WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

mickger844posts

ECM 12z a great run at 144hrs and for a few days but we've been here before. Maybe at 72 or 96hrs i will start to buy into this. The current dry spell has been good for some reasons but weather watching wise its been a bore. Hopefully next week will bring something more interesting. My gut feeling tells me it will

patneve2

Not sure what to make of the potential cold snap. On one hand, it is quite rare to get uppers lower than -10 tracking down the North Atlantic Ocean, so if the flow is anyways unstable it looks like there could be very heavy snow and graupel showers in Ulster and Connaught. However, it has to be said that the recent tendency has been to shift these cold spells further East, so it is possible that we'll end up with a sterile cold snap with limited precipitation. In any case we should get some seasonal weather with blue skies and frost...

derekon

I am very surprised at Met Eireann issuing the following forecast at 11.48am this morning. I thought they would be a lot more responsible than this?

Met Eireann Forecast, 11.48am on Sat 30/11/2013

However, by Thursday morning, southwesterly winds will strengthen, and rain arriving in the northwest will spread quickly to all parts of the country, possibly turning heavy in places. By Thursday evening, the rain will clear to showers, and blustery northwest winds will set in. It will turn very cold and the showers will become wintry in the north and over higher ground anywhere. These very cold and windy conditions will persist until Saturday next with further showers, many falling as sleet or snow, and perhaps giving significant accumulations at lower as well as higher levels. However, after next Saturday, the trend will be for milder and much less breezy conditions to return.

D

maquiladora

derekon wrote: »

I am very surprised at Met Eireann issuing the following forecast at 11.48am this morning. I thought they would be a lot more responsible than this?

Met Eireann Forecast, 11.48am on Sat 30/11/2013

However, by Thursday morning, southwesterly winds will strengthen, and rain arriving in the northwest will spread quickly to all parts of the country, possibly turning heavy in places. By Thursday evening, the rain will clear to showers, and blustery northwest winds will set in. It will turn very cold and the showers will become wintry in the north and over higher ground anywhere. These very cold and windy conditions will persist until Saturday next with further showers, many falling as sleet or snow, and perhaps giving significant accumulations at lower as well as higher levels. However, after next Saturday, the trend will be for milder and much less breezy conditions to return.

D

It's best to look at the outlook forecast as a human interpretation of what the ECM is currently showing. If the model changes, then that outlook will change too. It's the way it's always been. And like any forecast beyond a couple of days, you have to expect changes.

derekon

maquiladora wrote: »

It's best to look at the outlook forecast as a human interpretation of what the ECM is currently showing. If the model changes, then that outlook will change too. It's the way it's always been. And like any forecast beyond a couple of days, you have to expect changes.

That is a fair point however given the hysteria around snow in this country, I just don't see the point in mentioning it now as we all know its probably unlikely we will get any snow to lower levels, the 12z ECM published later will show a major downgrade and the proper cold will be shunted east in a line from Sweden down to Italy/Greece

D

maquiladora

derekon wrote: »

That is a fair point however given the hysteria around snow in this country, I just don't see the point in mentioning it now as we all know its probably unlikely we will get any snow to lower levels, the 12z ECM published later will show a major downgrade and the proper cold will be shunted east in a line from Sweden down to Italy/Greece

D

Well the ECM has shown something similar over the past few runs, it might be right, it is the best model in the world afterall. I still think we'll probably end up with something not quite as impressive, but even a watered down version could still produce snow showers at low levels in the north.

Whatever happens, it doesn't look like it has a hope of lasting more than a couple of days anyway, so hopefully we do get something a bit interesting out of it.

sean555

ECM 12 z continues the theme of cold for next Thursday,Friday and Saturday. Shortlived maybe but still -8 uppers.

derekon

sean555 wrote: »

ECM 12 z continues the theme of cold for next Thursday,Friday and Saturday. Shortlived maybe but still -8 uppers.

True, but the powerful Atlantic will come raging back with its mild mucky air sweeping away all that cold in a line from the east of Spain through to the east of Sweden!

Any hoped for prolonged cold spell still not on the horizon.

D

maquiladora

sean555 wrote: »

ECM 12 z continues the theme of cold for next Thursday,Friday and Saturday. Shortlived maybe but still -8 uppers.

Not much in terms of snow potential for us on that run compared to the last one though. High pressure pushing over us. It's still good if you like cold just for the sake of cold though.

Weathering

Posted on Netweather

SOME VERY IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE USA!!!

To put to bed the GFS 12hrs run, it has already been ditched by NOAA as early as T 72hrs for the key area downstream in which the GFS operational run develops the shortwave and runs it quickly east.

TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD CAUSE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA TO DROP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS RULES OUT THE
12Z GFS/12Z NAM AND 09Z SREF/06Z GEFS MEANS FROM CONSIDERATION.
THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED
NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN IN ITS VICINITY.

To add to this the pattern should evolve as follows:

GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO LIFT SOME ENERGY INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON
TUESDAY...THEN HAVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REGENERATE A
SECONDARY...AND MORE INTENSE WAVE THAT EXITS EAST CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY.

And finally the best news if it verifies:

A 40/40 INCLUSION OF THE 30/00Z GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WILL COVER
MUCH OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...WITH THE ASPECTS OF A ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC VIEWPOINT COVERING THE WAVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

The GFS is too fast and too flat, and has very little chance if any of verifying.

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

Not much in terms of snow potential for us on that run compared to the last one though. High pressure pushing over us. It's still good if you like cold just for the sake of cold though.

Plenty of snow potential for us in the NW

maquiladora

Weathering wrote: »

Plenty of snow potential for us in the NW

On the latest ECM, it would only be very light precipitation from Thursday night onwards, turning bone dry by the weekend.

fryup

our we officially in a state of drought??

sean555

GFS now following ECM with cold for at Thursday, Friday and Saturday next, cold and dry still the theme for those days.

Joe Public

According to Ken, there is nothing of note for the winter ahead with the best possibility of snow after mid February and another cold spring to follow.

Listen here:-

http://www.rosfm.ie/wp-content/uploa...ng-2013-14.mp3

Kippure

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

rickdangerouss

Kippure wrote: »

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

We will see, If the UK gets a colder winter, Ireland could still be on the mild side.

sean555

Good chance of the NW seeing some snow at the end of this week, if GFS 6Z is to be believed.

maquiladora

rickdangerouss wrote: »

We will see, If the UK gets a colder winter, Ireland could still be on the mild side.

I don't think we'll be on the "mild" side, probably less cold but still quite cold. It does look like we will be on the drier side though with higher pressure pushing in from the west reducing precipitation after Thursday. Still time for further changes too.

maquiladora

Looking cold and frosty for central/eastern parts Friday/Saturday with maxium daytime temps only about a degree above freezing, on the latest GFS.

Surprised theres not more posts on here.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Looking cold and frosty for central/eastern parts Friday/Saturday with maxium daytime temps only about a degree above freezing, on the latest GFS.

Surprised theres not more posts on here.

Ah here Maq, its a week away like !!

But that is cooooold looking

ZX7R

maquiladora wrote: »

Looking cold and frosty for central/eastern parts Friday/Saturday with maxium daytime temps only about a degree above freezing, on the latest GFS.

Surprised theres not more posts on here.

i would say most want to here its going to snow mag ,some nice charts this morning looks cold next weekend. good job the esb wont be on strick

Tom Cruises Left Nut

ZX7R wrote: »

i would say most want to here its going to snow mag ,some nice charts this morning looks cold next weekend. good job the esb wont be on strick

Here is a straw to clutch !

maquiladora

ZX7R wrote: »

i would say most want to here its going to snow mag ,some nice charts this morning looks cold next weekend. good job the esb wont be on strick

I think theres still snow shower potential for late Thursday /early Friday as long as the high doesnt push any further over us by the time we get there, but yeah certainly not as much snow potential as the ECM was showing up until recently.

Next thing to look out for is to see if we can get a Scandi high after this.

ZX7R

nice chart liam
i be happy with clear frosty weather sick of his dull weather at the moment

Iancar29

Nice to see the GFS more similar to the ECM today .

Not a bad start to winter with -10 850s forecasted for most of the country and -11 in parts too .


Chilly yes but snowy? .... Northern coasts once again will see showers turning increasingly wintry from thursday afternoon/evening.

It'll be nice to watch the UKMO fax charts over the next few nights to watch for embedded fronts.

As Maq says we want that high pressure to the west to back off a bit as to give any potential showers more of a chance .

jamo2oo9

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

Ah here Maq, its a week away like !!

But that is cooooold looking

That type of chart has been like that for a while now, would it be safe to assume that snow could be on the way?

maquiladora

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

That type of chart has been like that for a while now, would it be safe to assume that snow could be on the way?

That air is certainly cold enough for snow but you need more than just cold air to produce snow. There needs to be a low pressure feature or instability to produce precipitation.

lapua20grain

maquiladora wrote: »

That air is certainly cold enough for snow but you need more than just cold air to produce snow. There needs to be a low pressure feature or instability to produce precipitation.

possibility of irish sea streamers?

maquiladora

lapua20grain wrote: »

possibility of irish sea streamers?

Yes but not for us, its a northwesterly flow, so they would be heading to Wales and England instead.