Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

wowy

It's a pity it's not possible to back both teams to lose....

thomond2006

matthew8 wrote: »

Weepu's either injured or rested. The tough one for this match is I'm not sure if either team will be trying. Very reluctant to back a french team -8 away from home if not sure they'll be trying but if they do try you'd have to fancy them beating that handicap. Actually it's out to 10 now so very tough to back.

Out to +12 now! Not worth it at that price IMO.

matthew8

Handicap out to 15 for Bordeaux. It makes you wonder why they offer odds on a tournament if they're off by 7 full points. Barely even fancied the -8 myself though. Munster to win 1 unit 1.74. 1 unit Clermont -17 1.91. Paddy Power 3 points out of line with the others in this one. Wouldn't be backing -20, Sale can score, but happy enough to back -17 against that brutal defense. Also interested by Racing -15 but no need to rush for the odds on offer.

Edinburgh -15 1.91 1 unit.

London Irish to win 1.61 1 unit. They have named a really nice team and to be honest should be winning by more than one score.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

Handicap out to 15 for Bordeaux. It makes you wonder why they offer odds on a tournament if they're off by 7 full points. Barely even fancied the -8 myself though. Munster to win 1 unit 1.74. 1 unit Clermont -17 1.91. Paddy Power 3 points out of line with the others in this one. Wouldn't be backing -20, Sale can score, but happy enough to back -17 against that brutal defense. Also interested by Racing -15 but no need to rush for the odds on offer.

Edinburgh -15 1.91 1 unit.

London Irish to win 1.61 1 unit. They have named a really nice team and to be honest should be winning by more than one score.

Poor auld London Welsh! And poor auld bookies must be counting their losses after that line move!!

matthew8

Bookies getting slaughtered on the challenge cup. Lots of big gambles being taken and you just wonder where they get their handicaps from. Another big gamble, Edinburgh went from -13.5 on pinnacle (who are by far the most in line with public opinion on rugby) to -18.5 in a couple of hours. London Irish opened at -3 and now at -6 too. And I'd still be a backer of London Irish at that handicap but I viewed the win as very, very likely so I stuck with that at good odds.

thomond2006

Old Balance: 57.86 units with .5 units freebet

- 4 units (8/13) Munster to win
- .5 units (11/4) Munster to get try BP
- .25 units (7/2) Conor Murray try in 80 mins*
- .125 units (5/1) James Cronin try in 80 mins*
- .125 units (6/1) Tommy O'Donnell try in 80 mins*

- 1 unit (3.69/1) Munster, Leinster and Ulster to win
- .5 units (10/11) Toulouse +6
- .5 units (10/11) Leicester -3

New Balance: 51.36 units

*Freebets used

matthew8

Metro -14 1.91 1 unit. Stade -11 1.91 1 unit which has to be the bet of the week. Strong side named against Bucharest. Gloucester -4 1.91 1 unit.

matthew8

Bit of a gamble taken on Toulouse. +2/3 from +6. Find it very tough to back either side though. Suppose Eastmond not being named might have been worth a point but Ollie DeVoto is an exciting prospect, seems like every future star for England has ended up at Bath.

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 57.86 units with .5 units freebet

- 4 units (8/13) Munster to win
- .5 units (11/4) Munster to get try BP
- .25 units (7/2) Conor Murray try in 80 mins* - Refunded as free bet - PP Special
- .125 units (5/1) James Cronin try in 80 mins*- Refunded as free bet - PP Special
- .125 units (6/1) Tommy O'Donnell try in 80 mins* - Refunded as free bet - PP Special

- 1 unit (3.69/1) Munster, Leinster and Ulster to win
- .5 units (10/11) Toulouse +6
- .5 units (10/11) Leicester -3

New Balance: 51.36 units

*Freebets used

New Balance: 58.78 with units .5 units freebet

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

New Balance: 58.78 with units .5 units freebet

.5 units freebet placed on 47 points or more in Leinster vs Castres - 15/8

skippymac6

Leinster -2 and Leinster over 22.5 points. Separate bets

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

58.72 with 56 staked. 15.57% yield so far this year. Western Province have a home game for a 2.5 point profit next week, bad start for Northampton's 5 units but they're still shorter than I got them, Bath horrific but hopefully they turn the tables on Toulouse next week and get 5, speculative bet anyway, only tempted by the 5/1.

