WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

icesnowfrost

So quiet anyways the north and maybe some parts of the east coast might have some sleet/snow showers over the next 24hrs

mickger844posts

icesnowfrost wrote: »

So quiet anyways the north and maybe some parts of the east coast might have some sleet/snow showers over the next 24hrs

Quiet for sure but probably because the models have High Pressure dominating for the foreseeable future. Hard frosts probably the thing of most interest.

Super hoop

Very cold and windy here in East meath. Dark sky over head and we had a small sleet shower about 30 mins ago.

Elmer Blooker

mickger844posts wrote: »

Quiet for sure but probably because the models have High Pressure dominating for the foreseeable future. Hard frosts probably the thing of most interest.

I doubt if we will even get hard frosts as the high sits on top of us and stagnates, anticyclonic gloom here we come.
It's my least favourite weather, I wouldn't even call it weather, I hate it, I would prefer a mobile 14c sw'ly.
It's going to get very very quiet around here

Cogsy88

Anybody know what's wrong with the UKMO??

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I doubt if we will even get hard frosts as the high sits on top of us and stagnates, anticyclonic gloom here we come.
It's my least favourite weather, I wouldn't even call it weather, I hate it, I would prefer a mobile 14c sw'ly.
It's going to get very very quiet around here

Better than a raging Atlantic any day of the week ,

Id happily take this upcoming spell of weather , the long game begins now :cool:

Elmer Blooker

Here's a morale booster! (no, not a chart for next week)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119621127.gif

Cogsy88

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Here's a morale booster! (no, not a chart for next week)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119621127.gif

A quite Atlantic is a good start I suppose.

ninebeanrows

Quite an amazing piece of research here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

Now I do not know how scientifically rigorous the technique is and it appears overly simple but the results over the last 30 years speak for themselves.

It basically is a correlation between the October Snow Pattern over EuroAsia and the coming winter's Arctic Oscillation.

Now we all know that AO positive winters tend to lead to more zonal conditions across Ireland leading to average or mild conditions with unsettled weather. While AO negative winters lend to more cold outbreaks from the Arctic and are correlated to a negative NAO winters.

This statistical analysis poses that the winter (DJF) AO index can be easily predicted by the end of October using the October Pattern Index. The accuracy over the previus 30 years is as high as 90% while the last 10 years has been accurate to 97%.

The bad news is, if the OPI is correct, this winter will be dominated by a strongly positive AO which would tend to enhance the prospects of a zonal rather mild winter for Ireland. However the AO in a positive phase does not necessarily mean blow torch warmth all winter, but it is a key ingredient to exceptionally cold winters.

Very interesting research.

icesnowfrost

Looks like we will stay in a north to north east flow for a few more weeks. At least it's cold and not mild muck. December will be interesting

patneve2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Quite an amazing piece of research here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

Now I do not know how scientifically rigorous the technique is and it appears overly simple but the results over the last 30 years speak for themselves.

It basically is a correlation between the October Snow Pattern over EuroAsia and the coming winter's Arctic Oscillation.

Now we all know that AO positive winters tend to lead to more zonal conditions across Ireland leading to average or mild conditions with unsettled weather. While AO negative winters lend to more cold outbreaks from the Arctic and are correlated to a negative NAO winters.

This statistical analysis poses that the winter (DJF) AO index can be easily predicted by the end of October using the October Pattern Index. The accuracy over the previus 30 years is as high as 90% while the last 10 years has been accurate to 97%.

The bad news is, if the OPI is correct, this winter will be dominated by a strongly positive AO which would tend to enhance the prospects of a zonal rather mild winter for Ireland. However the AO in a positive phase does not necessarily mean blow torch warmth all winter, but it is a key ingredient to exceptionally cold winters.

Very interesting research.

Have read into the OPI research myself and as you said this year's result does do not bode well for potential Greenland Highs. I fear that our only chance this winter will come from a Scandi-Russian High.

However, it is also important to state that the OPI can only correctly find the average AO of an entire winter season, meaning that a period of moderately negative AO isn't completely off the cards.

