Arc 2013

Itziger

Leading Light supplemented - this is getting more interesting by the day. I'd be shocked if he wins but it does add a bit more to the race.

tryfix

Anyone know what the likely going for the Arc is predicted to be?

UrbanSea

Good to soft

diomed

I'm expecting good or good/firm on race day.

Itziger

This site predicting beautiful weather for the 3 days after!! Not much rainfall before mind. If they're right.

http://www.yr.no/place/France/Île-de-France/Paris/long.html

UrbanSea

Genuinely can't think of any Arc ran with firm in the description in the last few years. It was shocking ground last year, STS was probably the best I can think of

UrbanSea

Just found this

ground at Longchamp ahead of Sunday’s Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe returned to good to soft on Monday after overnight rain, which means that Britain’s hopes of landing one of the best and most international editions of the race in recent years are likely to rest almost entirely on Al Kazeem.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/10345508/Al-Kazeem-likely-to-carry-Britains-Prix-de-lArc-de-Triomphe-hopes-alone-as-rain-hits-The-Fugues-bid.html

kfallon

UrbanSea wrote: »

Genuinely can't think of any Arc ran with firm in the description in the last few years. It was shocking ground last year, STS was probably the best I can think of

Was it not quick enough when Danedream won it?

UrbanSea

Thought it was good ground

Harry Angstrom

Considering Danedream broke the track record, I'd say the ground would have been pretty quick.

kfallon

Will Joey be able to ride any of the Ballydoyle horse on Sunday? Last year he had to ride St Nic as he couldn't do the weight on Camelot (think it was 8-12) and surely there are big doubts about Camelot running which means the remaining entries are all 3yo's and will carry 8-12

Overthelast

Good point. He struggles to do 9st due to his physique. Unless he lobs off an arm, 8-12 looks beyond him

sting60

Nobody should have a bet until the draw is made.Horse drawn 10 and up have zero chance.

SRFC

Am I the only one that has a problem with O Brien struggling with his weight,its not right thats hes putting up over weight and ''the lads'' have been making changes to the weight rules with the turf club since he started it should be make the weight or dont ride simple as that.

ste2010

SRFC wrote: »

Am I the only one that has a problem with O Brien struggling with his weight,its not right thats hes putting up over weight and ''the lads'' have been making changes to the weight rules with the turf club since he started it should be make the weight or dont ride simple as that.

Personally I think it's unethical for jockeys have to feed on ice cubes and go into saunas to bring there weight down and it's something that seriously needs to be looked at. They should increase weights so they can have the odd McDonald or Irish roast here and there. Can you imagine all the potential jockeys they could be missing out on because of a few lbs

sting60

SRFC wrote: »

Am I the only one that has a problem with O Brien struggling with his weight,its not right thats hes putting up over weight and ''the lads'' have been making changes to the weight rules with the turf club since he started it should be make the weight or dont ride simple as that.

Trying to dig up something that will have your head scratching in relation to the weight conformation of JOB for four rides at the Curragh recently.1lb o/w at 8.12 and 1lb o/w 9.2 etc.

klairondavis

There's no harm in raising the minimum weight on the flat. Humans are getting bigger and it is unacceptable that loads of jockeys are dangerously dehydrated on racedays. There are plenty of smallish flat horses who progress to the national hunt game where they will regularly carry stones more weight over longer distances on softer ground. A few pounds more on their backs on the flat won't make too much difference.

diomed

Times and going descriptions in past Arcs.

