WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

snowstorm445

The possible reversion to a Scandinavian High as some models have been suggesting seems to completely avoid Ireland, instead we may end up in a south-southwesterly airflow. Deep FI, I know, but should it happen I fear that a repeat of February 2012 may be upon us.

Some good cold weather over the coming weekend anyway, particularly if you live in the North and East where you may even see a few wintry showers! Let's bear in mind that the models have the ability to backtrack quite dramatically even in the short-term (remember that ECM from this time last year?) so I think we should wait until this spell is at least in the 72 hour timeframe.

123 LC

where on the website meteociel can you find the charts that go way out for weeks, into as far as january etc?

Gonzo

surprised RTE mentioned snow for next friday this far away, it will certainly be cold next weekend but i think we'll have to wait till mid-week before we know for certain if snow will effect Ireland, unfortunately Dublin and the east counties stand the least chance of seeing snow, will really need and easterly sourced cold snap to have proper snow.

MiNdGaM3

123 LC wrote: »

where on the website meteociel can you find the charts that go way out for weeks, into as far as january etc?

Under Modèles on the left, there are 2 CFS options.
This one gives you the daily charts for several months ahead.
This one gives you the monthly charts (anomalies and such) for several months ahead

JanuarySnowstor

Whilst the depth of cold is remarkable, next wkd really does look like a blink and you'll miss it.
Fed up of this high pressure now, if we cant have cold I much sooner wet and windy with the odd storm thrown in.
I just really hate the nothingness that these high pressures bring and it seems we are back where we started by next sunday

hatrickpatrick

^ I have to say I feel like a bit of a heretic in here, I'm rooting for snow if possible ofc, but for me it's more like "If we're not getting some snow then low pressure can feck off and leave us nice and dry"

maquiladora

0Z ECM only shows a few snow showers for Donegal Thursday night/Friday morning. Thats the extent of the snowfall for ROI on that model. Very cold though, daytime 2m temps of -5 on Fri/Sat!

sean555

12Z GFS downgrades the cold again, just like it did yesterday , be interesting to see if the ECM12Z upgrades again.

dopolahpec

sean555 wrote: »

12Z GFS downgrades the cold again, just like it did yesterday , be interesting to see if the ECM12Z upgrades again.

I think a collosal downgrade from the ECM may be on the cards tonight. UKMO has come out and the northerly is non-existent for Ireland on that model.

Gonzo

tbh dont mind the downgrades, the only thing worth having is an eastery/north-easterly event. Northerlies/north-westerlies rarely produce more than a dusting.

maquiladora

Gonzo wrote: »

tbh dont mind the downgrades, the only thing worth having is an eastery/north-easterly event. Northerlies/north-westerlies rarely produce more than a dusting.

It's true even the best model runs only had this as a 2-3 day cold snap, it was always the extent of the cold that was in question. I'm more interested in seeing if we can get a Scandi high out of this later.

Thargor

Hiked the Sally Gap and down into Glendalough today, wore a tshirt for some of it because it was just too warm, there were clouds of midges in the air, still a good bit of green on some trees, mushrooms, berries and a few wildflowers, it was like a Spring day.

sean555

ECM12Z says 24 hour cold spell

snowstorm445

The ECM is good but the cold is being shunted too far eastward. No surprise though as this nearly always happens with projected northerlies.

A brief window of opportunity for snow across the North coast and that might be it. We may have to look further down the line for any sustained cold unfortunately.

Iancar29

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

The CMC isn't always a GEM...

rickdangerouss

Too blue,

mike65

Nothing event here - looks like it'll be horrid in Scotland though.

Iancar29

18z flipping more west again by 100miles or for the 24hr cold blast , still only best for showers to be snow for certain in the north .

dopolahpec

The northerly is still there on GFS and ECM this morning but it's no great shakes for us. What happens after may be more interesting. Both GFS and now ECM look to be setting up scandanavian blocking. The ECM with a better positioned looking job with an easterly ready to go at 240 hours. Will we see this trend develop?

Larbre34

BBC weather had Ireland firmly on the milder side of the flow come Saturday, wintry gales for Scotland and north of England

maquiladora

A short and less severe cold snap looking likely now. Small chance of (a) no cold snap at all or (b) slightly colder and longer one. After that, indications pointing to a return to normal/average conditions for as far as we can see.

Gonzo

hopefully the rest of the winter doesnt continue what were going through right now! So far this autumn/winter I have only seen frost once! Im sure we've had frost more than once but it's usually gone by 9am.

This fecking cloudy damp weather is getting me down, bring on the first and snow !!!

loveisdivine

Deleted User wrote: »

This fecking cloudy damp weather is getting me down, bring on the first and snow !!!

Yes its very depressing isn't it?I actually really enjoy rain now, proper rain that is not just drizzle, at least its interesting.

Its funny cos I moved here in Sep 2009 so my first 2 winters here were snowy and super cold/fun! Now I feel tricked cos thats not how it always is!

pad199207

GFS 12z offering not much hope now to Ireland gettin in on any "cold snap" even for UK its a brief flirt. However it has deepened the Low and some quite gusty winds for parts of the British Isles. Northern Europe could be in for some nasty weather.
I wonder will the ECM cling on to its easterly...


I really want an end to this utterly boring weather!

snaps

Well I moved to Southern Poland in September, I knew the winter here would test me....And it is! We've had a week of proper winter now with temps of down to -15 at night and daytime temps of around 0 and if you've seen my pics in the weather picture section around 20cm of snow!
The first few days were honeymoon days of snow & cold, but now its started to be annoying.
We live in the Beskidy mountains on the Slovakian border in Southern Poland, with the high Tatra mountains just south of us.

The climate here is proper cold winters and warm/hot summers and some of the best weather in Poland. Only thing of note is the time zone is wrong here as its still CET and not +2hrs GMT. Its light early but dark early (Sun sets around 15.30 at moment, but before as its behind a 1750m mountain at around 14.50)

Believe it or not today is the first day im missing Irish winter weather!!

We have a brief rest period of sub zero days, but its arriving back from Thursday onwards. Nights possibly -20 and daytime temps of -10. More snow also coming due to low pressure in the Baltic sea heading South East.

icesnowfrost

Freezing cold all day in co louth. Wats the chances if snow down the glen of immal Thursday ?

Musicman2000

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Freezing cold all day in co louth. Wats the chances if snow down the glen of immal Thursday ?

Very Slim by the looks of the latest 12z runs

JanuarySnowstor

Funny how the gfs gets such a slating over on NW.
It has proven time and time this Winter to be the model to trust with the ECM simply all over the place.

The positive is all this boring mild gunk will surely be gone by Christmas!!