WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

derekon

The 12z ECM has just been released and is a further downgrade for decent cold for Ireland with -8 upper temps only flirting with the east coast this Friday.

As most of us on this board suspected, the deep cold has now been shunted further east.

However lets put this into perspective - its only the 2nd day of winter and Britain and France will only have this cold for 24 hours before the Atlantic powers back in and brings mild air further east to even Germany, after just a few days of cold.

What is interesting though is that at the end of the ECM run, there are now faint signs of a Scandi High. Dare we hope?

D

loveisdivine

loveisdivine wrote: »

Yes its very depressing isn't it?I actually really enjoy rain now, proper rain that is not just drizzle, at least its interesting.

Its funny cos I moved here in Sep 2009 so my first 2 winters here were snowy and super cold/fun! Now I feel tricked cos thats not how it always is!

Yes I enjoy a good shot of rain, I love the sound off the window at night.

This weather is what I call weatherless. It's downright depressing.

Here's hoping for a good artic blast !

fits

snaps wrote: »

Well I moved to Southern Poland in September, I knew the winter here would test me....And it is! We've had a week of proper winter now with temps of down to -15 at night and daytime temps of around 0 and if you've seen my pics in the weather picture section around 20cm of snow!
The first few days were honeymoon days of snow & cold, but now its started to be annoying.
We live in the Beskidy mountains on the Slovakian border in Southern Poland, with the high Tatra mountains just south of us.

The climate here is proper cold winters and warm/hot summers and some of the best weather in Poland. Only thing of note is the time zone is wrong here as its still CET and not +2hrs GMT. Its light early but dark early (Sun sets around 15.30 at moment, but before as its behind a 1750m mountain at around 14.50)

Believe it or not today is the first day im missing Irish winter weather!!

We have a brief rest period of sub zero days, but its arriving back from Thursday onwards. Nights possibly -20 and daytime temps of -10. More snow also coming due to low pressure in the Baltic sea heading South East.

I hear you. we have five months of it here (E Finland). There was still snow on the ground on May 1st last year. Was well and truly sick of the sight of it by then.

Irish weather is much more variable, and unpredictable and benign generally. Way prefer it. (well - the continental summer was nice) We had six weeks of dull dark weather about 2 degrees in October November.. Same every day. Low clouds and rain. And its so freaking dark here when its like that. Never thought I'd be relieved to see some snow!

derekon

fits wrote: »

I hear you. we have five months of it here (E Finland). There was still snow on the ground on May 1st last year. Was well and truly sick of the sight of it by then.

Irish weather is much more variable, and unpredictable and benign generally. Way prefer it. (well - the continental summer was nice) We had six weeks of dull dark weather about 2 degrees in October November.. Same every day. Low clouds and rain. And its so freaking dark here when its like that. Never thought I'd be relieved to see some snow!

I love a bit of snow, don't get me wrong, however following both your descriptions of the winter weather in Poland and Finland, it has suddenly hit me that Ireland's winters may not be so bad after all..........:D;)

D

dopolahpec

Increasing trend in the models of a high pressure developing over Scandanavia in about 7-10 days time. I seen it on the ECM 0Z and remained on 12z.GFS too, with some ensemble support. And JMA and GEM have similar too.


The next chapter for winter 2013/14 model watching may revolve around this.


Time to look north east

snowstorm2013

A bit of a rant but as much as I love being able to go out during the day without getting soaked or frozen, I for one could do with either a good stormy blast of wind or a few days of heavy snow. Even a few severe ground frosts would keep me happy but this weather is so boring and uneventful. Its December...lets have some typical December weather!!

Clonmel1000

Typical December weather would you mind defining that for me? mot the Xmas card scene but what we typically get in ireland

dacogawa

Anyone think there's a little chance of something white Thursday night/Friday morning ? I think there's a good chance to see a little something if it pushes a tiny bit more to the south-west... north east looks best bet at the moment

leahyl

Not liking MT's forecast this morning - temperatures could reach mid-teens by next week :eek: Not at all festive wintry weather!

Lucreto

leahyl wrote: »

Not liking MT's forecast this morning - temperatures could reach mid-teens by next week :eek: Not at all festive wintry weather!

2011 all over again

Not a good start for Winter.

pad199207

leahyl wrote: »

Not liking MT's forecast this morning - temperatures could reach mid-teens by next week :eek: Not at all festive wintry weather!

