Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

Tornando9

KABOOM....

maquiladora

DISCUSSION

Ireland and surroundings

Warm air advection will affect the British Isles for most of the period. A plume of moist air masses originating from the subtropical Atlantic will spread north-east and continues northward until Friday. This air mass indicates weak lapse rates as indicated by latest soundings.

Main focus of convective activity will be the low-level jet ahead of the cold front that enters Ireland in the evening hours. The strong moisture transport within this low-level jet will be accompanied by strong QG lift due to a short-wave trough embedded in the strong mid-level jet that exceeds 25 m/s in the afternoon hours. Therefore, the maritime air will likely become unstable with moist adiabatic lapse rates in mid-levels and slightly steeper lapse rate in the boundary-layer in response to diurnal heating.

Current thinking is that showers and thunderstorms will develop in the warm air advection regime. These storms will have a good potential to organize in an environment with 10 m/s 0-3 km vertical wind shear and also around 10 m/s bulk shear in the lowest kilometre. The rather broad overlap of low-level vertical wind shear and CAPE supports a threat of supercells capable of producing tornadoes. These storms may also produce large hail. Furthermore, bowing storms may form with the main threat being severe wind gusts. Highest potential is expected across western Ireland. Late in the period, the cold front moves eastward. A few severe wind reports may still be possible until the morning hours.

Before anyone goes nuts, when they say 'supercell' they mean low topped or 'mini' supercells - not the giant storms that happen in the US plains.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Before anyone goes nuts, when they say 'supercell' they mean low topped or 'mini' supercells - not the giant storms that happen in the US plains.

Not exactly , a supercell basically is a thunderstorm that rotates ... Hence the chance of tornadoes .

But yes , don't be expecting country size cells exploding over us ... Though that would be nice all the same

Off to bed... Maybe dream of chasing the storms

maquiladora

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Unfortunately we don't have the same amount of access to the models Met Eireann use as we do for models like the GFS, which Met Eireann do not use. The GFS supports hail 2-3cm being possible. Thunderstorm potential may not look that strong on the models Met Eireann are using.

maquiladora

Lightning seems to be picking up close to the southwest coast in the past 10 minutes.

Rikand

What does the " K " mean in those Estofex charts ?

maquiladora

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

What does the " K " mean in those Estofex charts ?

It's just the thunderstorm symbol.

shootie

Tornando9 wrote: »

KABOOM....

Strong username to post content ratio.

dopolahpec

So what's the storm potential looking like today? I see heavy rain in a band running from Cork to Dublin. Is this the band that is supposed to liven up as the day goes on?

jimmynokia

Well fcuk that had to go to work. But I've to travel to Athlone so could proceed from there if action begins.

Ogie84

Was looking at http://www.sat24.com/en/eu and that seems to have picked up some strikes off the South West Coast around 7:45am

F35

Lightning inbound so it seems

Kevok

Is that a supercell? And if so, where'd it get the convection over the atlantic to form?

Iancar29

The band of rain from cork to dublin currently is the cold front.

Its when that passes through , or to the west of it that we should start seeing things happen this afternoon.


Nice cell out at see...

Shall be interesting to see if that skirts up the west coast.

GOod luck today everyone .

CAPE and LI charts looking good on the 00z

leahyl

Iancar29 wrote: »

The band of rain from cork to dublin currently is the cold front.

Its when that passes through , or to the west of it that we should start seeing things happen this afternoon.


Nice cell out at see...

Shall be interesting to see if that skirts up the west coast.

GOod luck today everyone .

CAPE and LI charts looking good on the 00z

Is there a good chance of thunderstorms for Cork today so Ian?

maquiladora

I'm wary of being so dependent on the GFS after it got yesterday's potential wrong.

WRF has downgraded CAPE values from it's previous runs and introduced a bit more convective inhibition than the GFS shows.

CAPE doesn't look impressive on the ECM at all, 200-400 J/kg.

Hmmmm.

Thats an impressive storm out at sea on Sat24 now. Looks like a strong multicell.

Iancar29

Strike detected in Kerry.

RuthieRose

Folks can I ask everyone post their location. I'm on the iPhone. No locations shown. thanks

Here it is at 5am



8am



Looks promising lads what ye think ?

However it looks like it will move over the west only if anything ?

It looks like it's heading slightly off the west coast so no action in the East, this is typical.

Rikand

Deleted User wrote: »

It looks like it's heading slightly off the west coast so no action in the East, this is typical.

yeah, cause people in the east didnt get any action at all over the last 2 weeks.... :rolleyes:

Well I got nothing all summer. Though I'm technically in the South East near Carlow Town.

So forgive me if I'm pissed but seriously, I was hoping for some real action today but it looks unlikely.

Geomy

Nothing much happening in North Clare.
The local river is getting plenty of water alright. ..

dopolahpec

Ha ha this is getting like a passive aggressive where's my snow thread. Lord save us

RuthieRose

All quiet in Galway at the moment. Very warm, very muggy, slight breeze. Hopefully the calm before the storm!!!!

errlloyd

On the bus in Dublin 4, no rain here. Feels like the calm before though, my head hurts and I wasn't drinking, so I can only presume pressure...

fryup

is the tornado alert still active??

(i'm down in my bunker as i type this)

maquiladora

Everything still looks good for the west on the 06Z GFS anyway. Probably a slight improvement on the 0Z at first glance.

Deank

The South and South West are in for an interesting few hours.