RaboPro12 13/14 season thread

irishbucsfan

You would expect Leinster to finish 1st with them concentrating on the league now. Their game against Ulster would be tough but I can see them getting a LBP. I'd expect 2 wins and 2 bonus points, so that's 10 points leaving them on 79 at the end of the league.

Ulster are missing big players and that could be telling. The worst possible run in (I suppose the Leinster game could have been in the RDS to make it the worst possible). It could all hinge on how Munster do against Toulon, but I expect Munster to lose that game and so they will be focusing on the Rabo by the time Ulster go down to TP. So I would guess we'll see 1 win (against Leinster) and 2 bonus points from Ulster, leaving them on 71 points.

Munster have two easier games sandwiching the H Cup semi final. The fact they're both away from home means I'll predict they'll win both without BPs. I think they can beat Ulster at home as well (although as above, performance in H Cup could dictate that). So I think you could see 3 wins from Munster with no bonus points, leaving them on 75.

Glasgow have a really easy run in apart from the Ulster game. They don't need to win the Ulster game, but at home against a weakened Ulster team they certainly have a chance. They should beat the rest of those sides, and they should be targeting BPs at home. So for Glasgow I'm predicting 4 wins with 2 bonus points, leaving them on 78.

Ospreys have probably the easiest run in, and you would expect them to win all three games comfortably. Two of them are away from home so I'm guessing 2 BPs, leaving them on 70 and missing out.


So I think that'll leave us with semi finals of
Leinster v. Ulster
Glasgow v. Munster

But that is really dependent on some really important games between the playoff contenders. I think Ospreys are gone at this point.

durkadurka

Ulster certainly have three losable games.

awec

I think I'd take a trip to the RDS for the semi final. If we had some players back I'd fancy our chances.

Tox56

durkadurka wrote: »

Leinster's run in (69 points):
Treviso (H) 5, Ulster (A)1, Edinburgh (H) 5

Ulster's run in (65 points):
Glasgow (A)4, Leinster (H)4, Munster (A)1

Munster's run in (63 points):
Connacht (A)4, Edinburgh (A)5, Ulster (H)4

Glasgow's run in (60 points):
Ulster (H)1, Edinburgh (H)5, Treviso (A)4, Zebre (H)5

Ospreys' run in (56 points):
Dragons (A)4, Zebre (A)4, Connacht (H)5

Leinster - 80
Munster - 76
Glasgow - 75
Ulster - 74

Think Glasgow will surprise some people, I really rate them as a team. For Leinster it looks like Ulster or Glasgow in Dublin for the semi, and after the last two seasons (where Glasgow have come seriously close to winning in the RDS at the same stage and played some incredible rugby) theyre due a win, which tie is the worse of those 2 is not as obvious as youd think.

As we're out of Europe we'll be 100% focused but none of the possible games (if things go a certain way we could be very easily be playing any of the current top 4 in the semi) will be easy. Even if we finish top we're going to have 2 massive games if we want to win it

Eod100

So for Munster to get a home semi they need to win all their remaining games and hope Ulster beat Glasgow by more than 7. Then it'll be Munster on 75 (no tbp) and Glasgow on max 75 (3 tbp). Both level on matches won, so Munster go through on points difference.

Kinda forgot Ospreys are still kinda in the mix. Guess their win the other night and Ulster having a fairly horrible last few games keeps them in.

I'm gonna go with:

Leinster's run in (69 points):
Treviso (H) 5, Ulster (A)4, Edinburgh (H) 5

Ulster's run in (65 points):
Glasgow (A)4, Leinster (H)1, Munster (A)1

Munster's run in (63 points):
Connacht (A)4, Edinburgh (A)4, Ulster (H)4

Glasgow's run in (60 points):
Ulster (H)4, Edinburgh (H)4, Treviso (A)5, Zebre (H)5

Ospreys' run in (56 points):
Dragons (A)5, Zebre (A)5, Connacht (H)4

Leinster 83
Glasgow 78
Munster 75
Ulster 71

CatFromHue

While Ospreys only have 5 TBP they've scored the most tries in the league. I wouldn't be surprised if they got 3 try bonus point wins.

Ulster need to perform to be sure of their play off spot.

Now for the stat attack, Ulster have only won once in Glasgow since 09/10.

vienne86

I think the order will be

Leinster
Glasgow
Munster
Ulster

Ulster have an awful run in and need to be careful. Munster trip to Glasgow is very tough, and I would fancy Glasgow to win that. So it could be Leinster Glasgow final in the RDS. Leinster will need to tighten up and cut out the mistakes - and I am not as confident as I would normally be.

