Playoff Picture (AFC) *Now with added NFC for your pleasure*

davetherave

Complete with rough calculations.

Starting with the AFC

Broncos 13-1
Jags 13-1
Jets 12-2

These three have secured their divisions and will see action in the post season.

The Jags final two matches are against the CPU Bears and Vikes.
Denver will face the CPU chiefs and the Oakland raiders who will be fighting fiercely for a hotly contested wildcard spot.
New York have St Louis and a divisional game against the Miami Dolphins who will be coming off of a game against New England also fighting desperately for a wildcard slot. An win in Foxboro against the Pats could give the Dolphins, which isn't out of the question NE just eaked out a win 6-3 last time around, could give the Dolphins the confidence to step up and shock the Jets.


If the Bengals win their week 17 matchup against the Steelers, or if the Steelers lose one game then they will clinch the division otherwise it will come down to tiebreakers.


Wildcard:
Colts, Titans, Pats and Raiders are all on 8-6

Colts face the Titans (which has the potential to decide which AFC South team will be thrown in the wildcard tiebreaker) and the Texans.

The Titans have the toughest run in facing two teams with playoff ambitions of their own. The Colts as above and the Detroit Lions who have at the very least a wildcard spot secured, but if GB falter could well win the division.

The Pats face the Niners and the Dolphins.

Oakland must do battle with the Browns and the Broncos.


If the draw was done now, firstly because the Titans have a W against the Colts the Colts get knocked out of the tiebreaker on H2H. We now only have one team from each division.

Because the Titans have lost to both the Pats and the Raiders they get eliminated.
We now revert to the "Two Club" tiebreaker.
The Pats and Raiders haven't played each other so there is no H2H.
The Pats have an 8-3 Conference win%

The Raiders have a 5-5 Conference win% so the Pats win the matchup and get the 5th seed and will face off against the Bengals/Steelers.

The Raiders will face whoever ends up as 3rd Seed out of the Jets/Broncos/Jags.

For the Pats to progress as top wildcard, they need to win last two games.

For the Raiders to progress as top wildcard win last two games, New England must lose one game.

For Titans to progress, must beat Colts and Detroit. Need both NE and Raiders drop a game to get top wildcard, need one of them to drop a game to get second wildcard.

For the Colts to Progress, must beat Titans and Texans. Assuming both NE and OAK win their two games then Colts and NE would have better conference record than OAK. As Colts have beaten NE, Colts would get 1st wildcard spot. NE would then get 2nd as they have better Conf record than Raiders.


If the playoffs started tomorrow then.

#1 Jags
#2 Broncos
#3 Jets
#4 Bengals
#5 New England
#6 Oakland


Of course this could/will all change when next next weeks results come in so until then sports fans, insert witty catch phrase here!

helimachoptor

davetherave wrote: »

For Titans to progress, must beat Colts and Detroit. Need both NE and Raiders drop a game to get top wildcard, need one of them to drop a game to get second wildcard.

Nice review Dave, If and its a big if, I beat the Colts, I think Adrian will rest his starters.

However.. what I need more than anything is a loss for either the Pats or the Raiders.

Perrin needs to beat the Raiders, however he may rest his starters which is advantage Raiders.

I need Ali G to beat the Pats, however with nothing to play for that is a tough ask.


My prediction... I lose out in a heartbraking tie breaker with the Raiders and Pats


You know whos fault this is!
Danger_Dave... if only he'd gotten back from the country earlier!!

Need to make up some reason to ban him!

PADRAIC.M

How's the NFC shaping up?

adrian522

Not near XBOX but from memory...

North, Packers will win as long as no CPU slip ups
East Giants look to have things sorted there
West Seahawks will take this division
South, close run thing between the Buccs and the Saints.

Wildcards, I think the Lions and whoever doesn't win the South will be looking as the best shouts for wildcard places.

Rock Lesnar

helimachoptor wrote: »

Nice review Dave, If and its a big if, I beat the Colts,

Nice work Heli trying to Take the pressure off ya, it wont work i tell ya, your at this game longer then me, plus i'm dying a slow death today

davetherave

Giants have clinched their division, and at least a #2 seed.

