Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

thelad95

Wish I'd put a lot lot more on it now.

Del.Monte

All Blacks vs Argentina. No value to be had in this game but I'm going with Richie McCaw for a try @ 9/5 as a loyalty bet - it's Paddy's money anyway.

fuzzydunlop85

Alright lads, threw a speculative accum on at start of summer over a few sporting events and am waiting on nz to win the wc for 900 euro from 25 quid bet, not that knowledgeable on rugby should I let it ride or maybe cover it ? Wouldn't mind locking in a bit of profit , any advice on this ? Cheers.

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

I have allowed myself a little bank to play with this World Cup - will track the bets on here. Beginning with a bank of 100 units, my first selections are:

Fiji +25 1/1 5 units
Tonga 1-12 8/5 5 units
Italy +17 1/1 5 units
SOB try in 80 mins 7/5 5 units
Louw try in 80 mins 5/6 5 units
Creevy try in 80 mins 6/1 5 units

Fuming when Argentina kicked the points near the end of the first half with a man advantage in the pack - that was Creevy's time to crash over!

Oh well, small profit to kick things off:

Fiji +25 1/1 5 units WIN 5.00
Tonga 1-12 8/5 5 units LOSS -5.00
Italy +17 1/1 5 units LOSS -5.00
SOB try in 80 mins 7/5 5 units WIN 7.00
Louw try in 80 mins 5/6 5 units WIN 4.17
Creevy try in 80 mins 6/1 5 units LOSS -5.00

Profit/Loss 1.17
Balance 101.17

thelad95

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Alright lads, threw a speculative accum on at start of summer over a few sporting events and am waiting on nz to win the wc for 900 euro from 25 quid bet, not that knowledgeable on rugby should I let it ride or maybe cover it ? Wouldn't mind locking in a bit of profit , any advice on this ? Cheers.

Can you cash out early? I'd imagine the odds on NZ winning WC were considerably low so I'm guessing if you could cash out it would be around 550-650 mark?

fuzzydunlop85

thelad95 wrote: »

Can you cash out early? I'd imagine the odds on NZ winning WC were considerably low so I'm guessing if you could cash out it would be around 550-650 mark?

No cash out available unfortunately, was thinking maybe sticking a few quid on England and auz.

Neil3030

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Alright lads, threw a speculative accum on at start of summer over a few sporting events and am waiting on nz to win the wc for 900 euro from 25 quid bet, not that knowledgeable on rugby should I let it ride or maybe cover it ? Wouldn't mind locking in a bit of profit , any advice on this ? Cheers.

OPTION A:

Kiwis can be laid (layed?) to win the WC on Betfair at 2.24.

Assuming that 900 includes your initial stake (i.e. 875 profit) your acca was worth 35/1 (decimal 36.0).

You can guarantee yourself £365 regardless of what NZ do in the WC if you lay them now for a £411 backer's stake.

The only drawback with this, is that you'll need to put £510 into a Betfair account to cover your liability, until the end of the WC.

OPTION B:

A more risky option, but one that would get a better return, would be to make a dutch bet on the other teams likely to win the WC. For simplicity I'm going to assume your acca was 36.0 here.

You essentially now have NZ to win the WC at 35/1, £25 stake.

Let's assume (not a guarantee!) that the winner will either be NZ, England, Aus, SA, Ireland, France or Wales.

Make the following bets at the following prices on Betfair:

England: £132 @ 6.8
Australia: £102 @ 8.8
South Africa: £82 @ 11.0
Ireland: £78 @ 11.5
France: £64 @ 14.0
Wales: £23 @ 40.0

Assuming one of these teams (or NZ) win the WC you will profit £394 (minus BF commission of 5%).

Benefit with this method is that you only need £481 to cover things and you get a slightly higher return (around 370 after commission).

Drawback would be if someone like Argentina win the WC.

Bandana boy

you could fairly safely remove Wales from that bet

If i had that NZ bet i would have a saver on england to Cover me and let the rest ride

bajer101

Bandana boy wrote: »

you could fairly safely remove Wales from that bet

If i had that NZ bet i would have a saver on england to Cover me and let the rest ride

No need to remove Wales from the cover bet yet, he can wait a couple of weeks and see which two teams will go forward from that group. NZ will will get through to the QFs, so he can wait. If it was me I'd be tempted to just bet against NZ in the QF, SF and final. NZ will be favourites in every match so there will be plenty of scope.

On another note, Japan are 30/1 with PP to top Pool B. Their win against SA was no fluke and at 30/1 they might be worth a punt.

thomond2006

Beauden Barrett starting at 10 vs Namibia and is available at 11/10 to score a try. Seems overpriced to me. I'd expect him and Slade at 15 to play the full game, Ben Smith is on the bench but I imagine he may not be used.

Edit: Gone to 8/11, luckily I hoped on in time.

fuzzydunlop85

Cheers for the advice lads, still not quite sure what to do. Will wait a couple a couple weeks maybe and see how the tournament develops.

closcriobh

Japan +17 at EVS for me tomorrow in the hope that their win wasn't just fluke.

