The Winds of Winter (Book 6 Discussion) **SPOILERS for all books & future books**

Duckworth_Luas

padraig.od wrote: »

Aegon is either Perkin Warbeck (an imposter) or Charles Stuart (raised abroad, and groomed for kingship). I don't expect to see him survive TWOW.

Perkin Warbeck was fully aware that he himself was an imposter. Aegon does not and, like both Stuart pretenders, has been raised to believe he is the rightful King.

In my opinion a more likely historical source for Aegon is Lambert Simnel, an innocent dupe.

Paddy Cow

Kunkka wrote: »

+1

I do see Connington surviving a little longer then him though.

As long as the greyscale doesn't kill him.

Paddy Cow

Mr Freeze wrote: »

I think Varys is still very loyal to the Targaryens. So much so, he would create a fake one to have the throne instead of any one else.

I don't believe the realm is his primary concern.

Vary's is a funny one to work out. He says he cares about the realm, yet the last Targaryen to rule was a complete nut job who wanted to blast the whole of Kings Landing to smithereens. It's always been a 50/50 toss up whether the ruling Targaryen would be normal or mad.

GerB40

Duckworth_Luas wrote: »

Perkin Warbeck was fully aware that he himself was an imposter. Aegon does not and, like both Stuart pretenders, has been raised to believe he is the rightful King.

In my opinion a more likely historical source for Aegon is Lambert Simnel, an innocent dupe.

Dafuq ye talkin about??

TimeToShine

GerB40 wrote: »

Dafuq ye talkin about??

A load of people are claiming that GRRM has essentially ripped of some early modern history for his tale and are trying (successfully in some cases) to liken some of his characters to those documented back then.

GerB40

TimeToShine wrote: »

A load of people are claiming that GRRM has essentially ripped of some early modern history for his tale and are trying (successfully in some cases) to liken some of his characters to those documented back then.

Oh right. The red wedding was based on something that actually happened in Scotland. I think it was called the black supper. Reading ye're comments I thought I missed these Stuart characters on both reads..

Duckworth_Luas

GerB40 wrote: »

Dafuq ye talkin about??

Aegon is fake.


You had the War of the Five Kings and what remains of Renly's, Robb Stark's, Balon Greyjoy's and Stannis' forces are now in the North. What is to stop King's Landing sending a force there to wipe out the last remaining rebels?

Martin's answer is to introduce a new character Aegon and his invasion of the South. This invasion will tie up the Lannister's and their loyalists while events in the North are allowed to play out without outside intervention.

In the end I think Stannis will be at the head of some sort of coalition of Baratheons, wildlings, Rickon Stark loyalists and Asha Greyjoy Iron Islanders. He will then look south again to a weakened King's landing.

Eventually Aegon will be defeated and captured by the Lannisters, Tyrells etc. He will be revealed as a fraud. People like Jon Connington will be executed for treason but, as he is an innocent dupe, Aegon will be spared and sent to the wall, see historic example mentioned above.

Jon Snow is gone, not dead but his story line will move on from being in the Night's Watch. A new POV is needed at the Wall. Aegon will provide this and also an interesting sub-plot of a guy going from prince to pauper.

So you'll have Jon Snow on some sort of voyage of self discovery. Bran Stark on a voyage of discovering the real pre-history of Westeros. Stannis finally victorious in the War of the Five Kings, at King's Landing and sitting in his rightful place, the Iron Throne.

Then, from Essos a new threat arrives, a bona fide Targaryen princess with three dragons and a dwarf. While at the Wall the fake Targaryen is coming to terms with who he really is when he hears three horn blows!


tl;dr Aegon is fake and a plot device to clean up events in Westeros prior to White Walkers/dragons etc arriving.

Holy Hand Grenade

Hey guys, Idk if this has been discussed before, but do you think The Hound is going to play any important role in the last books (of course, if he is indeed the gravedigger at Quiet Island)? Or you think George Martin just gave all those hints to leave it open to whatever the reader believes happened to him (btw this doesn't sound like GRRM imo)?

