Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

Thrashssacre

JOB to get the first try @ 21/1

Leinster to win by 21-30 @ 9/1

sydthebeat

Tyrone Green

1st @17/2

Anytime @evens

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

Tyrone Green

1st @17/2

Anytime @evens

Taking the anytime winnings and put it on under 72.5 @ 5/6

thomond2006

Pending lineups, Zebre +24 vs Leinster seems like good value. Leinster will surely send a young side (though many of those are playing anyway due to injuries/callups) and Zebre's recent games have been close.

sydthebeat

acca:

rebels -7.5
crusaders -18.5
blues -9.5
reds win
@25/1

ireland -1 @ 10/11
walex -25 @ evens

sydthebeat

Highlanders win 11/8
Dixon 1st @12/1
Dixon anytime @ 6/4

ulster +5
Ulster ht/ft @ 11/4
Cooney or Coetzee to score a try @11/10

Zebre Glasgow draw @ 16/1

Tyrone Green
1st @17/2
Anytime @evens
under 72.5 @ 5/6

up and down weekend, but the narrower odds are always the bigger stake.. so some small profit from the weekend gone due to a half time 3/1 bet on highlanders coming back to win.

sydthebeat

champiosn cup odds are out

leinster and exeter are 3/1
both teams not firing full cylinders at the moment, and only one of them will be progressing to the semis.
no value in either for me right now.

racing and toulouse @ 9/2
i expect both these teams to make it to the semis. A racing v bristol QF would be a fantastic watch, but i think racing would have the bigger game experience to get through that one. Toulouse are good but id never bet against muster in thomond against a travelling french team. that will be a very tight game, and injuries coming into it will be key.

Clermont @ 8/1
will certainly beat a woeful wasps, and would fancy themselves at home against munster in a QF, but i fancy Toulouse to get out of those 4.

La Rochelle 12/1
very attractive at that price as their path to the semis looks incredibly easy. after that its totally dependent on the draw.

Munster 20/1
those odds are mainly down to the difficulty of the draw than their standing in the competition i think. Its an incredibly hard run of games between the pro14 final and wherever they reach in the HC.

my last 4 are racing, toulouse, la rochelle and Leinster.

if it gets to the round of semis with those teams id imagine racing and toulouse would narrow quite a bit, leinster a small bit, but la rochelle will stay quite wide at about 7/1

racing for me right now is the only decent value at 9/2

thomond2006

For the favourites 3/1 and 9/2 doesn't feel enough for four games, particularly with them being squeezed together.

I agree that La Rochelle at 12/1 is good value.

Leinstertomas

Leinstertomas wrote: »

Munster
Highlanders +8
Crusaders -6
@ 7/5

For a second weekend in a row my acca has made up for losing all my small stake bets :pac::o

Ireland win and France +1 @5/2

fryup

anytime tryscorer

jonny gray @ 14/1 finn russell @8/1

good value? which one is more likely?

sydthebeat

fryup wrote: »

anytime tryscorer

jonny gray @ 14/1 finn russell @8/1

good value? which one is more likely?

not being smart, but the "more likely" is the one with the shorter odds

thomond2006

6 tries in 53 caps (52 starts and 1 bench) for Finn Russell feels like very little given his maverick style of play.

sydthebeat

Some weekend additions to my acca above.

Munster - 12 @10/11
Zebre +24 @10/11
Double @ 2.6/1

Dragons +8 @evens
Edinburgh +8 @evens

Wales - 25 @evens
Ireland - 1 @10/11

Soroka 1st @16/1
Soroka anytime @ 13/5
Penny 1st @ 10/1

fryup

so what's the best value/safest bet for the 6 nations this weekend?

Pudsy33

I'm taking Italy +25

sydthebeat

fryup wrote: »

so what's the best value/safest bet for the 6 nations this weekend?

at what minimum odds? evens?

fryup

evens? i wanna make a decent mark up....5/1 minimum

wales should score a shed load of tries tomorrow...how about anytime tryscorer ?

thomond2006

There's no safe bet at 5/1.

None of the anytime tryscorers for Wales are going to be of value.

fryup

Tomas Francis 8/1 Jake Ball 8/1 Alun Wynn Jones 7/1

surely one of them will hit the mark esp against italy

sydthebeat

fryup wrote: »

evens? i wanna make a decent mark up....5/1 minimum

wales should score a shed load of tries tomorrow...how about anytime tryscorer ?

A 5/1 safe bet???

If you find one let me know

sydthebeat

fryup wrote: »

Tomas Francis 8/1 Jake Ball 8/1 Alun Wynn Jones 7/1

surely one of them will hit the mark esp against italy

Well Jake ball will do well to score from the bench.

You pick one and let us know how you get on

thomond2006

fryup wrote: »

Tomas Francis 8/1 Jake Ball 8/1 Alun Wynn Jones 7/1

surely one of them will hit the mark esp against italy

Francis: 1 try in 55 appearances
Ball: 0 tries in 49 appearances
AWJ: 9 tries in 146 appearances

They are those odds for a reason.

Leinstertomas

Munster win race to 20 points @ 5/6

Won by HT. Was pretty confident of it coming in after second try so placed profit on race to 30 which was evens

thomond2006

Leinstertomas wrote: »

Munster win race to 20 points @ 5/6

Won by HT. Was pretty confident of it coming in after second try so placed profit on race to 30 which was evens

I'm guessing you got 5/6 because of the weather? Good shout.

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

Some weekend additions to my acca above.

Munster - 12 @10/11
Zebre +24 @10/11
Double @ 2.6/1

Dragons +8 @evens
Edinburgh +8 @evens

Wales - 25 @evens
Ireland - 1 @10/11

Soroka 1st @16/1
Soroka anytime @ 13/5
Penny 1st @ 10/1

Munster and zebre singles and double came in. Happy days.

Added :
Bellini Italian top try scorer @12s
Red card in Ireland v Scotland @4/1

Leinstertomas

France @ 21/20
France first try and win @ 9/4

Leinstertomas

I expect Ulster to make use of bigger and better pitch and run out comfortable winners

Ulster HT/FT
-5
Lyttle antime
@ 4/1

Ulster -6 @ evens

Ulster -11 and over 21 points @ 2/1


Ulster by 21-30 @ 7/1

fryup

sydthebeat wrote: »

Well Jake ball will do well to score from the bench.

You pick one and let us know how you get on

luckily i didn't but Sheedy iirc was good value @ 5/1

thomond2006 wrote: »

Francis: 1 try in 55 appearances
Ball: 0 tries in 49 appearances
AWJ: 9 tries in 146 appearances

They are those odds for a reason.

where do get those stats??

thomond2006

fryup wrote: »

where do get those stats??

The WRU squad page.

sydthebeat

fryup wrote: »

luckily i didn't but Sheedy iirc was good value @ 5/1

Any substitute with those odds are absolutely not good value, regardless of what actually happened during the game.