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Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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    #2072
    matthew8
    Registered Users Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    I always tend to prefer the away underdog in the Italian derby as there's never much difference between the quality of the 2 sides. The 6 point handicap looks much too big given Zebre definitely look better to me and I wouldn't imagine there's a big home field advantage in a dead stadium between 2 teams in the same part of the country. Zebre +6 looks a great bet.


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    #2073
    Bazzo
    Registered Users Posts: 7,047 ✭✭✭Bazzo


    FACECUTTR wrote: »
    Treviso -6 with Saracens Glasgow Toulouse La Rochelle and Ulster to win. Nearly 18-1

    Betting against your own team? Shame on you :P


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    #2074
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,545 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    matthew8 wrote: »
    I always tend to prefer the away underdog in the Italian derby as there's never much difference between the quality of the 2 sides. The 6 point handicap looks much too big given Zebre definitely look better to me and I wouldn't imagine there's a big home field advantage in a dead stadium between 2 teams in the same part of the country. Zebre +6 looks a great bet.

    the difference being Treviso have just come off a double European victory against Bayonne whereas a full strength Zebre shipped 90 points to toulouse.

    treviso have their main first team back line out and most of their forwards.
    sgarbi and benvenuti will cause a lot of damage.


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    #2075
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,545 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    FACECUTTR wrote: »
    Treviso -6 with Saracens Glasgow Toulouse La Rochelle and Ulster to win. Nearly 18-1

    glasgow could be the banana skin there


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    #2076
    matthew8
    Registered Users Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    the difference being Treviso have just come off a double European victory against Bayonne whereas a full strength Zebre shipped 90 points to toulouse.

    treviso have their main first team back line out and most of their forwards.
    sgarbi and benvenuti will cause a lot of damage.

    I don't see why you'd read anything into those European results. The Bayonne games may as well have been friendlies given the strengths of the teams, and Zebre rested tons of players for their trip to Toulouse, with 8 changes in the starting team this week. It's not like these Italian teams ever get on a roll anyway. Zebre have their first team out too and to me it looks stronger on paper, in addition to their better results than Treviso in the league this year. If the weather didn't intervene in their Connacht game Zebre would probably be 6 points ahead of Treviso, and their points difference is much better too.


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    #2077
    FACECUTTR
    Registered Users Posts: 1,533 ✭✭✭FACECUTTR


    Bazzo wrote: »
    Betting against your own team? Shame on you :P

    Well if I lost the bet on Connacht winning I'd be more than happy.
    Just looks too weak in midfield and nothing on the bench to cover it.


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    #2078
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,545 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    my bet of the weekend

    Treviso -6 V Zebre

    So doubling through this bet with munster -6

    It pains me to bet against Leinster but I think the value is there on munsters side.


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    #2079
    Johngoose
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭Johngoose


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    my bet of the weekend

    Treviso -6 V Zebre

    Fair play I had Zebre +10 in an accumulator and went horribly wrong. I also thought Boudreaux at home was a banker!Bad weekend in the betting office for me.


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    #2080
    hunkydory1
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭hunkydory1


    Scarlets +8 on the handicap today worth a shout. In good form with a decent team and will be up for it as it's a derby. They beat the Ospreys in this fixture last season.

    Also a nibble on Johnny McNicholl as an anytime try scorer at 3's


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    #2081
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,545 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    So doubling through this bet with munster -6

    It pains me to bet against Leinster but I think the value is there on munsters side.

    Those bets turned over a very tasty profit.

    Leinster -9 for next week's game looks value already.


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    #2082
    wp_rathead
    Registered Users Posts: 10,071 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    Munster +7 looks smashing value considering Connacht gonna be without Aki, Dillane and Muldoon (amongst host of others)


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    #2083
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    wp_rathead wrote: »
    Munster +7 looks smashing value considering Connacht gonna be without Aki, Dillane and Muldoon (amongst host of others)

    I posted a possible Munster side, even with that team I think there's a good chance of an LBP.

    Gone to +5 on PP now.


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    #2084
    diusmr8a504cvk
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,959 ✭✭✭diusmr8a504cvk


    Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leinster, Connacht and Scarlets all to win on Saturday and Sunday gives odds of 4.22 on PaddyPower. Will probably put a few on that.


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    #2085
    Johngoose
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭Johngoose


    Andi High Stutterer wrote: »
    Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leinster, Connacht and Scarlets all to win on Saturday and Sunday gives odds of 4.22 on PaddyPower. Will probably put a few on that.

    How are Connacht looking team wise?


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    #2086
    hunkydory1
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭hunkydory1


    Andi High Stutterer wrote: »
    Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leinster, Connacht and Scarlets all to win on Saturday and Sunday gives odds of 4.22 on PaddyPower. Will probably put a few on that.

    Check our Edinburgh's record away against Zebre. It's not great.


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    #2087
    Johngoose
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭Johngoose


    What do people make of Connacht v Munster? Both putting out weakened teams...


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    #2088
    Bazzo
    Registered Users Posts: 7,047 ✭✭✭Bazzo


    Johngoose wrote: »
    What do people make of Connacht v Munster? Both putting out weakened teams...

    Connacht are narrow favourite I'd say. Munster will more than likely be fielding a mostly second stream team and Connacht have a good record against them recently. On the other hand Connacht are absolutely ravaged with injuries and Munster are in a good run of form. I'd wait until I see the teams to make my mind up to be honest.