GerB40

Holy Hand Grenade wrote: »

Hey guys, Idk if this has been discussed before, but do you think The Hound is going to play any important role in the last books (of course, if he is indeed the gravedigger at Quiet Island)? Or you think George Martin just gave all those hints to leave it open to whatever the reader believes happened to him (btw this doesn't sound like GRRM imo)?

I reckon when the the septon told Brienne "The Hound us dead, Sandor Clegane is at peace" (something along those lines) Martin was telling us that The Hound has repented for his sins, effectively killing the evil in him (the part that got him known as The Hound) and that part of his penance is servitude to the seven as the innocent, sin free, Sandor Clegane. If he has any part to play in future books I'd imagine it'll be as Sandor (version 2, the innocent) rather that The Hound (aggressive, violent, hard man).


Now that I think about it, he would make a great champion for the seven (a la Robert Strong) should they have need for one..

TimeToShine

GerB40 wrote: »

Now that I think about it, he would make a great champion for the seven (a la Robert Strong) should they have need for one..

Which would make sense in the context of Maggies prophecy if he wins.

December2012

TimeToShine wrote: »

Which would make sense in the context of Maggies prophecy if he wins.

Which prophecy is that?

Duckworth_Luas

December2012 wrote: »

Which prophecy is that?

Valonqar

December2012

Duckworth_Luas wrote: »

Valonqar

Hasn't thought of it that way - so the younger brother in this case is Sandor, who kills Gregor?

Burt Macklin

December2012 wrote: »

Hasn't thought of it that way - so the younger brother in this case is Sandor, who kills Gregor?

Ehh, I'm confused now, was the prophecy not that Cersei was to be killed by her Valonqar, i.e. younger brother? Don't know how it could affect the Cleganes.

Washington Irving

Burt Macklin wrote: »

Ehh, I'm confused now, was the prophecy not that Cersei was to be killed by her Valonqar, i.e. younger brother? She assumes this to be Tyrion, but it could also be Jaime.

That's what I've always thought too, but there are theories that she isn't necessarily killed by her younger brother. So I assume TimeToShine buys into that theory which would lend itself to Sandor Clegane representing the Faith winning the trial by combat vs Robert Strong and thus essentially 'killing' Cersei.

Burt Macklin

Washington Irving wrote: »

That's what I've always thought too, but there are theories that she isn't necessarily killed by her younger brother. So I assume TimeToShine buys into that theory which would lend itself to Sandor Clegane representing the Faith winning the trial by combat vs Robert Strong and thus essentially 'killing' Cersei.

But doesn't it says that (and I'm paraphrasing here) her life will end with the valonquar's hands around her throat? That sounds pretty specific to me, Sandor winning the trial doesn't quite fit the bill.
Also places doubt on the Jaime theory as he only has the one hand.

TimeToShine

Burt Macklin wrote: »

But doesn't it says that (and I'm paraphrasing here) her life will end with the valonquar's hands around her throat? That sounds pretty specific to me, Sandor winning the trial doesn't quite fit the bill.
Also places doubt on the Jaime theory as he only has the one hand.

As I really, really can't see Tyrion making it back to Westeros before Cersei is killed I think that the trial by combat might decide her fate. I'd probably rather Tyrion do it but it's very unlikely, and as you said Jaime's lack of a hand technically puts him out of the running.

Mr Freeze

^ He still has one hand, and Cersei has a skinny neck.

Duckworth_Luas

Tyrion managed to kill Shae with "hands" around her neck!

Mr Freeze

Duckworth_Luas wrote: »

Tyrion managed to kill Shae with "hands" around her neck!

I thought he kept twisting the gold chain around her neck until he choked her?

EDIT. oh I get it now. Bit slow this morning

Holy Hand Grenade

Mr Freeze wrote: »

^ He still has one hand, and Cersei has a skinny neck.

Plus one backup golden hand.

TheIrishGrover

Never thought of that "Hands" thing. Huh............ The only thing that's stopping me being absolutely sure that it's going to be Jamie who kills Cercie is that it just seems a bit too obvious for Martin's style.

