Wednesday 31 July

Shane732

Bit a tip for Jayed Jidan in the next. :pac: Keep it quiet though! :D

shy-tall-knight

Weld on atr saying don't forget about Hissabatt tomorrow saying he'll love the ground! If that scoots in after all them duck eggs...
Anyone know what the pricewise horse is yet? Looks like it could be thomas edison judging by the market.

akelly02

Slattsy wrote: »

Just seen a replay of the Sussex there.
Toronado didnt win it as well as people made out here. Hughes had to get stuck into him, just because he gave him a pat on the neck at the line doesnt mean it won it cosy, he didnt!

Manning did kick too early.

Hughes made up an awful lot of ground in the last furlong and a half. won half a length going away after easing off. Hughes masterclass if you ask me!

Gringo180

DA won't be beating Toronado again, I feel the Hannon horse has alot more scope about him. Delighted for Hannon as well after Bolgers smart comments about the name Toronado just before the Guineas.

Slattsy

Delighted for High Chaparral too

tryfix

Nuts102 wrote: »

Humiliated are you serious or just talking out your hole.

Before this race Toronado was the loser who couldn't beat DA. That cut the Hannons up the last day, as could be seen by their reaction afterwards. If DA were to lose again to Toronado who now seems to have his measure it would do damage to DA's reputation as a miler..

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

Before this race Toronado was the loser who couldn't beat DA. That cut the Hannons up the last day, as could be seen by their reaction afterwards. If DA were to lose again to Toronado who now seems to have his measure it would do damage to DA's reputation as a miler..

What's Toronado's index mate? I know they there thinking of running him in the Derby but were put off after he finished legless in the Guineas, but he seems to have got over that after his op. I reckon he would relish a step up in trip.

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Delighted for High Chaparral too

But you don't think he's a gr.1 horse and High Chap doesn't get milers

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

What's Toronado's index mate? I know they there thinking of running him in the Derby but were put off after he finished legless in the Guineas, but he seems to have got over that after his op. I reckon he would relish a step up in trip.

A bit mixed, he's got the pedigree to stay 1m 4f, but he races like a miler and is built like one. Can't see the Hannons sending him over further, they specialise in milers and they reckon he's the best they've had.

[SIZE=-1]TORONADO (IRE) b. C, 2010 DP = 3-3-11-4-1 (22) DI = 1.10 CD = 0.14 [/SIZE]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/toronado4

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

A bit mixed, he's got the pedigree to stay 1m 4f, but he races like a miler and is built like one. Can't see the Hannons sending him over further, they specialise in milers and they reckon he's the best they've had.

[SIZE=-1]TORONADO (IRE) b. C, 2010 DP = 3-3-11-4-1 (22) DI = 1.10 CD = 0.14 [/SIZE]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/toronado4

Cheers for that. They may be tempted to step him up when he fills out a bit more, may keep him to a mile this season and then step him up next season for a tilt at the big middle distance races.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

But you don't think he's a gr.1 horse and High Chap doesn't get milers

Even the great one's can be wrong.

UrbanSea

Gringo180 wrote: »

Cheers for that. They may be tempted to step him up when he fills out a bit more, may keep him to a mile this season and then step him up next season for a tilt at the big middle distance races.

Jnr said they'd keep him to a mile this year then step up next year

Huntley

I've little interest in this stuff but I watch the Group 1 milers when it is a decent bunch. There is clearly nothing between these two animals. Last time out the Hannon horse was simply out battled as klairondavis said, he looked the winner until 20 yards before the line. The faster pace today meant Manning had to get busy a furlong sooner when the pacemakers started to wain. That wasn't ideal but that is necessary with an animal such as Dawn Approach, no point getting swallowed up with the bunch if there is something who can change gear on a penny sitting on your tail.

If Hughes had kept his horse clear last time out it may have been a similar result as today, and likewise had he eyeballed Dawn Approach today it would have been no surprise had he come off the worst for it. (I thought he was going to put down today for a stride or two when he was pulled out.)