year___Time_____Going
1920___159.00___Good
1921___152.96___Good
1922___158.78___Good
1923___158.26___Heavy
1924___160.98___Good
1925___153.96___Good
1926___152.96___Good
1927___152.90___Good
1928___158.98___Good
1929___162.94___Heavy
1930___164.98___Heavy
1931___158.96___Good
1932___164.66___Heavy
1933___161.76___Good
1934___161.82___Heavy
1935___162.64___Good
1936___158.72___Good
1937___153.88___Good
1938___159.82___Heavy
1939___none___none
1940___none___none
1941___156.26___Good
1942___157.96___Holding
1943___153.20___Holding
1944___155.00___Heavy
1945___154.82___Good
1946___153.32___Good
1947___153.42___Firm
1948___151.60___Good
1949___153.22___Good
1950___154.22___Heavy
1951___152.84___Soft
1952___159.84___Soft
1953___151.82___Good
1954___156.34___Soft
1955___155.68___Soft
1956___154.76___Heavy
1957___155.42___Good
1958___157.91___Soft
1959___155.30___Good
1960___163.96___Heavy
1961___158.44___Soft
1962___150.94___Good
1963___154.98___Soft
1964___155.50___Good
1965___155.52___Good
1966___159.80___Heavy
1967___158.20___Good
1968___155.20___Good
1969___149.00___Good
1970___149.70___Good
1971___148.30___Firm
1972___148.30___Firm
1973___155.80___Soft
1974___156.90___Heavy
1975___153.60___Soft
1976___159.40___Heavy
1977___150.60___Good
1978___156.50___Good/soft
1979___148.90___Good/soft
1980___148.00___Good/soft
1981___155.20___Good/soft
1982___157.00___Soft
1983___148.10___Firm
1984___159.10___Heavy
1985___149.50___Good/firm
1986___147.70___Good/firm
1987___146.30___Firm
1988___157.30___Good/firm
1989___150.80___Good/soft
1990___149.80___Good
1991___151.40___Good/soft
1992___159.00___Soft
1993___157.90___Soft
1994___151.10___Good/soft
1995___151.80___Good/soft
1996___149.90___Good
1997___144.60___Good/firm
1998___154.50___Soft
1999___158.50___Heavy
2000___145.80___Good
2001___156.10___Holding
2002___146.70___Good
2003___152.30___Holding
2004___145.00___Good
2005___147.40___Good/soft
2006___146.30___Good
2007___148.50___Good/soft
2008___148.80___Good/soft
2009___146.30___Good
2010___155.30___Very Soft
2011___144.49___Good
2012___157.68___Heavy

The going descriptions are often rubbish. The times are a better indicator.
Times above shown in seconds.
Notice in the 1920s there was a fashion for xxx.98 or xxx.96. And in the 1920s the going was only "good" or "heavy". Then "holding" became the "in" word.
1966 and 1967 times the same, but goings given as "heavy" and "good".
1987 to 1981 had some descriptions that didn't match times.
1992 and 1993 were both "soft". 2012 was faster but given as "heavy".

kfallon

Overthelast wrote: »

Good point. He struggles to do 9st due to his physique. Unless he lobs off an arm, 8-12 looks beyond him

Didn't A P O'B say that exact thing last year, that in order for Joey to ride Camelot they'd have to 'cut off an arm'

Btw think it's 8-11 that the 3yo's will have to carry on Sunday.

Bit off topic but O'Brien has the same horse entered for both a Maiden Hurdle and a Novice Hurdle tomorrow at Clonmel. If it takes up either of those entries I wonder who will ride it? Is he gonna give one of the daughters a spin over hurdles?

kfallon

Anyone know how to access the 5 days decs for Longchamp on Sunday. Been trying France Galop but can't find the 'entries' section

sting60

diomed wrote: »

Times and going descriptions in past Arcs.

