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Tropical Storm CHANTAL

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  • 08-07-2013 10:16am
    #1
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭


    083715W5_NL_sm.gif
    5:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 8
    Location: 10.4°N 49.5°W
    Moving: W at 26 mph
    Min pressure: 1007 mb
    Max sustained: 40 mph


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    #2
    savj2
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭savj2


    Only moderate sheer over the west Carribean so this tropical cyclone coud intensify somewhat before it gets to Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.

    GFS shows on Friday and Saturday a dip in the Jet Stream over the eastern USA with an upper level low stretching into the South East over Georgia. If the tropical cyclone reaches USA by this time that could weaken the convection and make the cyclone extra-tropical.


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    #3
    Geomy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,296 ✭✭✭Geomy


    Could this drive a swell towards Ireland ?
    Surfing conditions. ..


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    #4
    savj2
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭savj2


    Who knows?? Currently we have a blocking high over Ireland and the Western Atlantic so the post tropical storm ( by the time it nears the US) is likely to move over the US on a slightly westwards track if the Bermuda High holds position and dissipate


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    #5
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Up to 65mph. Land interaction will be a big factor what what happens with Chantal over time. Moving along very quickly too which doesn't help it.

    2:00 PM AST Tue Jul 9
    Location: 14.8°N 62.7°W
    Moving: WNW at 29 mph
    Min pressure: 1006 mb
    Max sustained: 65 mph


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    #6
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Chantal is an absolute mess at the moment, quickly on her way to losing her tropical storm status.


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    #7
    savj2
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭savj2


    Yep it looks like it is weakening out. Too much dry air along with the system moving too fast for intensification.


    We can also see an upper level low over Cuba which will be dragging upper level westerly sheer over the tropical storm tomorrow and Friday. This storm could weaken to a tropical depression by tomorrow.


    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=w300&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0


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    #8
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Going....going...
    ...CHANTAL MOST LIKELY A TROPICAL WAVE... ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO VERIFY...


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    #9
    savj2
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭savj2


    Yep looks like it's gone. All winds are showing as easterly so no closed circulation.


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    #10
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    RIP Chantal, not one that will be long remembered! It was a bit early in the season for the African wave train storms anyway. Just a teaser of the rest of whats to come later.


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