Neil3030

Fiji +26 evens 5 units
Japan +17 evens 5 units
John Hardie Try in 80 mins 11/4 5 units


New balance 86.7 units.

skippymac6

Scotland vs Japan -- over 49.5 points. I just feel the Scottish won't take the Japs for granted and they are a bit more creative now under Cotter. The Japenese kicker is decent and they should score their fair share of points too.

Oz vs Fiji -- Aussie -25 and over 54.5 points. I think the Fijians showed up well against the English first time out but I'd expect the Australians to have too much for them here and I think they might put up a lot of points on the Fijians.

awec

I'm tempted to do every favourite between now and Friday at their handicap.

Argentina -21
France -38
Scotland -16
NZ -77
Australia -25

Works out at an accum of about 28/1. Couple of worrying ones there, I am not sure Scotland would win by 16 and I am also not sure if NZ can hit a 77 point differential.

Tiger Mcilroy

awec wrote: »

I'm tempted to do every favourite between now and Friday at their handicap.

Argentina -21
France -38
Scotland -16
NZ -77
Australia -25

Works out at an accum of about 28/1. Couple of worrying ones there, I am not sure Scotland would win by 16 and I am also not sure if NZ can hit a 77 point differential.

It basically boils down to can the number one ranked team in the world score 11 unanswered tries against the number 20 ranked team... yes..they can do this as with the refs being told to watch everything at the breakdown/clearouts etc i see namibia getting battered and shipping at least 2 yellows in the match and tiring badly. I think the handicap is a bit skinny to be honest.

skippymac6

Neil3030 wrote: »

Fiji +26 evens 5 units
Japan +17 evens 5 units
John Hardie Try in 80 mins 11/4 5 units


New balance 86.7 units.

Those anytime try bets are being successful for you so far chief, fair play!

beertons

awec wrote: »

I'm tempted to do every favourite between now and Friday at their handicap.

Argentina -21
France -38
Scotland -16
NZ -77
Australia -25

Works out at an accum of about 28/1. Couple of worrying ones there, I am not sure Scotland would win by 16 and I am also not sure if NZ can hit a 77 point differential.

Might have been a different day had Mafi stayed on the pitch. Game on.

awec

beertons wrote: »

Might have been a different day had Mafi stayed on the pitch. Game on.

I am raging, I switched from Scotland -16 to Japan +16 at the last minute :mad:

beertons

awec wrote: »

I am raging, I switched from Scotland -16 to Japan +16 at the last minute :mad:

No way. I copied your bet.

Neil3030

skippymac6 wrote: »

Those anytime try bets are being successful for you so far chief, fair play!

Thanks man, got a bit lucky today though. As predicted he anchored their maul (my strategy, in a nutshell), but he actually scored a try from open play. Having said that, I think Japan were unlucky to lose by as much as they did (costing me the spread), so things balanced out.

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

Fiji +26 evens 5 units WIN
Japan +17 evens 5 units LOSS
John Hardie Try in 80 mins 11/4 5 units WIN

Nice profit today brings the balance to 110.45 units.

Neil3030

So tomorrow I will be hoping for a lot of tries!

btw all prices I get are on PaddyPower unless otherwise specified.

Codie Taylor Try in 80 mins 7/5
Liam Messam Try in 80 mins 8/5
Beauden Barrett Try in 80 mins 11/10 (Unibet)


All 5 units, bringing the balance to 95.45 units.

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 46.49 units

- 2.5 units (10/11) England vs Fiji over 55.5 points :mad:
- .25 units (15/2) Leone Nakarawa try in 80 minutes :mad:
- 1 unit (17/10) Keith Earls 2 or more tries :mad:
- 1 unit (17/10) Iain Henderson try in 80 minutes
- 1.5 units (evens) Ireland vs Canada second half over 4.5 tries :mad:
- 2 units (5/6) Gareth Davies try in 80 minutes

- 3 units (4/1) Julian Savea top tournament tryscorer

New Balance: 35.24 units

Balance: 41.61 units

- 2.5 units (11/10) Beauden Barrett try in 80 mins
- .25 units (6/1) Beauden Barrett 2 tries or more in 80 mins

- 3 units (4/1) Julian Savea top tournament tryscorer - open bet

New Balance: 38.86 units

MikeCork2009

I very rarely bet handicaps but New Zealand -75 at evens looked too good to pass by.

sydthebeat

MikeCork2009 wrote: »

I very rarely bet handicaps but New Zealand -75 at evens looked too good to pass by.

namibis first game out, whereas NZ played 4 days ago

id bet the other way myself

sydthebeat

My bets for the next few games

Nib

Why hide your stakes?

Pudsy33

Nib wrote: »

Why hide your stakes?

Stakes are your own business really, that's why people use the points system.

sydthebeat

Nib wrote: »

Why hide your stakes?

To prevent the begging letters when i win big