WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Musicman2000

Reading Mt's forecast today unless you are on a mountain in the North of the country it doesn't look like much of a cold snap

dopolahpec

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Reading Mt's forecast today unless you are on a mountain in the North of the country it doesn't look like much of a cold snap

It's easy to get caught up in believing the models. Reading through this thread though it is clear to see most people are pragmatic enough to know that what they are commenting on is a computer generated projection of probable weather based upon all sorts of calculations, there's not so much forecasting going on.

Me for instance, I just like to comment on the models, I'll say things like GFS still showing the northerly at 240 hours. Do I believe there will be a northerly in 240 hours? Am I forecasting a northerly in 240 hours? Who knows, who cares...but the GFS is showing a northerly on its 6z run for 240 hours time. More skilled people than me forecast.

Watching models is fun, believing in all the exciting stuff at 240 hours is an extremely painful pastime. There's a forum in the UK netweather, a lot of people here also read it. Every year psychosis sits in. People take it personally when scenarios don't evolve from their pet model. You also get other people who seem to think they can actually talk a certain weather type into existence with optimistic barney..ha

hatrickpatrick

dopolahpec wrote: »

There's a forum in the UK netweather, a lot of people here also read it. Every year psychosis sits in. People take it personally when scenarios don't evolve from their pet model. You also get other people who seem to think they can actually talk a certain weather type into existence with optimistic barney..ha

You talk as of that kind of tomfoolery doesn't happen here on a daily basis

omicron

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

You talk as of that kind of tomfoolery doesn't happen here on a daily basis

The model threads on netweather in winter are a thousand times worse than anything you'll ever see here!!!

rickdangerouss

When Model agreement happens and we have chats like that -96hrs, I will buy a husky and start praying again to Khione.

Netweather, if you stay there to long, well... you could end up like that.



Stay with us this weather and you will be like that

dopolahpec

I always rate the days just after Christmas as PRIME for a cold snap, we are well away from that yet, and I have to say I'm becoming cautiously optimistic it could potentially happen. I like the look of this northerly on the models too, if it came off as projected it looks like it has some bite, the flow is from deep in the coldest polar regions, and it is late in the year. I would say the north, northwest could see lots of snow. Places like Sligo, Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo and Roscommon in particular could get beefy showers.

rickdangerouss

I understand, this is based on the ECMWF and the DMI. Iceland is colder than normal for this time of year, next tuesday. Winds are swanning around, look to be heading for us.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/elements/#type=temp

That might help. -22C

Norway models are also giving us a cold few days.

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Dublin/long.html

dexter647

The Gfs 12z is not good at all:mad:

dopolahpec

dexter647 wrote: »

The Gfs 12z is not good at all:mad:

Pfft and the projected northerly is suddenly a weak stream of p#ss.

Clonmel1000

Back to a bit of realism nice mild day today up around 10 degrees weather for the weekend nice and benign no sign of anything major.....just saying
Winter has been typical enough so far thank God following a pattern of Irish winters save for a few exceptions.

dopolahpec

ECM what can I say. Lovely northerly....


For sicily

rickdangerouss

maquiladora wrote: »

The past two GFS op runs have been very much on the colder side, if not the coldest of all the ensembles, so I'd take those FI charts with an even bigger pinch of salt than usual.

And the prize goes to maquiladora, again. I do not like when you win.

mike65

Its a high pressure winter baby, just not in the right place for snow and proper cold lovers.

dexter647

mike65 wrote: »

Its a high pressure winter baby, just not in the right place for snow and proper cold lovers.

It is looking like that indeed atm mike65 but then again as we all know winter proper doesn't start till Sunday so early days yet;)

Birdnuts

mike65 wrote: »

Its a high pressure winter baby, just not in the right place for snow and proper cold lovers.

This long spell of nothingness reminds me very much of winter 2011/12. Mild,cloudy, dull and very forgettable.

rickdangerouss

Birdnuts wrote: »

This long spell of nothingness reminds me very much of winter 2011/12. Mild,cloudy, dull and very forgettable.

That is ok, no two winters are the same. One run at a time.

Any chance of more images being posted when commenting on new runs?

hatrickpatrick

Deleted User wrote: »

Any chance of more images being posted when commenting on new runs?

Post 'em yourself ye lazy gobsh!te!

