Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

Oscar Bravo

just the useual ones I have http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/ http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_3=3

ThaitaniumM

http://www.sat24.com/gb and yes there was :P

helloyeshi

Thanks chaps. Hopefully I get a good show here tomorrow.

Deank

helloyeshi wrote: »

And I'd swear there was a flash of lightning there now. Can anyone link me to 'that site' where I can see lightning strike data please?

There yeah go, there was one strike out that way a while ago.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

cyclops999

Meteoalarm have Amber alert for Connaught & Munster tomorrow

Tornando9

Tomorrows system looks great on the SAT24 loop and is kicking up cells with lightning miles out into the Atlantic.
I feel a sicky coming on

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

Meteoalarm have Amber alert for Connaught & Munster tomorrow

Yep. Just for rainfall though.

"From late Wednesday to late Thursday, between 40 and 60mm of rain is expected to accumulate generally, with up to 70mm possible over high ground. Now that soil is mostly saturated, this may lead to significant flooding."

Iancar29

Posting this again : Am free for anyone wishing to chase from the dublin area ( could catch a train though if starting from outside dublin )


Will help split the cost of petrol and will be the " radar technician " for the chase

Anyone free and up for it let me know ... DYING TO GET OUT to see something 2moro!!

Rock Lesnar

lads will this effect us in leinster or is it mainly a risk for the south and west?

Iancar29

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

lads will this effect us in leinster or is it mainly a risk for the south and west?

We may get something towards evening .


18z downgrades cape and LI but still keeps everything else in play , increasing some low level shear post frontal .

Also CIN values have decreased somewhat so initiation shouldnt be that difficult.

vickers209

Iancar29 wrote: »

Posting this again : Am free for anyone wishing to chase from the dublin area ( could catch a train though if starting from outside dublin )


Will help split the cost of petrol and will be the " radar technician " for the chase


Anyone free and up for it let me know ... DYING TO GET OUT to see something 2moro!!

Would ya not save up a couple of hundred and buy an old storm chaser of a car lol

maquiladora

CAPE is slighly downgraded on the 18Z GFS for the first part of the tomorrow (and downgraded further from yesterday's values), but later in the day other values get upgraded on this run.



As always, we'll see what happens on the day.

lolie

Any chance of any action tomorrow night looking at the cape charts.

weisses

Any chance of some action in my area ? ... Or will it intensify when its further inland ?

maquiladora

Yellow Met Eireann warning has been removed, so expect a new one soon (or early in the morning), probably Orange since it's already on Meteoalarm. That's just for rainfall though.

Oneiric 3

Anyone know what ESTOFEX are saying for tomorrow? Can't get their site to load this side for some reason

Deank

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Anyone know what ESTOFEX are saying for tomorrow? Can't get their site to load this side for some reason

That's because is Maq and Ian on the site and both have the F5 button held down with blue-tack.

Tornando9

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Anyone know what ESTOFEX are saying for tomorrow? Can't get their site to load this side for some reason

Probably introducing a new level 4 alarm just for us..

Iancar29

Deank wrote: »

That's because is Maq and Ian on the site and both have the F5 button held down with blue-tack.

Its WHITE tac actually!!! :rolleyes:

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Anyone know what ESTOFEX are saying for tomorrow? Can't get their site to load this side for some reason

It's just an an early extended forecast from 5am this morning, they haven't put out an updated forecast for tomorrow yet so these opinions might be different now...

Initiation over Ireland will be most probable due to the eastward sliding cold front and the placement beneath the left exit region of a powerful 40 / 50 m/s 500 / 300 hPa jet streak. 20 to 30 m/s DLS overspread the cold front and should offer plenty of shear for temporarily organized storms. The near parallel alignement of the cold front to the jets should support rapid thunderstorm clustering and upscale growth with numerous clusters affecting and leaving Ireland to the north. A sub-1000 hPa depression just west of Ireland increases ageostrophic deflection of the BL wind field, so substantial LL shear (15 m/s and 200 m^2/s^2 SRH-1) is forecast. Combined with LCLs blow 800 m, an enhanced tornado risk exists with any more discrete thunderstorm. Otherwise, severe wind gusts and flash flood producing rain is possible. The level 1 was extended towards E-Ireland mainly for the rainfall risk.

downonthefarm

no chance of an f-5 hitting montrose so/

Weathering

Had a good old laugh to myself tonight. I was visiting my granny and she told me that there was a tornado in Milan and it's coming here tomorrow (She thinks it's the same one) . Now if there is a tornado in Ireland tomorrow I'll never hear the end of it ha

sunbabe08

my weather apps are telling me chance of thunderstorms for cork is at 60% for 1 and 2am.

Cogsy88

Met Éireann upgraded to orange.

keith16

It's mad seeing the ESTOFEX graphic on the RTE website.

It's a pity that RTE/ME don't go into a bit more detail on the weather forecasts. It also strikes me as odd that ME aren't the source for the story.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0731/465720-tornado-warning/

Bejubby

Lightening on sat 24 now heading for the south.

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

RuthieRose

Cogsy88 wrote: »

Met Éireann upgraded to orange.

I thought it was just a national blight warning (didn't see the comma!) and everyone's spuds were doomed!!!!!!!!!

maquiladora

Weathering wrote: »

Had a good old laugh to myself tonight. I was visiting my granny and she told me that there was a tornado in Milan and it's coming here tomorrow (She thinks it's the same one) . Now if there is a tornado in Ireland tomorrow I'll never hear the end of it ha

That was indeed a proper tornado in Milan. I remember Estofex put a Level 3 over Northern Italy the morning that happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRL0siufqDw

Gonzo

very strange day, most miserable wet, cool day we've had since early June, barely making it to 13C all afternoon with relentless rain and grey skies, cloud is now breaking and it's almost midnight and close to 20C. Back to windows open and light bed covers for tonight. Ive a feeling tomorrow will be dissapointing in thunder terms, propably no more exciting than any day we've had over past week.

Oscar Bravo

Lets hear what Met Eireann have to say over on RTE Radio 1/ Sky 0160