Anyways, I stick to what I said a few weeks ago, periods of very cold weather in Greece, Balkans, Eastern Europe and as far as Italy this winter.

dopolahpec

Unfortunately we suddenly seem to be a long way from a significant cold outbreak all of a sudden. There is nothing but scraps in the model output, and it's all a long way from some of the fantastic runs we saw last week (many of which were well supported by ensembles). This morning's GFS has the stubborn high pressure in our vicinity in 8 days time with low pressure over Greenland and Scandinavia, the ECM paints a similar picture as far out as 10 days. Hoping for a reboot.

leahyl

dopolahpec wrote: »

Unfortunately we suddenly seem to be a long way from a significant cold outbreak all of a sudden. There is nothing but scraps in the model output, and it's all a long way from some of the fantastic runs we saw last week (many of which were well supported by ensembles). This morning's GFS has the stubborn high pressure in our vicinity in 8 days time with low pressure over Greenland and Scandinavia, the ECM paints a similar picture as far out as 10 days. Hoping for a reboot.

so frustrating! Hoping for a mad change in the models!

Iancar29

A trip to Fairbanks anyone? :pac::pac::rolleyes:

Tiler Durden

dopolahpec wrote: »

This morning's GFS has the stubborn high pressure in our vicinity in 8 days time

And what would that bring us?

tylercollins

Iancar29 wrote: »

A trip to Fairbanks anyone? :pac::pac::rolleyes:

What time's the flights?

Gonzo

leahyl wrote: »

so frustrating! Hoping for a mad change in the models!

im going for a mad change in the models, didnt the recent 24-hour cold snap only got picked up in the models about 5/6 days before it happened along with a whole run of promising events after that. As long as the atlantic doesnt come roaring back at us for months on end then im remaining hopefully for a few snowy days after christmas has passed.

Strangegravy

dopolahpec wrote: »

Unfortunately we suddenly seem to be a long way from a significant cold outbreak all of a sudden. There is nothing but scraps in the model output, and it's all a long way from some of the fantastic runs we saw last week (many of which were well supported by ensembles). This morning's GFS has the stubborn high pressure in our vicinity in 8 days time with low pressure over Greenland and Scandinavia, the ECM paints a similar picture as far out as 10 days. Hoping for a reboot.

If something interesting is happening around 120hrs-144hrs it has potential (5-6 days out). Anything after that is nearly always guaranteed to change each run.

I know it's hard to, but for the sake of a snow bunnies sanity, disregard anything after that as FI, whether it's good or bad, as it's most likely not going to happen either way! :-)

leahyl

Gonzo wrote: »

im going for a mad change in the models, didnt the recent 24-hour cold snap only got picked up in the models about 5/6 days before it happened along with a whole run of promising events after that. As long as the atlantic doesnt come roaring back at us for months on end then im remaining hopefully for a few snowy days after christmas has passed.

Here Here!

fr wishy washy

Went through my first snow shower on the N81 at 5.30 this evening.:D

dopolahpec

The 0Z GFS shows some cold in FI again this morning, and the ECM is hinting at a northerly. Not much to suggest an evolution of deep and prolonged cold, but definitely better than yesterday's output. The GFS 06z is starting to roll out now, I wonder will it maintain the theme or back away from it?

Villain

dopolahpec wrote: »

The 0Z GFS shows some cold in FI again this morning, and the ECM is hinting at a northerly. Not much to suggest an evolution of deep and prolonged cold, but definitely better than yesterday's output. The GFS 06z is starting to roll out now, I wonder will it maintain the theme or back away from it?

Ya the cold was coming from a NW feed though which is useless for Snow but better than previous runs for sure.

icesnowfrost

A nice crisp frosty morning in Drogheda.

Any snow spotted around the Sally Gap or Kippure?

Villain

End of FI on 06z is much nicer but as usual too far away!

maquiladora

Tentative signs for the past few days that the first week of December might produce something interesting.

Tabnabs

Dónal wrote: »

Any snow spotted around the Sally Gap or Kippure?

Nothing noticeable on the northern side of Kippure.

hawkwing

Winter is in Iceland now not surprisingly--some great webcams on this site,the roads look decent too-wherever they lead to.. http://www.extremeiceland.is/en/webcams-of-iceland/north-east-corner-road-conditions

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

Tentative signs for the past few days that the first week of December might produce something interesting.

Here we go again! :pac:

Iancar29

leahyl wrote: »

Here we go again! :pac:

You do know that does not include Cork right? ;)