Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

sydthebeat

All_in_Flynn wrote: »

Really like NZ at -4.5. Where you getting that price?

Want to back France also but they’ve burnt me too many times before.

PP

the top two are @ 10/11 and the NZ is 4/6 ..... which gives a treble of slightly over 5/1

All_in_Flynn

sydthebeat wrote: »

PP

the top two are @ 10/11 and the NZ is 4/6 ..... which gives a treble of slightly over 5/1

Ah ok, cheers.

Loafing Oaf

Looking at an SF foursome of New Zealand, South Africa, England and Wales at round 4/1 as my main bet. Not sure Wales are much better than 50/50 to top their group though...

The real mccoy 91

Japan -39 10/11
Japan by 61 or more 9/2
Japan by 80 or more 35/1
Matsushima and laefele both score a try 6/4

Australia win by 1-12

Aldritt to score a try France to win 4/1
France -1 10/11

Sa +3 half time 1/1
Sa to win 9/5

Double on
Japan 61 or more
France -1
19/2

Miley Byrne

Match accumulator
Japan -40
Australia -16
South Africa +6
Namibia +29
England -39

Roughly 26/1


Pool winners accumulator
Pool A Ireland
Pool B South Africa
Pool C England
Pool D Australia

Roughly 10/1

aloooof

I'm wondering if there's any value in Earls top try-scorer @33/1. He only played 50-odd minutes in the warm-ups and is missing the Scotland game so, if he recovers quickly enough, he's likely to see a lot of minutes in the next 3 games. Could see him running in a few against Russia. (Was hoping it'd be closer to 50/1)

All_in_Flynn

aloooof wrote: »

I'm wondering if there's any value in Earls top try-scorer @33/1. He only played 50-odd minutes in the warm-ups and is missing the Scotland game so, if he recovers quickly enough, he's likely to see a lot of minutes in the next 3 games. Could see him running in a few against Russia. (Was hoping it'd be closer to 50/1)

Ye I think the price is a little short. Have you checked the market since team has been named? Would have expected it to drift a little given he’s not in the 23.

Del.Monte

Toe in water today with Russia -5.5 @ 4/5 in the first half.


Saturday, All Blacks -6 EVS looks good.


I'll hold off on Ireland/Scotland until weather forecast is more certain.

Hoppy Jack

Eire to exit at group stages 18/1 looks value

The real mccoy 91

Hoppy Jack wrote: »

Eire to exit at group stages 18/1 looks value

Lose to Scotland and Japan? Not for me.. better off backing them as singles anyway in both matches will work out better than 18s

sydthebeat

Hoppy Jack wrote: »

Eire to exit at group stages 18/1 looks value

lump on it then

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Looking at an SF foursome of New Zealand, South Africa, England and Wales at round 4/1 as my main bet.

Couldn't get this so went with a NZ-SA final as main bet
Also on Sexton top point scorer, England win/Farrell top point scorer and sundry small request-a-bets.

sydthebeat

i went a bit mad this weekend:

Handicap draw (ireland -9) ireland v scotland @ 25/1
treble (ireland -8, france-1, NZ -4.5) @5/1
japan -40 @ evens
Vakatawa to score a Try & France to win & over 43.5 Points @ 9/1
Matsushima to score 2 or more tries @ evens
japan to win between 41 - 50 points @ 5/1
earls top try scorer @ 33's

Del.Monte

Del.Monte wrote: »

Toe in water today with Russia -5.5 @ 4/5 in the first half.


Saturday, All Blacks -6 EVS looks good.


I'll hold off on Ireland/Scotland until weather forecast is more certain.

7-0 to Russia - after 6 mins.

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

i went a bit mad this weekend:

Handicap draw (ireland -9) ireland v scotland @ 25/1
treble (ireland -8, france-1, NZ -4.5) @5/1
japan -40 @ evens
Vakatawa to score a Try & France to win & over 43.5 Points @ 9/1
Matsushima to score 2 or more tries @ evens
japan to win between 41 - 50 points @ 5/1
earls top try scorer @ 33's

matsushima bet won before half time

sydthebeat

Del.Monte wrote: »

7-0 to Russia - after 6 mins.

your 0.5 was very valuable !