Two similarly matched quality animals anyway although it does seem that Dawn Approach was a more forward horse earlier in the season who could probably do with another furlong or two at this stage to show his best form.

Gatame

Gatame wrote: »

Might throw a few quid ew on enchanted forest in the first.. its lashing at the moment think he will love that

How this horse still hasnt won a maiden is beyond me. Not a bad day for me got 15/8 on union dues on bf this morning. Dawn approach let me down for a 4fold with union dues blackmail and lucky kitten

Edit: Only just got a chance to look at the distance betting at Galway today, it was a cert. First three made it up, I would have lumped it but we were so busy in the bookies and had no money in my PP account, devastated!

Gringo180

UrbanSea wrote: »

Jnr said they'd keep him to a mile this year then step up next year

He's entered in the Juddmonte, he may actually go for that as there isn't much else to go for unless he goes to Longchamp for the Prix Moulin then onto the QEII??

UrbanSea

That's the plan

sting60

paddy no 11 wrote: »

Isnt pique sous getting a fair bit of weight from their last run was only 4L back?

Presume the ground favours ted veale + you know he goes up a hill from cheltenham.

If any horse wants heavy its Ted Veale but keep an eye on Martins other horse at the bottom.I put up Hisaabaat to win the Champion hurdle here last January but never ran.Weld at the time seemed to think he was that good but has looked a rogue but why is he still there????

manafana

annoyed with toufan express about 5 years ago, he was due to run at galway was with mcguiness at the time too. He had heart issue never ran that year and they thought he would never be same again.

Now hes got two festival wins in 2 years.

Morgans

sting60 wrote: »

If any horse wants heavy its Ted Veale but keep an eye on Martins other horse at the bottom.I put up Hisaabaat to win the Champion hurdle here last January but wasn't remotely good enough.

Toronado is now a better horse than Dawn Approach now. Its a repeat of Raven's Pass versus Henry the Navigator. Hopefully those thinking that Dawn Approach was unlucky in some way yesterday will make future markets.

andyman

Morgans wrote: »

Toronado is now a better horse than Dawn Approach now. Its a repeat of Raven's Pass versus Henry the Navigator. Hopefully those thinking that Dawn Approach was unlucky in some way yesterday will make future markets.

Last time I checked Toronado's win yesterday was the first time he had beaten Dawn Approach in their 3 meetings.

One win does not a better horse make.

Not suggesting he won't be a better horse than Dawn Approach, but right now there's still nothing to seperate them.

Morgans

As I said, I hope there are plenty of your opinion about when they next run.

UrbanSea

Think Dawn Approach was earlier which is hardly surprising given.toronado is a High Chap. If you could get odds against or event Toronado next time it would be a serious bet

Morgans

I think anything bigger than 4/6 would be value, given standard conditions. Cant see any reason why DA should reverse form or even reduce the gap.

Slattsy

I didn't hear many shouting from the rafters to lump on Toronado on the run up to yesterday's race.

Thanks Captain Hindsight.

UrbanSea

There will be plenty who will want to back DA, really think you could see near evens or maybe im too hopeful. Would you back him against Intello in the Marois

Morgans

I didn't back the horse or many on the flat.

Just commenting on those who believe that it was some form of a fluke that DA was beaten. It is using evidence to guess what would what happens in the future.

There is nothing about hindsight about it.

Good contribution though all the same.

Morgans

UrbanSea wrote: »

There will be plenty who will want to back DA, really think you could see near evens or maybe im too hopeful. Would you back him against Intello in the Moulin

Intello as a miler is one I cant get my head around, then again, the Hannon's were very keen to go the Derby route with Toronado before the Guineas flop. I would think that Toronado is a pure miler with a sharp turn of speed and should cope with Intello over a mile. Again conditions on the day, and it being in France....I'd be slow to wade in.

I think most would see DA as having little reason to reverse form over a mile. I think the form of the Sussex is strong.