67 staked and 62.14. Good thing Western Province came in but Bath look like 5 units down the drain.

thomond2006

USA +55 is available

With USA having their European based players and the NZ team being experimental, surely there's value in that?

sydthebeat

Sounds about 15 points too generous

matthew8

I don't really see the problem with that handicap. New Zealand have a good team out. They usually beat teams like the USA by amounts like that with a good team out.

matthew8

Ulster -17.5 1 unit 1.95.

thomond2006

Old Balance: 58.78 units

- 1 unit (10/11) Connacht +11
- .25 units (10/3) Bundee Aki try in 80 mins

- .25 units (9/5) Ben T'eo try in 80 mins

- 1 unit (10/11) Bordeaux Begles +8

- 1.5 units (10/11) USA +55

- 3 units (1/2) Munster to win
- .25 units (15/2) Rory Scannell to win
- .25 units (8/5) Munster try BP

- .5 units (11/8) Pau to win

New Balance: 50.78 units

sydthebeat

for the craic:


USA (+55.0) @ 10/11

Edinburgh (+21.0) @ 10/11

Castres (+7.0) @ 10/11

La Rochelle (-4.0) @ 10/11

New Zealand Maori (-18.0) @ 10/11

approx 25 / 1

gflann

Connacht to win 1-10pts 5/1

Zzippy

Massimo Bar Galway: Pints of Guinness €1 if Bundee Aki scores the first try

matthew8

1 unit Munster to win (moneyline) 1.64.

skippymac6

New Zealand to score 9 tries or more

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

67 staked and 62.14. Good thing Western Province came in but Bath look like 5 units down the drain.

69 staked and 61.78. Munster shocking but did the job. Ulster dominant but didn't.

Super Sidious

Toulon -15.5 I make them -22.5
Sarries -7 I make them -12.5

Super Sidious

Toulon -15.5 I make them -22.5
Sarries -7 I make them -12.5 :mad:

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 58.78 units

- 1 unit (10/11) Connacht +11
- .25 units (10/3) Bundee Aki try in 80 mins

- .25 units (9/5) Ben T'eo try in 80 mins

- 1 unit (10/11) Bordeaux Begles +8

- 1.5 units (10/11) USA +55

- 3 units (1/2) Munster to win
- .25 units (15/2) Rory Scannell to win
- .25 units (8/5) Munster try BP

- .5 units (11/8) Pau to win

New Balance: 50.78 units

New Balance: 55.27 units

Munster thankfully got over the line to avoid a complete disaster of a weekend!

thomond2006

South Africa available at -5, I think that's a few points too low! I think -8/-9 would be a fairer cap.

LostArt

Yeah it's too low, you'd almost have to take that bet!

matthew8

If the starting team is good enough I'll be backing Ireland on that handicap or to win. Without Best though it's a fair mark. In their last 5 visits SA have lost 3 times and won by 2 and 4 points. This isn't a special SA team. It's pretty typical for SA. They're a different team against NZ too. I think we'll be seeing them closer to the side that scraped by Argentina twice.

matthew8

Early fancies for the internationals, waiting on teams:
Ireland +5.5. Despite the injuries Ireland are still a really solid team and if there's one factor that's important to have on your side in a big game it's a good coach.
Fiji +26.5. Fiji I think are in great shape and could score a couple of tries. France are dysfunctional.
Maybe Australia and Argentina both at -2.5. I'll definitely need a look at the Argentinian team though. Scotland has a good SH record so maybe not. Australia have a new coach which is always tough for a team to get used to and they didn't look great at the weekend, but all the same you're getting good odds to bet against Wales playing one of the big 3.
The England game looks well handicapped at -7. England are dealing with a lot of injuries and are tough to back at this handicap but NZ simply haven't been as good as last year either.