year___Time_____Going
1920___159.00___Good
1921___152.96___Good
1922___158.78___Good
1923___158.26___Heavy
1924___160.98___Good
1925___153.96___Good
1926___152.96___Good
1927___152.90___Good
1928___158.98___Good
1929___162.94___Heavy
1930___164.98___Heavy
1931___158.96___Good
1932___164.66___Heavy
1933___161.76___Good
1934___161.82___Heavy
1935___162.64___Good
1936___158.72___Good
1937___153.88___Good
1938___159.82___Heavy
1939___none___none
1940___none___none
1941___156.26___Good
1942___157.96___Holding
1943___153.20___Holding
1944___155.00___Heavy
1945___154.82___Good
1946___153.32___Good
1947___153.42___Firm
1948___151.60___Good
1949___153.22___Good
1950___154.22___Heavy
1951___152.84___Soft
1952___159.84___Soft
1953___151.82___Good
1954___156.34___Soft
1955___155.68___Soft
1956___154.76___Heavy
1957___155.42___Good
1958___157.91___Soft
1959___155.30___Good
1960___163.96___Heavy
1961___158.44___Soft
1962___150.94___Good
1963___154.98___Soft
1964___155.50___Good
1965___155.52___Good
1966___159.80___Heavy
1967___158.20___Good
1968___155.20___Good
1969___149.00___Good
1970___149.70___Good
1971___148.30___Firm
1972___148.30___Firm
1973___155.80___Soft
1974___156.90___Heavy
1975___153.60___Soft
1976___159.40___Heavy
1977___150.60___Good
1978___156.50___Good/soft
1979___148.90___Good/soft
1980___148.00___Good/soft
1981___155.20___Good/soft
1982___157.00___Soft
1983___148.10___Firm
1984___159.10___Heavy
1985___149.50___Good/firm
1986___147.70___Good/firm
1987___146.30___Firm
1988___157.30___Good/firm
1989___150.80___Good/soft
1990___149.80___Good
1991___151.40___Good/soft
1992___159.00___Soft
1993___157.90___Soft
1994___151.10___Good/soft
1995___151.80___Good/soft
1996___149.90___Good
1997___144.60___Good/firm
1998___154.50___Soft
1999___158.50___Heavy
2000___145.80___Good
2001___156.10___Holding
2002___146.70___Good
2003___152.30___Holding
2004___145.00___Good
2005___147.40___Good/soft
2006___146.30___Good
2007___148.50___Good/soft
2008___148.80___Good/soft
2009___146.30___Good
2010___155.30___Very Soft
2011___144.49___Good
2012___157.68___Heavy

The going descriptions are often rubbish. The times are a better indicator.
Times above shown in seconds.
Notice in the 1920s there was a fashion for xxx.98 or xxx.96. And in the 1920s the going was only "good" or "heavy". Then "holding" became the "in" word.
1966 and 1967 times the same, but goings given as "heavy" and "good".
1987 to 1981 had some descriptions that didn't match times.
1992 and 1993 were both "soft". 2012 was faster but given as "heavy".

1982 soft is wrong.It had been raining for ages before the race.Eddery described the ground as the worst ever he rode on in France.I stayed in the camp site in a leaking tent across the road from main gates of track.

klairondavis

kfallon wrote: »

Didn't A P O'B say that exact thing last year, that in order for Joey to ride Camelot they'd have to 'cut off an arm'

Btw think it's 8-11 that the 3yo's will have to carry on Sunday.

Bit off topic but O'Brien has the same horse entered for both a Maiden Hurdle and a Novice Hurdle tomorrow at Clonmel. If it takes up either of those entries I wonder who will ride it? Is he gonna give one of the daughters a spin over hurdles?

All of the O'Brien children seem to do eventing and showjumping so it would be no surprise if it was one of the daughters. Heffernan used to have a national hunt license but I'm not sure if he still does. It has been a few years since his last ride over hurdles.

EDIT: Robbie Power rides.

UrbanSea

Diomed last years ground surely wa heavy it was awful

kfallon

Found the entries on France Galop :rolleyes:

Fields are still massive

Overthelast

kfallon wrote: »

Didn't A P O'B say that exact thing last year, that in order for Joey to ride Camelot they'd have to 'cut off an arm'

Haha didn't realise that. Great minds & all that :pac:

kfallon

Overthelast wrote: »

Haha didn't realise that. Great minds & all that :pac:

Here it is...

