Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

thomond2006 · 14-10-2014 5:36pm

Sexton will probably start but that's Still a good price for Saints.

The Pheasant2 · 15-10-2014 10:07am

5 units on a treble of:

NZ -8
Wasps +13
Ulster +3

gives about 7.00

sydthebeat · 15-10-2014 10:31am

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

5 units on a treble of:

NZ -8
Wasps +13
Ulster +3

gives about 7.00

ive added in saints +3 to return about 13.00

The Pheasant2 · 15-10-2014 10:35am

sydthebeat wrote: »

ive added in saints +3 to return about 13.00

Here's hoping she rolls in!

matthew8 · 15-10-2014 10:20pm

Gloucester -20.5 2.0 1 unit. Firsts out for Gloucester, seconds for Brive. Weather forecast is decent, Gloucester well able to run up the score when on top.

skippymac6 · 16-10-2014 10:45am

matthew8 wrote: »

Gloucester -20.5 2.0 1 unit. Firsts out for Gloucester, seconds for Brive. Weather forecast is decent, Gloucester well able to run up the score when on top.

Yep I'm also on this. Was thinking -9.5 first half hcap too.

thomond2006 · 16-10-2014 6:55pm

Old Balance: 54.37 units

- 2.5 units (10/11) Gloucester -19

- 5 units (4/9) Munster to win
- .5 units (21/10) Munster to get try BP
- .25 units (17/10) Simon Zebo try in 80 minutes
- .125 units (8/1) Peter O'Mahony try in 80 minutes
- .125 units (22/1) Paul O'Connell try in 80 minutes

New Balance: 45.87 units

matthew8 · 16-10-2014 7:44pm

The weather is good in Gloucester, should be covering and hopefully in style.

skippymac6 · 16-10-2014 9:27pm

Yep first half poor but they've well and turkey broken Brive at this stage

matthew8 · 16-10-2014 9:35pm

What an absolute cruise.

matthew8 · 17-10-2014 3:46pm

Connacht -15 1.91 1 unit. If they're any good at all they'll smash the seconds of La Rochelle, probably the weakest Top 14 squad.

wowy · 17-10-2014 3:53pm

matthew8 wrote: »

Connacht -15 1.91 1 unit. If they're any good at all they'll smash the seconds of La Rochelle, probably the weakest Top 14 squad.

Not concerned about the weather warning for the west & south this weekend?

matthew8 · 17-10-2014 3:54pm

wowy wrote: »

Not concerned about the weather warning for the west & south this weekend?

It's a concern but 15 isn't a massive handicap to cover, Connacht are used to imperfect conditions anyway.

matthew8 · 17-10-2014 9:04pm

Dragons +14 1.91 1 unit. Cardiff -7 1.91 1 unit.

The Pheasant2 · 18-10-2014 11:06am

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

5 units on a treble of:

NZ -8
Wasps +13
Ulster +3

gives about 7.00

Well that didn't last long. :mad:

skippymac6 · 18-10-2014 1:58pm

Taking Munster +11.5 here in play. Think they'll regroup at ht and put it up to Sale second half

skippymac6 · 18-10-2014 2:54pm

What a man Keatley!!!! Saved a few accumulators I'd say!

matthew8 · 18-10-2014 2:56pm

PHEW! Had also put small bets on a big Munster hcap before and the in play win. They were 9/1 when Sale had that scrum on the stroke of half time. Didn't back that price though.

matthew8 · 18-10-2014 10:33pm

matthew8 wrote: »

56.38 with 49 staked.