Eod100

matthew8 wrote: »

Munster could miss out on the playoffs by the looks of things. Ospreys should pick up 14 points meaning Munster will need to win 2 out of their 3 games. Not an easy task given 2 are away, the one home game is very difficult and their main focus is on Europe.

I'm doubtful that Munster will get a home semi but doubt they'll miss out on the play-offs altogether. If Ospreys get 14 points, Munster should win against Connacht and Edinburgh. Even if Ospreys get 15 points (which I don't see happening), 2 wins for Munster will put see them through. They'll both be on 71 points but Munster go through with more matches won.

Don't think it'll happen but think Ulster are more at risk of missing out on play-offs than Munster, their next 3 games will be tough very. I wouldn't be too shocked if they get 1 win and 2 lbps out of it.

CatFromHue

1 win and 2 LBP for Ulster will get them through. They'd finish up on 71 pts which is the max that Ospreys can get with 3BP wins but Ulster would finish on 15 wins and Ospreys on 14. When teams finish on the same number of points the next deciding factor is the number of wins.

CatFromHue

Is the Rabo going to run during RWC15?

The pool stages don't end 'til 10/11 Oct and the comp itself doesn't end until 31 Oct.

I know the Aviva will be starting late to accommodate it

durkadurka

It did last time anyhow. I think there were six games During the RWC.

CatFromHue

Yeah and the ITM Cup was run earlier in NZ that year so not to have any local rugby on during the comp.

There's a good few games on in Cardiff for RWC15 though.

It'd be funny if Cardiff ended up with a home game the same weekend as a RWC game in the Millenium!

Cookiemunster

CatFromHue wrote: »

Is the Rabo going to run during RWC15?

The pool stages don't end 'til 10/11 Oct and the comp itself doesn't end until 31 Oct.

I know the Aviva will be starting late to accommodate it

The Aviva ran during the 2011 RWC as did the Pro12 and Top14. This difference this time I suppose it that it's on in the same country and the IRB don't want any other games on there clashing with the RWC.

justsomebloke

Glasgow were imeness this evening and could well be the deserved winners this year

vienne86

justsomebloke wrote: »

Glasgow were imeness this evening and could well be the deserved winners this year

Ulster were not good tonight, but were unlucky that Glasgow were awarded a try, when the 'scorer' clearly thought he had not scored. I think a Leinster v Glasgow final looks on the cards.

justsomebloke

vienne86 wrote: »

Ulster were not good tonight, but were unlucky that Glasgow were awarded a try, when the 'scorer' clearly thought he had not scored. I think a Leinster v Glasgow final looks on the cards.

Ulster weren't unlucky about the try, they still would of lost without getting a bp.

Ye I think Glasgow are on course for a final but who they face I think is still a bit unclear as I don't think Leinster are as good as they need to be and should be this season

Swan Curry

Even if you factor in tiredness from the Heineken Cup,I don't see Munster losing to Glasgow twice in the space of about a month.

awec

Leinster v Glasgow must be the most likely final.

its_phil

awec wrote: »

Leinster v Glasgow must be the most likely final.

I don't mean any offence to the other 3 provinces but I would love Glasgow to win it. It would be fantastic for the game up there if they won it.

justsomebloke

its_phil wrote: »

I don't mean any offence to the other 3 provinces but I would love Glasgow to win it. It would be fantastic for the game up there if they won it.

Ye wouldn't begrudge them winning it, however unfortunately I don't know if it will actually help the game up there, as with the ospreys I just don't think it will do anything

errlloyd

justsomebloke wrote: »

Ye wouldn't begrudge them winning it, however unfortunately I don't know if it will actually help the game up there, as with the ospreys I just don't think it will do anything

I think the attitude towards the rabo particularly poor in Wales.

Hagz

Leinster v Munster final for me.

vienne86

justsomebloke wrote: »

Ulster weren't unlucky about the try, they still would of lost without getting a bp.

Ye I think Glasgow are on course for a final but who they face I think is still a bit unclear as I don't think Leinster are as good as they need to be and should be this season

I agree that Ulster were never going to get a bonus point playing like that, but I still think that Glasgow got a fortunate call from the video ref and were very lucky to be awarded that try......and Ulster were therefore unlucky with that decision.

I also agree that Leinster will need to sharpen up. Glasgow are very impressive.

legendary.xix

errlloyd wrote: »

I think the attitude towards the rabo particularly poor in Wales.