Seahawks have clinched their division.Should they win their two remaining games and NY lose then things get very interesting. There is no head to head result, they would both end up with the same conference win-loss% and they would both end up with the win-loss% on common games. Both teams are 4-1 in their relevant matches against the Redskins,Cards,Panthers and Bears. After this we move on to Strength of Victory.

Giants: 78-199 = 0.398
Hawks: 71-170 = 0.418

There is enough wiggle room there to allow for some changing in week 16 and 17 results but this one could come down to however the Madden computer decides to break a tie

Greenbay/Detroit.

The Packers have the H2H victories over the Lions so the only way for Detroit to win the division is to hope that the Viking team coming off of a 13 game losing streak can beat the cheeseheads while they win both their remaining matches.
A win for GB over the Saints this week would see them seal the top wildcard spot at least, then their fate is in Minnesota's hands.

Saints/Buccs
If the Saints can get past the Lions then they face what should be a formality against a struggling Atlanta team and hope KCC can put up a fight against the Buccs.
All the Buccs need to do to win the division is beat Kansas City. Just win baby.


As it stands now.
#1 Giants
#2 Seahawks (Win H2H over GB)
#3 Packers
#4 Buccs
#5 Lions
#6 Saints


A super scientific prediction based on the math of how I reckon it will end up*


#1 Giants (Should beat the CPU Cowboys)
#2 Seahawks (Face the Rams and an easy win over the Bills. Will beat Greenbay in tiebreaker)
#3 Packers
#4 Buccs
#5 Lions (13-3 and has to make do with a wildcard spot.)
#6 Saints (Won't have better Win-Loss than Buccs. Stats point to a Lions victory in the week 16 matchup.)



*Science may be a stretch of the imagination and may contain nuts, fruitcakes and halfbaked ideas.

Raoul

Buccs have the Redskins and Kansas left, lucky that Berty and Santry aren't about anymore.

adrian522

Looks like I'll be rolling with my starters tonight to try and secure number 5 seed, and also ensure that any Packers slipup is punished.

Raoul, if you must injure someone, don't let it be Megatron.

Raoul

I just had Sproles injured on me . I will have to try and injure Megatron . We might be dueling it out later on in the playoffs.

davetherave

We don't need to wait for a progression to figure these things out.

AFC:
Jacksonville and Denver haven't faced each other so there is no H2H
Both have the same Conference record and after that we have to calculate their the common games.
Commons games for these two are Chiefs, Colts, Dolphins and Steelers

Jags are 5-0, Denver are 4-1. That loss to the Colts in week two has denied the Broncos the top seed.

#1 Jags
#2 Broncos

#3 Jets will host #6 Pats yay........
#6 Colts will travel to do battle with #4 Cincinnati


After this, the Jags as #1 will face either the Pats or the Winner of IND/CIN whichever is the lowest remaining seed.
Denver will play host to whoever is the other remaining team.

NFC:
#1 Giants
#2 Seahawks
#3 Greenbay
#4 Tampa**
#5 Detroit
#6 Saints**

**Bucs and Saints are tied 11-5, both 1-1 in the series, and have the same division record. Common games were broncos, chargers, chiefs, cowboys, eagles, falcons, giants, panthers, raiders and redskins.
Buccs went 9-3, Saints went 8-4

1st round will be NO @ GB and DET@TB

helimachoptor

Will be forwarding at 10pm sharp

Nelbert

Raoul wrote: »

I just had Sproles injured on me . I will have to try and injure Megatron . We might be dueling it out later on in the playoffs.

Is Sproles out for the Wildcard Round?????

Raoul

Nelbert wrote: »

Is Sproles out for the Wildcard Round?????

Yep, broke the collarbone two weeks ago so I presume he is gone altogether.

Nelbert

Raoul wrote: »

Yep, broke the collarbone two weeks ago so I presume he is gone altogether.

Only way I get to see Rodgers again is if I get to the Superbowl with Vince Young...... This will not be Bledsoe / Brady type controversy.

Raoul

Nelbert wrote: »

Only way I get to see Rodgers again is if I get to the Superbowl with Vince Young...... This will not be Bledsoe / Brady type controversy.

Rodgers is missing? .

So it might not be like our last classic match. Think my own will be to play conservative and make you go 80 yards every time if you want a TD.