Miley Byrne

Del.Monte wrote: »

Toe in water today with Russia -5.5 @ 4/5 in the first half.

.

+5.5 surely?

Leinstertomas

France V Argentina- Try before 10 minutes @ 2/1
Argentina try before 32 mins 30 secs @ 10/11

****e

ClanofLams

Not gonna back it but Finn Russell looks a big price to be man of the match at 20-1, any shock is likely is to require an excellent performance from him.

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Also on Sexton top point scorer.

What are you doing to me Joe Schmidt?:mad:

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

i went a bit mad this weekend:

Handicap draw (ireland -9) ireland v scotland @ 25/1
treble (ireland -8, france-1, NZ -4.5) @5/1
japan -40 @ evens
Vakatawa to score a Try & France to win & over 43.5 Points @ 9/1
Matsushima to score 2 or more tries @ evens
japan to win between 41 - 50 points @ 5/1
earls top try scorer @ 33's

The treble and the matsushima bet have me in decent profit.

Funny that Ireland are gone from 10/1 to 7/1 immediately after that game.

sydthebeat

Taken Jonny may to score a try in the first ten minutes @9s.... For the craic

The real mccoy 91

sydthebeat wrote: »

The treble and the matsushima bet have me in decent profit.

Funny that Ireland are gone from 10/1 to 7/1 immediately after that game.

I think that happened yesterday after nz beat sa and the draw became clearer as England had drifted yesterday too

Pudsy33

First bet of the WC, gonna take Georgia +28.5 vs the Welsh

sydthebeat

youd currently get Australia +2 against wales


at the rate at which Australia can score tries and as hard as Wales get to score tries, thats good value currently i think.
the only thing that would really spin it strongly into wales favour is a wet rainy day... which is whats being forecasted.. but we're six days out for any secure forecast.


ireland -56 against russia seems a bit over the top.
only NZ versus canada is a higher spread in this years RWC so far.... and we dont get it as easy to score tries.

franglan

Pudsy33 wrote: »

First bet of the WC, gonna take Georgia +28.5 vs the Welsh

Sick. Took +36 myself, which didn't look to good for a while too.

Pudsy33

franglan wrote: »

Sick. Took +36 myself, which didn't look to good for a while too.

I'm surprised it was that close in the end given the first half!

Zzippy

sydthebeat wrote: »

ireland -56 against russia seems a bit over the top.
only NZ versus canada is a higher spread in this years RWC so far.... and we dont get it as easy to score tries.

A half-strength Connacht team put 42 points on Russia in Moscow 2 weeks ago. Although I think you're right that it seems over the top - the priority will be to get the bonus point secured then no injuries, so we may not go full gas to the end of the game.

sydthebeat

Zzippy wrote: »

A half-strength Connacht team put 42 points on Russia in Moscow 2 weeks ago. Although I think you're right that it seems over the top - the priority will be to get the bonus point secured then no injuries, so we may not go full gas to the end of the game.

yeah that would be my view... once the 4 try point is made... changes happen, game gets disrupted.... players minding themselves a bit....russia keep going for the pride points....


the only spread bet that was clearly beat was ireland, who were -8 and won by 24

Japan were -40, won by 20
aus -17, won by 18
england -45, won by 32
italy -34, won by 25
wales -29, won by 29

and the close ones
france -1, won by 2
NZ -8, won by 10

so on average the spread was negative 28, but positive 42.. which shows the underdogs did better than expected.

the spreads have expanded on average for the next few rounds, and i think on average they are still to0 wide against the underdogs.

(though i expect SA could put 80 on Namibia)

Bazzo

sydthebeat wrote: »

yeah that would be my view... once the 4 try point is made... changes happen, game gets disrupted.... players minding themselves a bit....russia keep going for the pride points....


the only spread bet that was clearly beat was ireland, who were -8 and won by 24

Japan were -40, won by 20
aus -17, won by 18
england -45, won by 32
italy -34, won by 25
wales -29, won by 29

and the close ones
france -1, won by 2
NZ -8, won by 10

so on average the spread was negative 28, but positive 42.. which shows the underdogs did better than expected.

the spreads have expanded on average for the next few rounds, and i think on average they are still to0 wide against the underdogs.