Much more interesting than this current borefest!

dopolahpec

leahyl wrote: »

Not liking MT's forecast this morning - temperatures could reach mid-teens by next week :eek: Not at all festive wintry weather!

MT has certainly become a mild ramper. I disagree with his prognosis that cold solutions are outliers currently. I see a strong potential for Scandinavian blocking. While Ireland will be on the very limit of benefiting from such a setup I think there's changes afoot that could see significant cold knocking on the door before Christmas (hello postman). While the ECM is not as good this morning the trend for a height rise north east is still present, the outcomes of this will chop and change on each run. A UK met forecaster Ian Ferguson has also made a bullish statement for the possibility of cold emerging in 10-15 day outlook on the Netweather forum with battleground synoptics in the west which I assume wouldn't be too far away from Ireland.

Tiler Durden

Gonzo wrote: »

hopefully the rest of the winter doesnt continue what were going through right now!

Driest November in sixty something years. This is very good news, long may it continue IMO.

SEPT 23 1989

a bee was flying around the flowers in my garden this morning

force eleven

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

a bee was flying around the flowers in my garden this morning

Had a couple of dopey wasps in the house over the weekend, looking for a warm place to hang out no doubt before spring.

Long range ECM no comfort for coldies this morning. Over Christmas period, low pressure in charge, rain and wind a distinct possibility. I wouldn't be so rash as to write December off yet, but we need to see significant changes in the long term output across the board soon.

Harps

If we're not set for anything interesting in terms of cold weather then I'll gladly take a mild and dry run up to Christmas, had enough of 'cold' 3-5C days throughout last winter and Spring so some unseasonal warmth will do nicely, plenty of time for some real cold weather later

Rebelbrowser

[quote="force eleven;87815136"

Long range ECM no comfort for coldies this morning. Over Christmas period, low pressure in charge, rain and wind .[/quote]

where are you seeing the long term ecm ? thought us plebs only get as far out as 10 days....

Musicman2000

force eleven wrote: »

Had a couple of dopey wasps in the house over the weekend, looking for a warm place to hang out no doubt before spring.

Long range ECM no comfort for coldies this morning. Over Christmas period, low pressure in charge, rain and wind a distinct possibility. I wouldn't be so rash as to write December off yet, but we need to see significant changes in the long term output across the board soon.

Have you charts to back this up? Latest ECM 32 day update wouldn't agree with you , It has blocking to our North East over Scandi , this would normally mean a cold easterly flow. Its by no means set in concrete but positive for people looking for cold.

average_runner

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Have you charts to back this up? Latest ECM 32 day update wouldn't agree with you , It has blocking to our North East over Scandi , this would normally mean a cold easterly flow. Its by no means set in concrete but positive for people looking for cold.

ECM is about as reliable as LADA!!!

ninebeanrows

Maybe a wind warning thread should be created.

Going to be pretty wild for a time over the northern half of the country early Thursday.

Real potential for a widespread swathe of gusts from 100-120km/hr, with a few gusts in exposed coasts to higher levels.

Iancar29

Weathercheck wrote: »

Maybe a wind warning thread should be created.

Going to be pretty wild for a time over the northern half of the country early Thursday.

Real potential for a widespread swathe of gusts from 100-120km/hr, with a few gusts in exposed coasts to higher levels.

True , could get quite bad but will pass through quite quickly .

Isle of SKye looks to get a right oul breeze!

Thargor

Thargor wrote: »

Hiked the Sally Gap and down into Glendalough today, wore a tshirt for some of it because it was just too warm, there were clouds of midges in the air, still a good bit of green on some trees, mushrooms, berries and a few wildflowers, it was like a Spring day.

Wildlife is proving amazingly resilient this year. I have a feeling it's down to the odd "double summer", apples and the like were falling off the trees halfway through the summer then there was a second attempt with the second warm spell.

Gonzo wrote: »

hopefully the rest of the winter doesnt continue what were going through right now! So far this autumn/winter I have only seen frost once! Im sure we've had frost more than once but it's usually gone by 9am.

Incredible how localised things can be, we've had at least 5 proper hard frosts in Dundalk and probably another 10 light ones.

derekon

The 12z ECM is a veritable horror story for any cold fans here in Ireland. The arctic plunge due on Friday looks like it will narrowly miss Ireland (latest projections showing it starting right on the Irish Sea towards Wales!!).

After that, it looks mild all the way.

