Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

The Pheasant2

TheJackAttack wrote: »

Right what are people betting on this weekend!?

No teams announced yet but, off the cuff;

- Munster + 10
- Conn win
- Ulster +5
- Glasgow win
- Scarlets win

I am staying away from Lein/Blues as that is the banana-skin, unless Leinster play the same side as last week then I'd go for Leinster win!

Surely you wouldn't get much off Munster +10 if the spread is 30 points in their favour? 'd almost be inclined to take Zebre +30 as they've actually been okish so far...they are away though so that could be a factor.

I'm also not sold on Connacht...Edinburgh are no great shakes themselves but Connacht have been pretty dire of late so could be risky

EDIT: Ah I see Thomond got there before me!

wp_rathead

I can also see Treviso at home beating Scarlets as well..

sydthebeat

acca for the weekend...

Mitre 10 Cup
Auckland (-7.0)

The Rugby Championship
South Africa (-3.0)

Guinness Pro 12
Zebre (+30.0)
Glasgow Warriors (-10.0)

returns 13.25

The Pheasant2

wp_rathead wrote: »

I can also see Treviso at home beating Scarlets as well..

Haha I was actually looking at backing Scarlets on the spread - all pending on their selection though as they actually have the ability to field a pretty good team should they choose to.

The Pheasant2

Handicap for Cardiff has gone from 2 to 4 after Leinster's selection

sydthebeat

Treble for the weekend

Leinster -4
Nz -12
Aussies -8

@6/1

Leinster very good value imo, that spread.is probably 4 points too short

The Pheasant2

sydthebeat wrote: »

Treble for the weekend

Leinster -4
Nz -12
Aussies -8

@6/1

Leinster very good value imo, that spread.is probably 4 points too short

Went with:

Leinster -4
Ulster -4
NZ -11

TheJackAttack

I think NZ will win this weekend, but the loss of Smith and media attention will cause a couple of errors and will play on the mind of the players.. SA +11 for me

The Pheasant2

TheJackAttack wrote: »

I think NZ will win this weekend, but the loss of Smith and media attention will cause a couple of errors and will play on the mind of the players.. SA +11 for me

Yeah unfortunately I'd the bet down before the Smith incident was revealed...in any case TJP and TKB are both fine scrummies - hopefully it won't destabilise the blacks too much

sydthebeat

TheJackAttack wrote: »

I think NZ will win this weekend, but the loss of Smith and media attention will cause a couple of errors and will play on the mind of the players.. SA +11 for me

opposite i think for me...

TJ has opportunity to make a real mark away in SA.
Naholo back.
Matt Todd to have a stormer and give the coach some real selection headaches.

saffers have a scrum half and out half in their back 3... i think NZ will make great profit out wide. De allande and de jong are glorified bashers in the centre and will be easy enough to nullify.

Del.Monte

What a roller coaster of a weekend. I did okay with the Connacht game last night and put everything on the Leinster/Munster clash with a couple of small bets on try scorers - both of which failed - but fortunately the bulk went on Munster over 6.5 points in the 1st half.

I was really cross with myself at half time when Munster failed to get more than 7.5 in the 1st half - why had I not gone with try scorers in the NZ game instead. The whole weekend's budget gone! Imagine my delight when I checked my account a few minutes ago to find that the bet was more than 6.5 not 7.5! Premature senile decay, but at least I'm 70% ahead - winnings transferred back to PayPal to prevent any foolishness.

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

Treble for the weekend

Leinster -4
Nz -12
Aussies -8

@6/1

Leinster very good value imo, that spread.is probably 4 points too short

Yep, thank you dean mumm

Bazzo

sydthebeat wrote: »

Yep, thank you dean mumm

Had the same bet but with Connacht to beat the spread too. The Aussies fairly had me sweating...

diusmr8a504cvk

Thinking of betting on the first round of Champions Cup fixtures next week, I've no odds yeat but could I get ye're thoughts on these?
Wasps to beat Zebre
Leinster to beat Castres
Toulouse to beat Connacht
Sale to beat Scarlets
Racing to beat Munster
Clermont to beat Exeter

sydthebeat

Andi High Stutterer wrote: »

Thinking of betting on the first round of Champions Cup fixtures next week, I've no odds yeat but could I get ye're thoughts on these?
Wasps to beat Zebre
Leinster to beat Castres
Toulouse to beat Connacht
Sale to beat Scarlets
Racing to beat Munster
Clermont to beat Exeter

you wont get any value on wasps

toulouse beating connacht is the banana skin in that list in my opinion. Dont really know how connacht will be lifted by last weekends result. Also, sale might look at the group they are in a say feck it lets focus on the premiership. scarlets at home arent a push over.

