Tropical Storm DORIAN

maquiladora

11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 38-KT ASCAT SURFACE WIND AT
1111Z... AND VARIOUS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
ABOUT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
THIS TRACK SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LOW WHILE DORIAN REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER...
DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C
SSTS...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF
WARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR
BEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS. FOR THAT REASON...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 36- AND 48-HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER BOTH WARMER WATER
AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD
STEADY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGHER
INITIAL INTENSITY...BUT THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND OF CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.3N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.8N 36.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.4N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.1N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.3N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Tabnabs

"July -- standby!"

as they rightly say.

savj2

A lot of cooler water ahead of that storm so probably won't strengthen too much. First Cape Verde Tropical Storm of the year. Storms originating from there will strengthen in August when the waters heat up more and the sheer drops even more.

maquiladora

A little stronger.

5:00 AM AST Thu Jul 25
Location: 15.6°N 34.5°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

maquiladora

A little weaker.

5:00 AM AST Fri Jul 26
Location: 17.1°N 41.5°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

maquiladora

And weakens further...now forecast to become a depression over the weekend.

:00 PM AST Fri Jul 26
Location: 17.8°N 45.8°W
Moving: W at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

savj2

Looks like it could develop again.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN... IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH

tomcosgrave

Dorian is now back as a Tropical Depression as the system heads back into the Atlantic and becoming subtropical.

hotwhiskey

Typhoon Utor! Wow..That image speaks a thousand words.