Slattsy

I didn't see one person mention the word fluke yesterday.

But thanks for stopping by. Great input.

UrbanSea

Me neither, my bet on Habesh was the first since Hell's Bay won near the end of May, but even before the race the prices looked wrong, 5/6 versus 11/4 for a head beating. The 5/4 v 13/8 during the week was much better.

Think you're right in comparing them to Henry and Raven's Pass, think Ravens was 7/1 when i backed him and he was second at Royal Ascot then Henry was odds against the time he was beaten, big change in prices

Morgans

Slattsy wrote: »

I didn't see one person mention the word fluke yesterday.

But thanks for stopping by. Great input.

Keep up the funnies Slattsy. That you dont understand the word hindsight, you'll lose when you move outside your comfort zone. If fluke wasnt mentioned it was implied more than one post on this thread. Read again.

UrbanSea

Morgans wrote: »

Intello as a miler is one I cant get my head around, then again, the Hannon's were very keen to go the Derby route with Toronado before the Guineas flop. I would think that Toronado is a pure miler with a sharp turn of speed and should cope with Intello over a mile. Again conditions on the day, and it being in France....I'd be slow to wade in.

I think most would see DA as having little reason to reverse form over a mile. I think the form of the Sussex is strong.

i thought the same of Intello, i would love to see him kept to the top 10 furlong races and maybe an Arc try

Slattsy

Morgans wrote: »

Keep up the funnies Slattsy, but you'll lose when you move outside your comfort zone. If fluke wasnt mentioned it was implied more than one post on this thread. Read again.

Funnies aside, fluke wasnt implied. Anywhere.

Some said Manning kicked too early. I thought he did myself.

Did the softer ground suit Toronado more than DA? Yes 100%

I didnt back anything in the race yesterday, and i wont back either if they meet again, but i wouldnt as confident as some that its inevitable Toronado will win.

Morgans

Slattsy wrote: »

Funnies aside, fluke wasnt implied. Anywhere.

Some said Manning kicked too early. I thought he did myself.

Did the softer ground suit Toronado more than DA? Yes 100%

I didnt back anything in the race yesterday, and i wont back either if they meet again, but i wouldnt as confident as some that its inevitable Toronado will win.

I dont have the time or inclination to teach you text comprehension. Ive read posts saying the best horse was second, that tactics won the race, that it was Mannings fault. Try reading the thread again.

The only way DA would beat Toronado is if he is ridden to draw the sting out of Toronado's superior turn of foot. If Manning didnt go then, he would have lost by more.

Slattsy

Morgans wrote: »

I dont have the time or inclination to teach you text comprehension. Ive read posts saying the best horse was second, that tactics won the race, that it was Mannings fault. Try reading the thread again.

The only way DA would beat Toronado is if he is ridden to draw the sting out of Toronado's superior turn of foot. If Manning didnt go then, he would have lost by more.

Oh please try, i beg you :rolleyes:

Morgans

Slattsy wrote: »

Oh please try, i beg you :rolleyes:

Oh you.

Morgans

UrbanSea wrote: »

i thought the same of Intello, i would love to see him kept to the top 10 furlong races and maybe an Arc try

I think he will end up in the Arc, but its a strange prep for it.

mailburner

UrbanSea wrote: »

my bet on Habesh was the first since Hell's Bay won near the end of May

bloody hell
I wish I had half your discipline

akelly02

Slattsy wrote: »

Funnies aside, fluke wasnt implied. Anywhere.

Some said Manning kicked too early. I thought he did myself.

Did the softer ground suit Toronado more than DA? Yes 100%

I didnt back anything in the race yesterday, and i wont back either if they meet again, but i wouldnt as confident as some that its inevitable Toronado will win.

imo in no way was Toronado more suited by the softer ground. Completely the opposite. He wants it like a road, to even further utilise his sharp turn off foot. Dawn Approach is a pure grinder, who is more suited to a bit of cut imo.

andyman

Morgans wrote: »

As I said, I hope there are plenty of your opinion about when they next run.

