Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

Iancar29

Still looking alright for tomorrow for more potential sparks .

Shear not great though to go with the nice instability .

So in estofex style , id probably go with a 50% prob. for the west , perhaps the whole country.

Then at least a level one with risk of funnels , possible tornado or 2 in England as they ( ONCE AGAIN ) are hogging all the decent low level AND deep layer shear to get some long lived storms twisting!

Interesting though instability seeing to lay around a bit late into the evening so possible light display here or there , id go more towards the Irish sea though . Perhaps an interesting afternoon to do a time-lapse near the coast?


Some charts this evening when the 18 z comes out

thebaz

is ther any end to this horrible damp gloomy weather - i hate it - the Indo said we are heading for the wettest October on record. Horrible stuff :mad:

Rikand

thebaz wrote: »

is ther any end to this horrible damp gloomy weather - i hate it - the Indo said we are heading for the wettest October on record. Horrible stuff :mad:

In fairness, the country probably needs it.

There's a few ponds/lakes out my way that are bone dry because of the lack of rain over the last few months - they desperately need a wet month to get back up to normals levels of, you know, where they have water in them

maquiladora

Rikand wrote: »

In fairness, the country probably needs it.

There's a few ponds/lakes out my way that are bone dry because of the lack of rain over the last few months - they desperately need a wet month to get back up to normals levels of, you know, where they have water in them

Yeah, we can't complain really after a great summer and a mostly fairly dry autumn up until recently.

Ghost Train

Some lightning moving in over west cork at the moment

thebaz

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah, we can't complain really after a great summer and a mostly fairly dry autumn up until recently.

certainly hasn't been a dry autumn where I am (Dublin) - every second day has been miserable - absolutly hate it, don't care about heat , but need blue clear days regardless of temperaure

maquiladora

Estofex have a level 1 for Wales and SW England tomorrow. Ireland is covered under a wide 15% risk.

robclay26

Lightning and thunder west of trim at 21:40!

highdef

Saw that from my house SE of Enfield. Looked to be to my north which would be around the Summerhill/Rathmolyon direction

pad199207

Yep confirmed strike just west of a place called Rathmoylon

highdef

Just saw that on net weather. I think my neighbours house blocked the view of some of the lightning so I was slightly off with my guess where it was. Ffairly spot on with the distance though

robclay26

pad199207 wrote: »

Yep confirmed strike just west of a place called Rathmoylon

How did you get that information? You use a site? I'm north west of rathmoylon and here our power went for 1/10 of a sec. Frightened the living sh1te out of me! Was cleaning in kitchen when the flash illuminated up the room

vicwatson

robclay26 wrote: »

How did you get that information? You use a site? I'm north west of rathmoylon and here our power went for 1/10 of a sec. Frightened the living sh1te out of me! Was cleaning in kitchen when the flash illuminated up the room

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

robclay26

vicwatson wrote: »

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

Thanks! Never seen that site before.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Estofex have a level 1 for Wales and SW England tomorrow. Ireland is covered under a wide 15% risk.

Ah i disagree with just a 15 % for the whole country ! :mad:


Instabilty isnt the best on latest runs but shear has improved!

Strong DLS through the midlands and the instabilty from the south may kick up something enough to keep going over the country , just not a lightning active as i would like due to cape values subsiding .

But check out the Helicity values ... not bad


So a funnel or possible weak tornado cant be ruled out with any beefy looking isolated cells.

WRF model shows what i am hoping will bring some sparks my way .




Equilibrium temps near -50 in places too! so if theres any clearances , there should be some awesome looking anvils about!


So yeah , id go with a 50% for parts , with a low end level 1 for a funnel or 2

DOCARCH

Heavy pulse of rain just off the SE coast now with a few sparks embedded. http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html

redsteveireland

Another active cell looks like its heading in the direction of Waterford, it's producing some sparks out at sea.

yellowlabrador

Torrential downpour here in Dunmanway West Cork and now lighning and thunder

Red Nissan

yellowlabrador wrote: »

Torrential downpour here in Dunmanway West Cork and now lighning and thunder

Strikes showing on that link posted earlier.

mike65

Waterford had a mighty downpour a short time ago, only lasted about 3/4 minutes but it dumped a fair amount.

Iancar29

Something similar to Sunday evening along the irish sea later?



Hopefully gonna be heading there later for a timelapse if i can convince my mate. ha

Iancar29

Some earlystrikes detected near Rathdrum.

DOCARCH

Very thundery looking skies to my south now!

ninebeanrows

Very threatening skies to the south of Dublin at the moment.

V_Moth

Some threatening skies earlier on off the east Waterford coast, but all came to nothing.



View from the RV Celtic Explorer west along the Waterford coast towards the cell that is now heading towards Dublin. Didn't see any sparks though



Weather at the moment out here sunny with 20kt southerly wind.

robclay26

The sky getting pretty dark and stormy here west of trim. No thunder yet or rain , but the sky digital has been going off which wouldn't normally happen .
Let's see if some action happens

ninebeanrows

Something developing off Wicklow now, will it brush the east coast? Looks like its gathering in intensity.

Iancar29

Weathercheck wrote: »

Something developing off Wicklow now, will it brush the east coast? Looks like its gathering in intensity.

Yep , looks to be the cell the models pick up on earlier ,

surprised theres no strikes from it yet.

Its heading NNE though

Iancar29

Now THATS what you call a squall! , lucky feckers! :mad:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

Now THATS what you call a squall! , lucky feckers! :mad:

Ill watch it hit london while watching the arsenal match !