Here's the latest GFS as of right now, 6z 96h (the model is still being rolled out so check back in half an hour or so for the rest of it)

You've hot high pressure over Greenland itself, but as far as I know in order for it to be a "block" it has to be a bit more to the south, and it has to be almost completely stationary? I'm unfamiliar with how blocking works so if someone else feels like explaining it and whether or not these highs over Greenland actually count as Greenland Blocks that'd be great

patneve2

GFS 06Z back on track for a decent cold snap from the North-North West. Not getting my hopes up or anything, just hoping that this endless string of overcast boring weather will soon come to an end.

BLIZZARD7

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS 06Z back on track for a decent cold snap from the North-North West. Not getting my hopes up or anything, just hoping that this endless string of overcast boring weather will soon come to an end.

The 0z ECM also has very low uppers pouring down over the country, pressure seems a tad high for any decent convection though. Also we need the whole pattern to shift west by a few hundred miles. Interesting model output at the moment.




Dan

Harps

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Post 'em yourself ye lazy gobsh!te!

Here's the latest GFS as of right now, 6z 96h (the model is still being rolled out so check back in half an hour or so for the rest of it)

You've hot high pressure over Greenland itself, but as far as I know in order for it to be a "block" it has to be a bit more to the south, and it has to be almost completely stationary? I'm unfamiliar with how blocking works so if someone else feels like explaining it and whether or not these highs over Greenland actually count as Greenland Blocks that'd be great

The pressure over Greenland in that chart is just shallow high pressure at the surface, you want the yellow & red colours to extend into Greenland for a deeper high level block.

Looks like a decent chance of a northerly next week but something that often happens with these is they get shifted further east closer to the date which would leave Ireland under high pressure with Scotland and the North Sea getting most of the showers. Interesting to keep watch on anyway

hatrickpatrick

Harps wrote: »

The pressure over Greenland in that chart is just shallow high pressure at the surface, you want the yellow & red colours to extend into Greenland for a deeper high level block.

Just when I thought I had these figured out

Have to ask then, what's the difference between the pressure as defined by the numbers of the isobars, and the pressure as defined by the colour of various parts of the chart?
What I'd been looking out for in terms of Greenland was dark blue areas with +1005 in the isobar chart...

talkabout

The GFS 06Z is a big improvement and the ensembles are not looking bad for next Friday, particularly in the Northwest. Long way out, but i've a feeling this might be a goer.

Harps

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Just when I thought I had these figured out

Have to ask then, what's the difference between the pressure as defined by the numbers of the isobars, and the pressure as defined by the colour of various parts of the chart?
What I'd been looking out for in terms of Greenland was dark blue areas with +1005 in the isobar chart...

The isobars are showing the pressure at the surface, the colours show the distance between the 1000 and 500hPa pressure levels. The bigger the distance is, the higher up into the atmosphere the high pressure extends and the more likely it is to disrupt the flow and create a block. For a good block you'd want around 1025hPa upwards and a yellow colour.

Here's one from Dec 2010 with the whole Atlantic blocked and a proper Arctic blast headed straight for us

hatrickpatrick

Harps wrote: »

The isobars are showing the pressure at the surface, the colours show the distance between the 1000 and 500hPa pressure levels. The bigger the distance is, the higher up into the atmosphere the high pressure extends and the more likely it is to disrupt the flow and create a block. For a good block you'd want around 1025hPa upwards and a yellow colour.

Here's one from Dec 2010 with the whole Atlantic blocked and a proper Arctic blast headed straight for us

Ah, thanks for clearing that up! Very helpful

Also, MFW looking at that chart:

dopolahpec

Looks like a cold northerly is the form horse for Dec 6th/7th again after yesterday's wobble. 12z ECM looking like a big upgrade to these eyes. Cold plunge much further west.

dopolahpec

Cracking stuff on the ECM. A huge upgrade. Can't post charts but cold floods across Ireland between 144 and 168 hours. We even see -14 uppers licking Northern Scotland

sean555

We seem to be in for a cold end to next week, at least according to the 12z ecm

Musicman2000

Some serious cold and snow being showing on the ECM 12Z run, Really hope this comes off and the ECM is not leading us down the garden path, I have a feeling a lot of this cold could be shunted east.

rickdangerouss

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Some serious cold and snow being showing on the ECM 12Z run, Really hope this comes off and the ECM is not leading us down the garden path, I have a feeling a lot of this cod could be shunted east

Agree with Simon and Musicman, this northern blast could get watered down and moved to the east over the next week.

I would go for colder two weeks, fog and cold nights.