(though i expect SA could put 80 on Namibia)

Aus beating their handicap by a point isn't a close one?

sydthebeat

Bazzo wrote: »

Aus beating their handicap by a point isn't a close one?

I meant close spread before the game.

The real mccoy 91

Looking at cokanasinga for tries in the England game. With jj playing at 13 he is the ultimate creator in my eyes and cokanasinga won't be stopped 1v1.

Cokanasinga 2 or more tries 7/4
3 or more tries 6/1

sydthebeat

where are you getting 7/4??

PP is 5/6 for 2 tries

aloooof

And bet fair is 10/11. 3 or more is 16/5.

Rockbeast2

Billy V

First Try scorer(E/W)

11/1

PPs

Rockbeast2

^ Yeah! :-)

sydthebeat

Rockbeast2 wrote: »

^ Yeah! :-)

nice one

What way is the EW bet split? is it quarter odds?

Rockbeast2

^ E/W is quarter odds for try 1,2,or 3.

The real mccoy 91

sydthebeat wrote: »

where are you getting 7/4??

PP is 5/6 for 2 tries

Bit late getting back to you now but 365 had him 7/4 for 2. Pp is by far the worst for tryscorers value 365 much better and boyles you can also double anytimes with boyles

The real mccoy 91

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Bit late getting back to you now but 365 had him 7/4 for 2. Pp is by far the worst for tryscorers value 365 much better and boyles you can also double anytimes with boyles

Take the ireland game for example my tryscorer fancies atm with 0 research would be

Stockdale 1/2(pp) 8/13(boyles) 4/6(365)
2 or more 21/10(pp) 12/5(boyles) 3/1(365)

Ringrose 6/4 across all 3
2 or more 7/1(pp) 15/2(boyles) 10/1(365)

Farrell 11/5(pp) 21/10(boyles) 5/2(365)
2 or more 11/1(pp) 12/1(boyles) 20/1(365)

ClanofLams

Gone for 13-1 weekend accum of

Cheetahs
Dragons +17
Connacht
Georgia -17

All of Glasgow Munster and Scarlets missing double digit players at World Cup. Dragons beat Scarlets 34-17 in last pre season warmup, Dean Ryan taken over there could see some improvement.
Connacht best Munster by 9, were 23 up before subs.

Cheetahs made some good signings with new coach and won Currie cup and with Glasgow being weakened by World Cup can’t see them winning over there.

Think the 4 day turn around and adrenalin dump will kill Uruguay, can see that being heavy loss.

Rockbeast2

^ I forgot P14 is back!

Must check squads and put on a few bets!

sydthebeat

My confidence has grown. I think the Japanese will have one eye on the Scotland (and Samoa) game... And may perhaps be minding themselves a bit.

Ireland should be able to put in a TBP performance and keep the japs to about 10 points.

Ireland -21 @evens

Rockbeast2

* I agree with sydthebeat's optimism.

MikeCork2009

Rockbeast2 wrote: »

* I agree with sydthebeat's optimism.

Me too. I bet Ireland yesterday -20 @10/11

Rockbeast2

-20 ?!

Is that Ladsgobroke? I'm PPs.

Every point makes a huge difference. 5%?

Rockbeast2

*10/11 vs Evens

I will always take the wider spread where possible.

MikeCork2009

Rockbeast2 wrote: »

-20 ?!

Is that Ladsgobroke? I'm PPs.

Every point makes a huge difference. 5%?

That was with Bet365. It was -22 @ evens

Rockbeast2

I'm definitely going to open a couple new online accounts for quarters. +/-1 point is massive then.

sydthebeat

this weekend

RWC
ireland -21 @ evens
ireland to win 31-40 @9/2
1st tryscore L Mc Grath @16/1 e/w
1st tryscorer R Best @ 12/1 e/w

double SA -59, NZ -65 @ 7/2

pro14

Acca
cheetahs -6
treviso +14
connacht +2
ulster -13

@12/1


matt faddes anytime tryscorer @ 7/4