Well, I suppose we'll find out by the end of this year when the book's out

chickenboy

Does anyone have any crackpot theories they'd like to share? There's one going around Reddit at the moment that the new high septon is actually Howland Reed, which is strangely compelling!

Kunkka

chickenboy wrote: »

Does anyone have any crackpot theories they'd like to share? There's one going around Reddit at the moment that the new high septon is actually Howland Reed, which is strangely compelling!

Link me!

Burt Macklin

Here's a collection of theories from westeros.org

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/79775-a-compendium-of-theories/

Some of these are quite plausible and clever eg, Frey Pie, Northern conspiracy, Vary-Ilyrio conspiracy, but a few are pretty unlikely.

There are some real crackpot ones on reddit too, like that Ramsay Bolton is Azor Ahai.

Mr Freeze

chickenboy wrote: »

Does anyone have any crackpot theories they'd like to share? There's one going around Reddit at the moment that the new high septon is actually Howland Reed, which is strangely compelling!

That's a good one?

Another Howland Reed is that Jojen is Howland too. Howland is safe at home in the marshes, but has warged into Jojen.

The Frey Pie is probably true.

The Northern conspiracy is harder to believe.

The Vary-Ilyrio conspiracy I completely subscribe too, those 2 are actively planning to change the rule of Westeros, thats no secret.

chickenboy

Kunkka wrote: »

Link me!

http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/1yljs8/spoilers_all_high_septon_tinfoil_theory/

chickenboy

Mr Freeze wrote: »

The Vary-Ilyrio conspiracy I completely subscribe too, those 2 are actively planning to change the rule of Westeros, thats no secret.

I'm still convinced that Varys is a Targaryen / Blackfyre, and is working to bring them back on the throne.

Mr Freeze

chickenboy wrote: »

I'm still convinced that Varys is a Targaryen / Blackfyre, and is working to bring them back on the throne.

I'd say Illyrio could be married to a Blackfyre anyways.

I never really suspected Varys of being either a Targaryen or Blackfyre. But you can't believe a word he says, but wasn't he hired by The Mad King, when they heard of his talents?

December2012

I love the Northern Conspiracy!

Duckworth_Luas

chickenboy wrote: »

Does anyone have any crackpot theories they'd like to share? There's one going around Reddit at the moment that the new high septon is actually Howland Reed, which is strangely compelling!

My memory is hazy about this High Septon but wouldn't Howland Reed, a crannogman, worship the Old Gods of the North? How would a layman of one faith have the knowledge to masquarade as a cleric of another?

Kunkka

Question to anyone frequenting forums before ADWD. Were there as many plot ideas before it's release & did many foresee what was going to happen prior to it's release? I'm just wondering if all the discussion of what GRRM is going to do is completely pissing in to the wind!

chickenboy

Duckworth_Luas wrote: »

My memory is hazy about this High Septon but wouldn't Howland Reed, a crannogman, worship the Old Gods of the North? How would a layman of one faith have the knowledge to masquarade as a cleric of another?

Again, I've a slightly hazy memory, but the new High Septon claimed to be a wandering septon, travelling around to small villages and such. He seems to have built up his reputation based on humility, piety and hard work rather than an academic knowledge of the faith, and was unknown to the upper echelons of the church before the sparrows barged in and demanded that he take the position.

Mr Freeze

Kunkka wrote: »

I'm just wondering if all the discussion of what GRRM is going to do is completely pissing in to the wind!

I'd like to know this too!

December2012

chickenboy wrote: »

Again, I've a slightly hazy memory, but the new High Septon claimed to be a wandering septon, travelling around to small villages and such. He seems to have built up his reputation based on humility, piety and hard work rather than an academic knowledge of the faith, and was unknown to the upper echelons of the church before the sparrows barged in and demanded that he take the position.

I had heard another theory that the new High Septon is Varys in disguise. Or working in concert with Varys.

hidinginthebush

Kunkka wrote: »

Question to anyone frequenting forums before ADWD. Were there as many plot ideas before it's release & did many foresee what was going to happen prior to it's release? I'm just wondering if all the discussion of what GRRM is going to do is completely pissing in to the wind!

Popular Theories before AFFC/ADWD

What are the most significant fan theories that have come true?