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    #2089
    Johngoose
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭Johngoose


    Andi High Stutterer wrote: »
    Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leinster, Connacht and Scarlets all to win on Saturday and Sunday gives odds of 4.22 on PaddyPower. Will probably put a few on that.

    I'd agree with Glasgow and Leinster.Scarlets and Cardiff Blues could go down to the wire.Id nearly go Munster +3 against Connacht.


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    #2090
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,084 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Bazzo wrote: »
    Connacht are narrow favourite I'd say. Munster will more than likely be fielding a mostly second stream team and Connacht have a good record against them recently. On the other hand Connacht are absolutely ravaged with injuries and Munster are in a good run of form. I'd wait until I see the teams to make my mind up to be honest.

    I fancy Munster tbh. They're in such a good run of form and Connacht are all over the shop. I know they'll be playing the second string but Connacht won't be far off that either and they've much less depth.


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    #2091
    cup of tea
    Registered Users Posts: 749 ✭✭✭cup of tea


    Agree with the above big lot depends on which Kealtley turns up. Its not a bad Munster team in fairness with a very strong bench with the like of Taute and Kilcoyne able to come on (to name just two).Wheras Connacht wont have any sort of extra gear off the bench.

    Think the 11/5 on Munster is a great price with 888bet and won't last and I think you are getting 11/5 on a 50/50 split (imo). Similarly think the +6 with bet365 at 10/11 isnt a bad line or price and again the +6 probably won't last. I like the -10 line for Glasgow against Treviso as well at 10/11, it is -11 & -12 is a lot of other places and they should be gunning for the Bonus point 4 tries.

    I was thinking of backing Leinster on the handicap before the teams came out, but although their pack is far superior, their back line looks septic enough and no Johnny sexton either and the Leinster handicap is high enough so I'm going to leave it off.


    Munster to win 11/5 Single
    Glasgow -10 10/11 Single

    Munster +6 10/11
    Glasgow -10 10/11 Double


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    #2092
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,545 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Glad I took leinster at -9

    Doing a small double on munster +6 and ospreys -7 as well


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    #2093
    Johngoose
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭Johngoose


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Glad I took leinster at -9

    Doing a small double on munster +6 and ospreys -7 as well

    How bad is the Ulster team being fielded?Is Ulster +13 a good bet?


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    #2094
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,545 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Johngoose wrote: »
    How bad is the Ulster team being fielded?Is Ulster +13 a good bet?

    Those Ulster backs can do real damage if they can get clean ball.
    However leinsters forwards will cause mayhem.

    +13 is decent if you're getting 10/11 on it.
    Any less than that and it's losing value.

    If leinster have four tries by say 65 mins, they might take the foot off and Ulster could run in some late ones, so it's a hard call.


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    #2095
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,545 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Glad I took leinster at -9

    Doing a small double on munster +6 and ospreys -7 as well

    Great Christmas all round for my bets.


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    #2096
    Johngoose
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭Johngoose


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Great Christmas all round for my bets.

    Good man I should have listened to you.Any picks for weekend?


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    #2097
    hunkydory1
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭hunkydory1


    Johngoose wrote: »
    Good man I should have listened to you.Any picks for weekend?

    Montpellier, Glasgow, Ospreys and Wasps for me. But no odds available yet.


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    #2098
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,545 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Johngoose wrote: »
    Good man I should have listened to you.Any picks for weekend?

    Gonna wait to see what teams are announced but zebre -29 might be value if leinster put out a seriously under strength side. I fully expect the TBP but zebre could put 13-16 points up putting that spread under threat.

    Dragons -8 is also looking ok at this stage, but let's see what team they put out. They've been pretty much fully strength all over the Christmas


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    #2099
    wp_rathead
    Registered Users Posts: 10,071 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    Scarlets -3 vs Ulster seems tempting


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    #2100
    diusmr8a504cvk
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,959 ✭✭✭diusmr8a504cvk


    Might seem like a long shot but I'd be relatively confident of these 6 games:
    Dragons to beat Treviso - 2/9
    Leinster to beat Zebre - 1/50
    Scarlets to beat Ulster - 4/6
    Ospreys to beat Connacht - 1/7
    Munster to beat Racing - 8/15
    Glasgow to beat Cardiff - 1/4
    Total odds of 3.55 (They were 6.12 an hour and twenty minutes ago). Odds aren't fantastic unfortunately. The biggest worries there would be Scarlets and maybe Glasgow although Scarlets have been unbeatable at home but Glasgow have been iffy.


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    #2101
    FACECUTTR
    Registered Users Posts: 1,533 ✭✭✭FACECUTTR


    Andi High Stutterer wrote: »
    Might seem like a long shot but I'd be relatively confident of these 6 games:
    Dragons to beat Treviso - 2/9
    Leinster to beat Zebre - 1/50
    Scarlets to beat Ulster - 4/6
    Ospreys to beat Connacht - 1/7
    Munster to beat Racing - 8/15
    Glasgow to beat Cardiff - 1/4
    Total odds of 3.55 (They were 6.12 an hour and twenty minutes ago). Odds aren't fantastic unfortunately. The biggest worries there would be Scarlets and maybe Glasgow although Scarlets have been unbeatable at home but Glasgow have been iffy.

    I backed Treviso to beat the Dragon's. They just look half decent in the last while and I think they could sneak it.


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