And as I said, the gaps between them in their last two meetings was a short head in Dawn Approach's favour and half a length in Toronado's favour. In what way can anyone say that one horse is better than the other at the moment?

We should enjoy their battle for what it really is, an outstanding duel between two outstanding three-year-old milers. Really annoys me that people try to points-score by suggesting "HUUURRR HE WON I'M RIGHTZ" having kept quiet before the race.

Nobody can say Toronado is the better horse after the last two races, likewise nobody can say Dawn Approach is the better horse after the last two races. You can harp on with your confident opinion if you like, but I never said DA was the better horse, in fact what I did say was that there's nothing to seperate them and I didn't have a bet on yesterday. If anything, Toronado proved yesterday that form can be reversed. Who are you to tell me that DA won't do the same next time they meet after Toronado beat him in one race? You can't, not with the gaps between them in their last two meetings.

tryfix

andyman wrote: »

And as I said, the gaps between them in their last two meetings was a short head in Dawn Approach's favour and half a length in Toronado's favour. In what way can anyone say that one horse is better than the other at the moment?

We should enjoy their battle for what it really is, an outstanding duel between two outstanding three-year-old milers. Really annoys me that people try to points-score by suggesting "HUUURRR HE WON I'M RIGHTZ" having kept quiet before the race.

Nobody can say Toronado is the better horse after the last two races, likewise nobody can say Dawn Approach is the better horse after the last two races. You can harp on with your confident opinion if you like, but I never said DA was the better horse, in fact what I did say was that there's nothing to seperate them and I didn't have a bet on yesterday. If anything, Toronado proved yesterday that form can be reversed. Who are you to tell me that DA won't do the same next time they meet after Toronado beat him in one race? You can't, not with the gaps between them in their last two meetings.

We all have opinions, but Toronado beat DA by 1/2l or 1lb yesterday and beat DOW 121 by 3l or 6lb yesterday giving him a likely 127 rating which is better than anything DA has ever achieved, so far. Until DA proves otherwise Toronado is superior.

faoile@n

Are people really suggesting that Toronado is now a superior horse after yesterdays run :eek:

Have a read off Simon Rowlands sectional analysis

The headline sectionals from the Sussex Stakes point to one thing above all: the race was run at a notably strong pace, and the principals came back on the slow side in the context of the overall time as a result. The race should have suited a horse delivered with a late run. Toronado was delivered with a late run; Dawn Approach was not.

By way of comparison, the hand-timed leader/winner last two-furlong sectional of the Gordon Stakes (over 12 furlongs earlier on the card) was 24.2s, while the Vintage Stakes (at seven furlongs, for 2-y-os shortly after) resulted in 23.3s: the Sussex Stakes was 24.55s. The estimated par finishing speed % for a mile at Goodwood is around 102%. Every runner in the Sussex Stakes was below that, as the strong early gallop took its toll late on.

When there is as little between two horses as there appears to be between Toronado and Dawn Approach, victory and defeat can come down to small differences in ground, pace, jockeyship, and much more. It has been said many times this week that "no-one rides Goodwood better than Richard Hughes". His ride on Toronado - refusing to panic as Dawn Approach forged into the lead two furlongs out and thus saving enough for that vital last 100 yards - adds further substance to that claim.

It should not be assumed that Toronado will confirm placings with Dawn Approach if/when they meet again, any more than it should have been assumed that would be the case, the other way round, after Royal Ascot. It is again likely to be close, especially if both horses run nearer to par.

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/events/glorious-goodwood-betting/sectional-debrief-sussex-stakes-goodwood-310713-43.html

On sectional analysis Dawn Approach was marked up 2 pounds. The race did not go to plan for his yesterday but I'm in no way suggesting that he will definitely beat Toronado either.