What are some popular theories that were disproven when ADWD came out?

Past Fan theory compilation

And many more here

I will add though that I gave up on reading the theories a while ago. What got me hooked on the series was that the central character was killed at the end, it was a complete and utter shock. And most every book since then has has some complete "WTF!" moment that blows you away. There are so many theories abounding now that I'm worried that (a) I won't be shocked when some new surprise drops, or even worse (b) Martin decides he has to come up with new zaney wild ploy twists as everything he had planned has been figured out.

I'm happy to let the story be told by GRRM himself, no doubt he still has some cards up his sleeve.

Mr Freeze

People suspected Aegon was alive from way back. I never dawned on me at all until young grif claimed to be Aegon. It was a complete shock.

I felt it was something that wasn't planned, and GRRM did it as an afterthought. But looking back, maybe not, revealing this fake or real Aegon could have been planned from the start.

Benjen as the Tree Eye Crow, never thought that, I always suspected he was Coldhands. But there was a seperate theory for it being Bloodraven.

They got a lot of theories right in fairness.

Kunkka

Maybe we are not pissing in the wind then!

valor rorghulis

Mr Freeze wrote: »

People suspected Aegon was alive from way back. I never dawned on me at all until young grif claimed to be Aegon. It was a complete shock.

I felt it was something that wasn't planned, and GRRM did it as an afterthought. But looking back, maybe not, revealing this fake or real Aegon could have been planned from the start.

Benjen as the Tree Eye Crow, never thought that, I always suspected he was Coldhands. But there was a seperate theory for it being Bloodraven.

They got a lot of theories right in fairness.

There's a fantastic one on reddit about Benjen Stark being Daario Naharis - the first reply was "LOOK WHAT YOU'RE DOING TO US MARTIN"

FunLover18

Just finished my chronological re-read (absolutely recommended), and just skimmed through this thread.

I don't think Jon's dead to be honest, I think he'll be back.

Re the Volanqar, does the prophecy actually say "her volanqar" or just "the volanqar" I agree that I think it's more like to be Jaime than Tyrion but I also think it could be Stannis ... and just come to me as I type, could it be Tommen?

The thing about Arya that really interests me is the constant referencing to Nymeria and her giant wolf pack. They get mentioned for too often for them not to be significant in some way.

I have no idea what to think about Aegon.

Holy Hand Grenade

FunLover18 wrote: »

Just finished my chronological re-read (absolutely recommended), and just skimmed through this thread.

I don't think Jon's dead to be honest, I think he'll be back.

Re the Volanqar, does the prophecy actually say "her volanqar" or just "the volanqar" I agree that I think it's more like to be Jaime than Tyrion but I also think it could be Stannis ... and just come to me as I type, could it be Tommen?

The thing about Arya that really interests me is the constant referencing to Nymeria and her giant wolf pack. They get mentioned for too often for them not to be significant in some way.

I have no idea what to think about Aegon.

I'm pretty sure Nymeria and her pack are gonna play some important role in the future. I don't think their greatest achievement will be having "saved" Catelyn.

hidinginthebush

Holy Hand Grenade wrote: »

I'm pretty sure Nymeria and her pack are gonna play some important role in the future. I don't think their greatest achievement will be having "saved" Catelyn.

She absolutely has to be reunited with Arya. Even GRRM wouldn't be so cruel as to not let them two meet up and become an unstoppable force of vengeance.

Mr Freeze

hidinginthebush wrote: »

Even GRRM wouldn't be so cruel....

Really?

Have you learnt nothing? :pac:

Paddy Cow

hidinginthebush wrote: »

She absolutely has to be reunited with Arya. Even GRRM wouldn't be so cruel as to not let them two meet up and become an unstoppable force of vengeance.

A lot of people think that if Jon is dead he will warge into Ghost but I think it is more likely that Arya will get killed and warg into Nymeria.

Paddy Cow

Paddy Cow wrote: »

A lot of people think that if Jon is dead he will warge into Ghost but I think it is more likely that Arya will get killed and warg into Nymeria.

dont think so would make all the faceless man stuff pointless

TheIrishGrover

hidinginthebush wrote: »

She absolutely has to be reunited with Arya. Even GRRM wouldn't be so cruel as to not let them two meet up and become an unstoppable force of vengeance.

