Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

thomond2006

Old Balance: 44.24 units

- 5 units (5/4) Munster to win
- 2.5 units (10/11) Ulster to win
- 1 unit (12/5) Isa Nacewa try in 80 minutes
- .5 units (4.71/1) Munster, Leinster and Ulster to win

New Balance: 35.24 units

Del.Monte

I had Nacewa for a try last week and he let me down so I'll give him another chance this week. Ulster to win probably my only other bet.

thomond2006

I hope my recovery starts today. Disasterous start to the season betting wise.

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 44.24 units

- 5 units (5/4) Munster to win
- 2.5 units (10/11) Ulster to win
- 1 unit (12/5) Isa Nacewa try in 80 minutes
- .5 units (4.71/1) Munster, Leinster and Ulster to win

New Balance: 35.24 units

New Balance: 46.49 units

Del.Monte

My first woeful weekend for a while. Nacewa failed again yesterday; Munster couldn't manage more than 8.5 in the 1st half and at HT I reckoned that they were beat so went with Ospreys to win.....serves me right.

typhoony

My first world cup bet today, I can see Georgia putting it up to the Tongans in the 1st half, they've had some good first half performances over the last 12 months and they brought in some professional trainers to prepare them for the World Cup, I think the 12/5 to win the 1st half is worthy of a bet

thomasm

Looking at the England - Figi game and the 26 point spread on PP seems generous. Figi are no walkovers and all the pressure will be on England in opening game.

matthew8

I think England will hockey them. Fiji take decent form from the Pacific Nations Cup but the level of that competition is very poor. Full team out from England they'll want to lay down a marker. Last Autumn France put out a weaker team against Fiji and were still 24 point favourites (won by 25). Now England, who are better anyway, have a stronger team, more incentive to thrash them are only favoured by 2 more points. England -26.5 1.98. If it's a strong enough team from South Africa then they should very much cover the 44 point spread too against Japan. 38 points the Irish handicap, if we field a half strength team it's probably right.

Pudsy33

My experience of the last world cup was that, more often than not, the underdogs cover the spread in the first round of matches. To that end I've taken Fiji, Georgia, Japan and Argentina

skippymac6

The English game I think will be a blowout. I think if Fiji are going to be competitive, then it will be in the first half where they can frustrate England and keep the margin to about 7-10 points at ht. However, the second half when England become more confident and the pressure is off a bit more, is where I'd imagine that they'll cut loose. Fiji are in good heart after the Pacific Nations Cup win and the 47-18 win over Canada but I think they will be put to the sword by 30+

If Ireland play a 75% strength team they will win by in and around 35 points. Canada have lost their last 12 tests to the likes of USA and Japan (three times each), Samoa (twice) and Tonga. Last time out, they were beaten well by Fiji as I mentioned above. They are a country that concentrates on sevens nowadays and a lot of their 7s players such as Dala, Moonlight, Mack, Hearn etc will be doubling up in the RWC. I think Schmidt might send a close to full strength team to play Canada and then rest a few players against Romania before the big ones against Italy and France. 39 points is a lot to give up, but if the Canadian form is anything to go by, they should certainly be well capable of covering.

Neil3030

I have allowed myself a little bank to play with this World Cup - will track the bets on here. Beginning with a bank of 100 units, my first selections are:

Fiji +25 1/1 5 units
Tonga 1-12 8/5 5 units
Italy +17 1/1 5 units
SOB try in 80 mins 7/5 5 units
Louw try in 80 mins 5/6 5 units
Creevy try in 80 mins 6/1 5 units

thomond2006

Old Balance: 46.49 units

- 2.5 units (10/11) England vs Fiji over 55.5 points
- .25 units (15/2) Leone Nakarawa try in 80 minutes
- 1 unit (17/10) Keith Earls 2 or more tries
- 1 unit (17/10) Iain Henderson try in 80 minutes
- 1.5 units (evens) Ireland vs Canada second half over 4.5 tries
- 2 units (5/6) Gareth Davies try in 80 minutes

- 3 units (4/1) Julian Savea top tournament tryscorer

New Balance: 35.24 units

captbarnacles

Laying England at 1.03 for 10 units.

Del.Monte

Fiji to win 16/1; Fiji more than 6.5 in the 1st half and Nadolo to score a try 9/5.

Ireland to win the RWC 9/1 - well at that price, you gotta give it a lash.

Del.Monte

Happy days. It could have been a disaster, but Paddy Power's system crashed and prevented me from placing a bet on England to score than 38.5 during the game. There is a God.

closcriobh

Just backed Ireland at 12/1 on the Betfair Exchange. Surely could be a great trading opportunity if they do well in their group (as they should).

Pudsy33

closcriobh wrote: »

Just backed Ireland at 12/1 on the Betfair Exchange. Surely could be a great trading opportunity if they do well in their group (as they should).

They're only wins against France and Argentina away from a nice profit, nicely played.

Del.Monte

Conor Murray a try @ 5/4

and Jamie Heaslip a try @ evens.

JONJO THE MISER

Had no bet myself but a mate had 1,100 on Ireland -43 so by not going for the 3 easy points they have cost gamblers 100's of thousands.
You got to wonder sometimes....

sydthebeat

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Had no bet myself but a mate had 1,100 on Ireland -43 so by not going for the 3 easy points they have cost gamblers 100's of thousands.
You got to wonder sometimes....

Your mates an eejit

JONJO THE MISER

sydthebeat wrote: »

Your mates an eejit

Yeah after he told me i said you could of got Ireland -41.5 on Pinnacle, got to shop around.

mfceiling

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Had no bet myself but a mate had 1,100 on Ireland -43 so by not going for the 3 easy points they have cost gamblers 100's of thousands.
You got to wonder sometimes....

What have you got to wonder? They should have taken 3 points cause your mate had over a grand on them?

sydthebeat

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Yeah after he told me i said you could of got Ireland -41.5 on Pinnacle, got to shop around.

Could have got them -38 earlier in the week

Del.Monte

Del.Monte wrote: »

Conor Murray a try @ 5/4

and Jamie Heaslip a try @ evens.

Easy come, easy go.

Back on the horse with SA more than 24.5 @ 10/11

JONJO THE MISER

mfceiling wrote: »

What have you got to wonder? They should have taken 3 points cause your mate had over a grand on them?

Not just him but thousands of others.
I have seen blatant shaving of points often on College Football as a example, im not saying this is the case here but it is widespread in a lot of sports.

Pudsy33

Del.Monte wrote: »

Easy come, easy go.

Back on the horse with SA more than 24.5 @ 10/11

Where are you getting those odds! ?

Del.Monte

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Where are you getting those odds! ?

Sorry, should have said SA more than 24.5 in 1st half.

mfceiling

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Not just him but thousands of others.
I have seen blatant shaving of points often on College Football as a example, im not saying this is the case here but it is widespread in a lot of sports.

Yeah but what team captain instructs his team to take points because of what a lot of gamblers are backing?

Pudsy33

Del.Monte wrote: »

Sorry, should have said SA more than 24.5 in 1st half.

Ah unlucky with that one. SA have phoned it in so far

Del.Monte

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Ah unlucky with that one. SA have phoned it in so far

The team I dislike most beaten is an added bonus.