Two very good colts and hopefully they meet again

Morgans

andyman wrote: »

And as I said, the gaps between them in their last two meetings was a short head in Dawn Approach's favour and half a length in Toronado's favour. In what way can anyone say that one horse is better than the other at the moment?

We should enjoy their battle for what it really is, an outstanding duel between two outstanding three-year-old milers. Really annoys me that people try to points-score by suggesting "HUUURRR HE WON I'M RIGHTZ" having kept quiet before the race.

Nobody can say Toronado is the better horse after the last two races, likewise nobody can say Dawn Approach is the better horse after the last two races. You can harp on with your confident opinion if you like, but I never said DA was the better horse, in fact what I did say was that there's nothing to seperate them and I didn't have a bet on yesterday. If anything, Toronado proved yesterday that form can be reversed. Who are you to tell me that DA won't do the same next time they meet after Toronado beat him in one race? You can't, not with the gaps between them in their last two meetings.

And all I said is that that attitude will make Toronado a better price next time out.

First thing, I didnt back Toronado yesterday, didnt suggest anyone should have done. I have never backed the horse.

What I am reacting is to those who somehow think that Toronado didnt deserve to win yesterday or was not value for the win. He won by a cosy 1/2l. I would see him value for a little more. Looks a classier animal than Dawn Approach, with a higher speed. Now, he probably came out of Ascot slightly the better horse.

BUT I do not see Dawn Approach improving further this season, I see Toronado as making the better four year old and will increase the gap between the two again if they meet. DA form is plateauing over a mile, Toronado's IMO is progressing.

And again, I am hopeful that the excuses made by supporters here will be reflected in the price the next time they meet. When I WILL be backing Toronado if the price is right.

Morgans

Im glad that the idea is out there that Dawn Approach would prefer a slower pace. I can see no surer way of him getting beating if they were to meet again. Toronado had the race won the moment he quickened by Declaration of War, it was only Hughes making sure that he didnt attack too soon.

As I said, these excuses are all very welcome.

Morgans

faoile@n wrote: »

On sectional analysis Dawn Approach was marked up 2 pounds. The race did not go to plan for his yesterday

How did the race not going to plan? What would you suggest as the alternative?

UrbanSea

It didn't go to plan because another horse finished in front of him :pac:

Gringo180

No doubting Toronado is the better horse, he was cantering all over DA and DOW when they were hard at it and when Hughsie pulled him out wide there was only one winner. Had the ground been good he would of went by DA alot quicker than he did. Toronado is a machine and wont be beating over a mile this year.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

It didn't go to plan because another horse finished in front of him :pac:

It's just not fair what with it being a true run race and all. Are we to have crawls to prove who's the fastest?

That theoretical marking up of 2lbs brings DA up to 126 his highest yet mark, which confirms that he was indeed most likely ridden to the best advantage of the horse and that Toronado beat him at his peak.

If DA never improves on his rating then it won't matter if Toronado never finishes in front of another horse again, his superiority over DA will have been decided by yesterday's result.

Morgans

Think his highest ever mark comes form the first time he has taken on older horses. Beating the QA winner is impressive stuff.

The funny thing about the complaints about the stiff pace, is that the slow pace of the Derby (different distance of course) caused him to go rank.

10/11 the pair at Stan James for the QE11, I have my doubts that they will clash again.

hawkeyethenoo

Gringo180 wrote: »

No doubting Toronado is the better horse, he was cantering all over DA and DOW when they were hard at it and when Hughsie pulled him out wide there was only one winner. Had the ground been good he would of went by DA alot quicker than he did. Toronado is a machine and wont be beating over a mile this year.

this is a load of bollox to be fair. no doubting toronado is the better horse? yeah he was the better horse on the day but he wasnt the time before that and in the guineas dawn approach slammed him fair and square and i was on toronado that day! there isnt much between the two horses and they could each beat each other on any given day. the way people are dismissing dawn approach is pretty funny.

klairondavis

One thing about a possible clash at Ascot would be that the straight mile will play more to Dawn Approach's strengths than Goodwood.