE to mention some sort of warning then!!! lol

cyclops999

ESTOFEX have an extended Level 1 warning issued for ireland August 1st 06.00 - 2nd 06.0

Iancar29

Must ... hold... back... temptation .... to ... post... gif..... !!! lol

Harps

The hi-res models weren't showing anything much for today so wasn't really getting my hopes up, tonight/tomorrow though looks more interesting with heavy showers predicted late tonight and into the morning. Most of the action looks to be off the west coast but once things get going then something would surely kick off over land

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

I wonder if they will mention it on the Six one now .... coz then whoever is on forecasting today will HAVE to mention some sort of warning then!!! lol

I hope not. There's a danger of this being blown out of proporation by too much media coverage. People hear 'tornado' and they have an image of a Great Plains twister in their head, not the kind of thing that there is any chance of happening tomorrow. We get Level 1 Estofex warnings a couple of times a year here, it's not like it's a Level 3 or anything. :pac:

cyclops999

NRA weather station M6 Athlone 44mm rain

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

I hope not. There's a danger of this being blown out of proporation by too much media coverage. People hear 'tornado' and they have an image of a Great Plains twister in their head, not the kind of thing that there is any chance of happening tomorrow. We get Level 1 Estofex warnings a couple of times a year here, it's not like it's a Level 3 or anything. :pac:

Very true , spoken like the words from Gerry Murphy. I'll be happy to see at least a red warning for thunderstorms tomorrow


NO ONE WANT TO CHASE WITH ME!?!

cyclops999

Not seen rain like this in a very long time its coming down like stair rods....

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Very true , spoken like the words from Gerry Murphy. I'll be happy to see at least a red warning for thunderstorms tomorrow

There is no red warning for thunderstorms, only orange.

Iancar29

:P

squarecircles

should i expect to see any thunderstorm activity here tomorrow???,living on the coast in Mayo,near louisburgh,haven't seen any action at all here during the past week.

jimmynokia

Im up for getting a birds eye view where is the best place to be though for this event.?

Iancar29

jimmynokia wrote: »

Im up for getting a birds eye view where is the best place to be though for this event.?

In a carmobilo first thing in the morning and heading to SLIGO ,.... first to collect me of course ... i gots petrol moneys

maquiladora

I'd advise to hang on until the Estofex forecast tonight/tomorrow morning and the 0Z models early tomorrow before deciding about heading anywhere. While this is looking likely to happen at the moment, we've seen potential setups go totally wrong twice now in the past week or so, and you only really know on the day itself if thats going to happen.

This isn't like a windstorm approaching the west coast where you know for a fact it's going to happen and roughly where and how strong a day or two in advance. Convective weather is very dynamic, it's very easy for models to over/under-estimate what may happen.