58.72 with 56 staked. 15.57% yield so far this year. Western Province have a home game for a 2.5 point profit next week, bad start for Northampton's 5 units but they're still shorter than I got them, Bath horrific but hopefully they turn the tables on Toulouse next week and get 5, speculative bet anyway, only tempted by the 5/1.

thomond2006 · 18-10-2014 11:22pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 54.37 units

- 2.5 units (10/11) Gloucester -19

- 5 units (4/9) Munster to win
- .5 units (21/10) Munster to get try BP
- .25 units (17/10) Simon Zebo try in 80 minutes - refunded as free bet
- .125 units (8/1) Peter O'Mahony try in 80 minutes - refunded as free bet
- .125 units (22/1) Paul O'Connell try in 80 minutes - refunded as free bet

New Balance: 45.87 units

New Balance: 57.86 units with .5 units freebet

Judgement Day · 19-10-2014 11:33am

I can't see past a Wasps win this evening 10/3 with PP. I'm on it, so that should ensure a runaway Leinster win.

Super Sidious · 19-10-2014 4:06pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

I can't see past a Wasps win this evening 10/3 with PP. I'm on it, so that should ensure a runaway Leinster win.

10/3? Thats pretty much bottom price in the entire industry, open a betfair exchange account and you could have got 9/2 or shop around. Dont get ripped off by PP.

Judgement Day · 19-10-2014 7:14pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

I can't see past a Wasps win this evening 10/3 with PP. I'm on it, so that should ensure a runaway Leinster win.

See what I did.

Podge_irl · 21-10-2014 10:52am

Deleted User wrote: »

GTO pricing is what's used across the markets (example - look how close all the prices align here - http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/wolverhampton/15:20/winner . Markets mean all available exchanges / book keepers etc. Any prices that are out of line widely will present arbitrage (risk free wins) opportunities and so they can't react "to where the money goes". They must reflect the win probabilities (&margin) instead.

former legend wrote: »

I understand that; I'm just not sure why you think that I thought this was how bookies operate? (anyway, I don't)

Yeah, again, get all that. Arbitrage would be known as 'a middle' by those of us with less fancy educations. Of course one bookie can't be wildly out of step with every else, he'll be cleaned out.

I suppose what I'm really asking is; someone has to set an initial price for this game. You can't look at the next bookie and see what his odds are if no-one has published them yet, so what happens?

EDIT: don't worry about it, this is more suited to the gambling thread.

Eliminating arbitrage opportunities doesn't preclude setting odds based on expectation of where the money will go though. It just means you can't dynamically react to it.

There is also no reason the markets won't come to an equilibrium price that doesn't reflect the "true" value.

(disclaimer - I know nothing about betting markets themselves, just a bit about markets in general).

21-10-2014 11:14am

They set the initial lines on win probability. It's the GTO line.
All books are two sided, you can't extract extra value without offering value. (If you think price for team A is too skimpy, then price for team B must be generous).

GTO pricing eliminates sentimentality in it's entirety, given that where "the money goes" is independent from the calculation of win probabilities.

As an example - massive horse racing meets. If all the favourites win, the bookies lose massively. Surely if there was a factor of sentimentality in the prices offered that this would not be the case? http://www.racingpost.com/news/sport/punters-hit-the-jackpot-as-favourites-win/1592258/

matthew8 · 21-10-2014 2:17pm

Leinster to win 1.85 1 unit, Leicester to win 1.91 (!) 1 unit. Those Leicester odds are on sportingbet for those interested, and that has to be the bet of the week, barring some more bizarre challenge cup odds. Also fancy Ulster to get the job done but gonna wait on more odds.

matthew8 · 21-10-2014 4:50pm

Ulster to win 1.83 1 unit.

thomond2006 · 22-10-2014 3:06pm

Bordeaux have put out a strong side including Avei, Bernard and Talebula for their trip to London Welsh tomorrow. They are -8 on PP. It's a must win after they lost to Edinburgh with a weaker team last week.

Judgement Day · 22-10-2014 3:34pm

What's happened to Piri Weepu - he's not even on the London Welsh bench? No need for the Haka.

matthew8 · 22-10-2014 3:53pm

Weepu's either injured or rested. The tough one for this match is I'm not sure if either team will be trying. Very reluctant to back a french team -8 away from home if not sure they'll be trying but if they do try you'd have to fancy them beating that handicap. Actually it's out to 10 now so very tough to back.

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

Comments