It'll have to change unless they are happy with 1 or 2 places in Europe's elite competition. I'm taking more notice of the rabo table now the bar has been raised somewhat. Teams can't just stroll in any more. It'll be interesting to see if stronger teams are named more often.

Glasgow have been going well. Two good results in their top 4 push.

thelad95

Could Glasgow nick top spot? They have three games left, at home to Edinburgh, away to Treviso and at home to Zebre. Could easily get 15 out of 15. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ulster beat Leinster and then even if Leinster get a bonus point win over Edinburgh on the last day, Glasgow would have more wins.

vienne86

thelad95 wrote: »

Could Glasgow nick top spot? They have three games left, at home to Edinburgh, away to Treviso and at home to Zebre. Could easily get 15 out of 15. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ulster beat Leinster and then even if Leinster get a bonus point win over Edinburgh on the last day, Glasgow would have more wins.

Glasgow could very well get top spot. Leinster will have to stay very focussed to come out on top. Losing bonus point against Ulster would be important. Mind you, Ulster are in trouble with injuries.......particularly at prop.

Taco Corp

if Glasgow finish first and get to the final, where would it be?

its_phil

Captain_Hindsight wrote: »

if Glasgow finish first and get to the final, where would it be?

Ibrox or Celtic Park? I'd probably go if it was played in either of those grounds.

thelad95

its_phil wrote: »

Ibrox or Celtic Park? I'd probably go if it was played in either of those grounds.

Don't think so would make for a dead atmosphere. Murrayfield the most likely destination I reckon.

Edit: Just remembered Murrayfield is closed because of a maggot infection. How about the ironically named Rugby Park in Kilmarnock? About half an hour drive from Glasgow and capacity of 20000 odd.

Tox56

thelad95 wrote: »

Could Glasgow nick top spot? They have three games left, at home to Edinburgh, away to Treviso and at home to Zebre. Could easily get 15 out of 15. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ulster beat Leinster and then even if Leinster get a bonus point win over Edinburgh on the last day, Glasgow would have more wins.

No, Leinster can lose to Ulster (by 7 or less) and still be first even if Glasgow get maximum points from here on in.

It all depends on getting that losing bonus point in Ulster though

awec

That game will all depend on what sort of team Ulster can field.

awec

So just looking at it, it looks like if Ulster can get to 71 points we should be ok. Ospreys are on 56 and I'd be surprised to see them get 15/15 points available.

That would mean Ulster need either a TBP Leinster and LBP in Munster or just 2 wins. Neither scenario very likely unfortunately.

If we end up on 70 points then we will be looking very nervously over our shoulder at Ospreys.

Less than 70 and we're done for.

.ak

Glasgow winning it would be great for the league.

But Leinster winning it will be great for Leinster, and that's all they'll be thinking about. Leinster will be baying for blood from here on out. A LBP in Ravenhill and it's all home games from there on in.

awec

What's the criteria for teams on even points?

Is it head to head record first?

Podge_irl

awec wrote: »

What's the criteria for teams on even points?

Is it head to head record first?

Number of matches won.

DGRulz

Another win for Zebre this season. Just beat Edinburgh 26 - 13.

CatFromHue

Don't think they'll be able to get ahead of Treviso though, their run in is much harder.

Morf

Pretty darn encouraging for Zebre though.

Especially after last year . . .. and Aironi.

[Jackass]

If Leinster were to manage a home final in the play-offs, what do you reckon the chances of holding it in Lansdowne will be?

It will be the first time in 3 years Leinster will have a pro12 final without a European final the week before, so all the focus (and spending power) of the fans will be focused on the league this year and there will be a two week lead in to the final (if Leinster were to make it) in which to sell tickets. If it was against Ulster or Munster were to make it and no longer have European interests, it would make it even more likely to sell out.

I'd love to see the Pro12 final be given the big day treatment it deserves beyond smaller stadia.

neilmulvey

[Jackass] wrote: »

If Leinster were to manage a home final in the play-offs, what do you reckon the chances of holding it in Lansdowne will be?

It will be the first time in 3 years Leinster will have a pro12 final without a European final the week before, so all the focus (and spending power) of the fans will be focused on the league this year and there will be a two week lead in to the final (if Leinster were to make it) in which to sell tickets. If it was against Ulster or Munster were to make it and no longer have European interests, it would make it even more likely to sell out.

I'd love to see the Pro12 final be given the big day treatment it deserves beyond smaller stadia.