You know nothing Jon Snow um... hidinginthebush.

TBH, I can't see them meeting. I do love the whole Nymeria pack thing though. Love how it's been done, (It's been a while since I finished the books but isn't her pack in the hundreds now?) how there are nice references by characters talking about this mysterious wolf pack.

Like most, I believe that jon will warg into Ghost (That was the whole point of the Johnny nine-skins (Or whatever his name was) chapter. He'll warg into Ghost. Because of their connection he won't be subsumed totally by Ghost but part of his personality will change/majority of his memory lost. When he wargs back into another human again he won't be the Jon we know (He may not even remember he is Jon. Just someone on a vague mission of vengeance.

This would be a VERY handy out for Martin. Frees Jon from his duties at the Wall, gives him a "new" character that already has (in the books anyway) a popular following and still has a long back story for Martin to use. He can send him north of the wall as there needs to be a POV character there or keep him with the wildlings just south of the wall. As with other theories mentioned though, this may be just too predictable for Martin.

Turtyturd

I really don't like the 'too predictable for Martin' line.

If something is the natural progression/conclusion of an arc then it should be followed through regardless of if it is predictable or not. Not everything has to come as a major shock...Jon's parentage being the obvious example. The majority of readers had pieced it together by the time they had finished the books, and I remember Martin saying that he might change it because of that. Personally I feel there is no need to do that, it's the standard heroes journey of the orphan (bastard) that people will root for.

FunLover18

TheIrishGrover wrote: »

You know nothing Jon Snow um... hidinginthebush.

TBH, I can't see them meeting. I do love the whole Nymeria pack thing though. Love how it's been done, (It's been a while since I finished the books but isn't her pack in the hundreds now?) how there are nice references by characters talking about this mysterious wolf pack.

Hasn't one of the characters guessed it's Nymeria? Was it Jaime suspected it was the direwolf that attacked Joff. I'd love them to play some part but I don't know what, they're too far south to aid Stannis in the North and my guess is that if there's anyone/thing they'll be involved with it will be the Starks or Winterfell but they're miles from both.

The dream would be Nymeria hunting down Ramsay, maybe Arya as Nymeria ... or Bran

Paddy Cow

Enrique Rapid Garter wrote: »

dont think so would make all the faceless man stuff pointless

Arya is a loose cannon who is using the faceless men to learn how to become a killer so she can exact her revenge. She could take some of them out and still get killed herself and warg into Nymeria. It's too predictable that she goes on a revenge spree and comes out of it unscathed and she's too full of hate to become a true faceless man.

Paddy Cow

TheIrishGrover wrote: »

You know nothing Jon Snow um... hidinginthebush.

TBH, I can't see them meeting. I do love the whole Nymeria pack thing though. Love how it's been done, (It's been a while since I finished the books but isn't her pack in the hundreds now?) how there are nice references by characters talking about this mysterious wolf pack.

Like most, I believe that jon will warg into Ghost (That was the whole point of the Johnny nine-skins (Or whatever his name was) chapter. He'll warg into Ghost. Because of their connection he won't be subsumed totally by Ghost but part of his personality will change/majority of his memory lost. When he wargs back into another human again he won't be the Jon we know (He may not even remember he is Jon. Just someone on a vague mission of vengeance.

This would be a VERY handy out for Martin. Frees Jon from his duties at the Wall, gives him a "new" character that already has (in the books anyway) a popular following and still has a long back story for Martin to use. He can send him north of the wall as there needs to be a POV character there or keep him with the wildlings just south of the wall. As with other theories mentioned though, this may be just too predictable for Martin.

Warging into a human is no joke and if anyone was likely to do it, it would be Bran. He has experience of it from warging into Hodor and despite Hodor not being the most strong minded person, Bran still had a hard job controlling him.

I don't think Jon will warg into Ghost and don't see any advantage to him warging into another person. I think Robb's letter naming Jon as his heir will come into play somehow.