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8125267/obrien-off-camelot-in-arc

Come to think of it, I've never seen you and Aidan O'Brien together in the same place, hmmmm....... :P

tryfix

I'll take Novellist at 5/1, based on his top form in the King George and on his staying power which should come in handy in a race with the likes of Leading light running in it. Orfevre is a special horse, but he had his Arc for the taking last year and blew it, so his price now at 5/2 to do what would effectively be a back to back Arc wins stinks.

There are lots of potential 3yo winners of the race with promising form, but picking one is quite hard apart from the excellent Treve who's a very fair price at 9/2.

Might have a second bet on Kizuna who may have had more in the locker the last day than he showed, Ruler Of The World is a bit of a grinder and vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot. Intello is the only other horse with a bit of flair, but his form credentials are weak enough.

mailburner

frankie out for the season with a broken ankle

jarnet will now ride treve
id be happier now if i had him backed

orfevre awful short now at 5/2
didnt expect it to shorten that much in the space of
a few weeks

Oscars Well.

Dettori will NOT ride Treve on Sunday and is out for the rest of the season with a fractured ankle.

Overthelast

Sad for Frankie. But I reckon Treve's chances are not lessened one bit. Roll on Sunday.

UrbanSea

Don't mean to be harsh but glad Frankie isn't on. He tried his hardest to get her beaten in the Vermeille in a small field compared to the Arc. Hope Jarnet gets the ride, didn't put a foot wrong on her

sting60

Lads do not give a f..k who is what you need to be drawn 1-9 full stop.If you backed anti post well enough said.

UrbanSea

Perhaps a little quiz. Last horse to be beaten in the Arc at three before winning the following year?


A cookie for the winner

Harry Angstrom

Interesting Arc stats here:

http://www.bettingmarket.com/prixarc2012.html

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Perhaps a little quiz. Last horse to be beaten in the Arc at three before winning the following year?


A cookie for the winner

Rainbow Quest, now give me a cookie..:)

UrbanSea

I'm afraid the cookies are gone

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'm afraid the cookies are gone

:mad:

Johner

Great news for Treve backers, Frankie is beyond awful now.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'm afraid the cookies are gone

I'll forgive you if you can tell me who ran the last furlong of the Arc in 10.8 seconds.

Hint, not Frankel.:)

UrbanSea

tryfix wrote: »

I'll forgive you if you can tell me who ran the last furlong of the Arc in 10.8 seconds.

Hint, not Frankel.:)

Danedream or Peintre Celebre??

UrbanSea

Or Dancing Brave

klairondavis

Youmzain?

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Or Dancing Brave

The one and only, Frankel my arse.:pac:

He ran the last furlong in 10.8 sec's perhaps the fastest ever in the history of the race. The time he thundered past the leaders was reminiscent of a bullet zooming out of a gun. On that day he ran like a true equine machine and gained a permanent place in racing's all-time greats like Sea Bird, Ribot, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard and Nijinsky. The manner the colt won coming of the pace from behind against one of the the strongest fields ever was perhaps what no horse of this century has achieved.

http://www.jockeysite.com/stories/dancingbrave.htm

UrbanSea

Just watched Peintre Celebre's, look at the way he quickened when he got to the front


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOoVU-hjrnM

diomed

What is the most common initial of Arc winners?

UrbanSea

B.D


Big Dick

Overthelast

1

UrbanSea

It's ante post rules but Moonlight Cloud must be a lump job at 5/4 in the foret


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/international/prix-de-la-foret/winner

tryfix

SSSSSSSSs loads of them.

diomed

tryfix wrote: »

SSSSSSSSs loads of them.

Correct.

Sagace
Sagamix
Saint Crespin
Sakhee
Samos
San San
Sassafras
Saumarez
Sea The Stars
Sea-Bird
Sica Boy
Sinndar
Solemia
Soltikoff
Star Appeal
Suave Dancer
Subotica