I think it should be in the aviva if Leinster get there. The AP and Top 14 finals are held in the national stadiums. They make a proper occasion of it.

Leinster still have to get there tho but it should be considered only after the semi's take place.

danthefan

I think the league decide the venue for the final so they could try have it in Lansdowne, the only problem would be the short notice, only a couple of weeks to try sell a stadium full of tickets.

neilmulvey

danthefan wrote: »

I think the league decide the venue for the final so they could try have it in Lansdowne, the only problem would be the short notice, only a couple of weeks to try sell a stadium full of tickets.

the top ranked team get to decide. Ulster chose the RDS last year against Leinster.

If Leinster are in it against another irish side and are the top ranked team then it should be in the aviva. I dont see a problem selling enough tickets to make it a success in two weeks.

Not sure what glasgow will do if they are in the final as the top ranked team.

[Jackass]

Glasgow would have to move it either to Murrayfield (which is only about an hour on the train) or they could try and play it in Hampden Park, although it may or may not still be under redevelopment for the common wealth games ... if that's the case, they would have the quite divisive decision on whether to ask for it to be played at Ibrox or Celtic Park

If Hampden isn't available I'd say it would be in Murrayfield.

I think 2 weeks would be plenty of time to sell out Aviva if we got to host it, especially if it was against another Irish team.

On a side note, Leinster average attendance is 19,824 so far this season (League only, not including Heineken Cup games). Another Aviva sell out would bring that well above the 20,000 mark.

neilmulvey

[Jackass] wrote: »

Glasgow would have to move it either to Murrayfield (which is only about an hour on the train) or they could try and play it in Hampden Park, although it may or may not still be under redevelopment for the common wealth games ... if that's the case, they would have the quite divisive decision on whether to ask for it to be played at Ibrox or Celtic Park

If Hampden isn't available I'd say it would be in Murrayfield.

I think 2 weeks would be plenty of time to sell out Aviva if we got to host it, especially if it was against another Irish team.

On a side note, Leinster average attendance is 19,824 so far this season (League only, not including Heineken Cup games). Another Aviva sell out would bring that well above the 20,000 mark.

I think the scottish cup final is in Parkhead because Hampden is out of commission. Not sure if that is a viable option.

Is Murrayfield not having a plastic-y type pitch laid - in spring 2014 in time for next season ......

http://www.scottishrugby.org/news/14/02/04/new-hybrid-grass-pitch-be-constructed-murrayfield


Maybe Rangers will help them out as they need the money.

Cookiemunster

neilmulvey wrote: »

I think the scottish cup final is in Parkhead because Hampden is out of commission. Not sure if that is a viable option.

Is Murrayfield not having a plastic-y type pitch laid - in spring 2014 in time for next season ......

http://www.scottishrugby.org/news/14/02/04/new-hybrid-grass-pitch-be-constructed-murrayfield


Maybe Rangers will help them out as they need the money.

Correct. Hampden is being turned into an athletics stadium for the Commonwealth games and the pitch at Murrayfield has been ripped up due to a parasitic worm infestation. Edinburgh have to play their last home game at a different ground.

desertcircus

I think I remember this coming up in the past and an IRFU representative mentioning that it usually takes about six weeks to sell enough tickets for the Aviva. If it ends up being Leinster/Munster, then they might take the chance and push it hard. I'd like to see the operating costs of the Aviva versus the RDS - presumably, there's a minimum number of tickets they'd need to sell for an Aviva final to be as profitable as an RDS sellout, and I'd suspect it'd be several thousand past the 18k in the RDS. Unless they can realistically sell at least thirty thousand, it's probably not worth it.

awec

If it's an inter-pro final they could sell enough tickets for sure.

CatFromHue

Isn't renting the Aviva about 450-500K?

Have to say though the RDS is our home ground and I'm more than happy for Leinster to play a home interpro playoff or final there.

legendary.xix

It'll be great to see the Pro 12 get to a level where the final is played in the national stadium of the higher seeded finalist.

bilston

The first few Premiership finals were played in front of a half full Twickenham but it has grown year on year, hopefully the same will happen with the Pro 12. An all Ireland final (even if Connacht were playing IMO),would sell out 50k tickets easily enough but I can't see any of the other sides managing to pull it off. Hopefully Glasgow can contonue to improve and build their support because while Glasgow is obviously a football city I reckon they have huge support potential similar to Leinster as Glasgow and Dublin are roughly the same size although obviously there is more to Leinster than Dublin!