racing will beat munster well
leinster will beat castre, and probably by above the spread

clermont are usually slow starters and dont travel all that well but mostly just do enough so id expect exeter to beat the spread here

if i was to guess the handicaps at this stage id have
Wasps -24
Leinster -9
Toulouse (scr)
Sale +2
Racing -14
Clermont -12

diusmr8a504cvk

sydthebeat wrote: »

you wont get any value on wasps

toulouse beating connacht is the banana skin in that list in my opinion. Dont really know how connacht will be lifted by last weekends result. Also, sale might look at the group they are in a say feck it lets focus on the premiership. scarlets at home arent a push over.

racing will beat munster well
leinster will beat castre, and probably by above the spread

clermont are usually slow starters and dont travel all that well but mostly just do enough so id expect exeter to beat the spread here

if i was to guess the handicaps at this stage id have
Wasps -24
Leinster -9
Toulouse (scr)
Sale +2
Racing -14
Clermont -12

Yep, Wasps are 1/500, 10/11 with -39.5 spread!
Any tips for Glasgow/Leicester and Northampton/Montpellier?
Was thinking Leicester but unsure about the other game.

Del.Monte

Ezeter will beat Clermont, and Connacht could see off Toulouse.

sydthebeat

Andi High Stutterer wrote: »

Yep, Wasps are 1/500, 10/11 with -39.5 spred!
Any tips for Glasgow/Leicester and Northampton/Montpellier?

i was way out with wasps and clermont, for very different reasons.

im surprised clermont are +1 !!

Both those games above are a coin toss but at a push id have to fancy montpellier with their multinational back line. I havent seen enough of Leicester this season to make a call on that one.

joshrogan

Connacht at 6/4 good value for the win, Toulouse hardly set the top 14 alight so far and would struggle with Connacht's intensity. If I was backing it I'd back it before the teams are released.

sydthebeat

some big movement during the day

clermont have gone down 4 points to -3 (just about good value)
wasps gone to -42

for the craic...

Clermont Auvergne @ 10/11
(-3.0)

Racing 92 @ 10/11
(-12.0)

Montpellier @ 10/11
(+2.0)

Leinster @ 10/11
(-13.0)

Connacht @ 10/11
(+3.0)

thomond2006

Munster are +14 on PP, I don't think I've seen a cap like that for a Munster team in Europe.

TheJackAttack

D. Varley made a point on seconds captains about Munster playing Leinster before the H Cup in Pro 12 and losing, then putting in a solid performance the following week in H Cup. I think +14 is big.

I would fancy connacht as well +3

I watched the Sarries/Wasps game Sunday. Wasps conceded quite a few late tries and did well to put it upto Sarries who were on a different level physically.. Not a fan of big handicaps, Zebre have had a few good results this season? Beating connacht and getting close to glasgow?

aloooof

I was look at the Zebre handicap, +44. They've had some tight games at home (including the game they were beating Connacht which was abandoned) but have shipped heavy scores against Munster and Ospreys on the road. I was at the game in Thomond and they pretty much capitulated once Munster got the 2nd try, around the 20-odd minute.

diusmr8a504cvk

Placed this yesterday, not exactly a high return but I'm confident enough of it.
€5 stake
Wasps to beat Zebre - 1/100
Leinster to beat Castres - 1/9
Toulouse to beat Connacht - 4/9
Bordeaux to beat Ulster - 4/9
Racing to beat Munster - 1/9
Returns €13.10.

matthew8

aloooof wrote: »

I was look at the Zebre handicap, +44. They've had some tight games at home (including the game they were beating Connacht which was abandoned) but have shipped heavy scores against Munster and Ospreys on the road. I was at the game in Thomond and they pretty much capitulated once Munster got the 2nd try, around the 20-odd minute.

Wasps were able to beat Leinster by 41 last year. They're a perfect side at running up the score. No rain forecast either. Tough to see Zebre putting up any sort of fight at all. Zebre +44 not a bet I'd take.

Would have to see the teams but Sale +5 away to Scarlets looks good, as does Exeter +2 at home to Clermont.

Sundance_Kid

What's the verdict on the Glasgow v Leicester game? Anyone seen much of Leicester?

thomond2006

A clean sweep for the provinces is available at 56/1 on PP. Worth a euro.

Del.Monte

thomond2006 wrote: »

A clean sweep for the provinces is available at 56/1 on PP. Worth a euro.

Might as well chuck your Euro down the drain.

Bazzo

Carty actually scores quite a bit for an outhalf, fancy him @7/1 to score a try any time.

Interested Observer

thomond2006 wrote: »

A clean sweep for the provinces is available at 56/1 on PP. Worth a euro.

Maybe a euro but not a penny more.