Maybe MT will be right in his forecast for a mild, wet and windy Christmas Day with temps of 13-15oC, the mere thought of which drives me to drink!! :D

D

compsys

derekon wrote: »

The 12z ECM is a veritable horror story for any cold fans here in Ireland. The arctic plunge due on Friday looks like it will narrowly miss Ireland (latest projections showing it starting right on the Irish Sea towards Wales!!).

After that, it looks mild all the way.

Maybe MT will be right in his forecast for a mild, wet and windy Christmas Day with temps of 13-15oC, the mere thought of which drives me to drink!! :D

D

Practically the entire continent looks like it's going to see a very mild December - not just the UK and Ireland. Mid-term there isn't ever -4 uppers to be seen over most of Europe and Scandinavia.

derekon

compsys wrote: »

Practically the entire continent looks like it's going to see a very mild December - not just the UK and Ireland. Mid-term there isn't ever -4 uppers to be seen over most of Europe and Scandinavia.

Point taken Compsys, my post was rather Ireland-centric

Yes, I do remember back on Xmas Day 2011, the temperature in Dublin was around 12oC if memory serves me correct. However to put this in context, Stockholm, Sweden came in at a very mild 10oC!!

So we might be in for a mild December, we will see. That has its advantages too I suppose.

D

M.T. Cranium

derekon wrote: »

The 12z ECM is a veritable horror story for any cold fans here in Ireland. The arctic plunge due on Friday looks like it will narrowly miss Ireland (latest projections showing it starting right on the Irish Sea towards Wales!!).

After that, it looks mild all the way.

Maybe MT will be right in his forecast for a mild, wet and windy Christmas Day with temps of 13-15oC, the mere thought of which drives me to drink!! :D

D

For the sake of accuracy here, my LRF does not say that Christmas Day would be wet and windy, just that the month and in particular the mid-month period would be very mild and have some wet and windy spells. We did have a discussion about Christmas Day being near the peak of a very mild signal in the research output and there were various posts made about heading for the beach, bar-be-que Christmas etc, but all I said was very mild.

As I've recently posted on NW, the current pattern holds one ray of hope for winter weather seekers, which is that a reload in early January would be more likely to dig in further south and allow for a Scandinavian high. If there is to be one really decent spell of wintry weather this season I feel it will come in the period 1-20 Jan and most likely 8-12 Jan for more precise timing.

As always, these are research model outputs based on a large volume of past data and part of an ongoing project. Verification so far since the forecast was issued in early October has been fairly good, November was indicated to turn colder which it did, and December was indicated to be mostly quite mild, which is what the current models are suggesting. So I once again take gentle exception to those who always say there's no possible way etc etc, I am finding possible ways and feel that I am some distance along the long and winding road towards eventual success with this project. If not, I would welcome an indication of what I should have said about December that I didn't say, because perception is a big part of this LRF challenge.

maquiladora

compsys wrote: »

Practically the entire continent looks like it's going to see a very mild December - not just the UK and Ireland. Mid-term there isn't ever -4 uppers to be seen over most of Europe and Scandinavia.

It's only the 3rd day of the month, a bit early to judge what will actually happen on based a model that only goes out 10 days and has already totally failed with the phantom cold spell at an even shorter timeframe.

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

For the sake of accuracy here, my LRF does not say that Christmas Day would be wet and windy, just that the month and in particular the mid-month period would be very mild and have some wet and windy spells. We did have a discussion about Christmas Day being near the peak of a very mild signal in the research output and there were various posts made about heading for the beach, bar-be-que Christmas etc, but all I said was very mild.

As I've recently posted on NW, the current pattern holds one ray of hope for winter weather seekers, which is that a reload in early January would be more likely to dig in further south and allow for a Scandinavian high. If there is to be one really decent spell of wintry weather this season I feel it will come in the period 1-20 Jan and most likely 8-12 Jan for more precise timing.

As always, these are research model outputs based on a large volume of past data and part of an ongoing project. Verification so far since the forecast was issued in early October has been fairly good, November was indicated to turn colder which it did, and December was indicated to be mostly quite mild, which is what the current models are suggesting. So I once again take gentle exception to those who always say there's no possible way etc etc, I am finding possible ways and feel that I am some distance along the long and winding road towards eventual success with this project. If not, I would welcome an indication of what I should have said about December that I didn't say, because perception is a big part of this LRF challenge.

Thanks for the update MT and apologies, I must have read your Winter LRF somewhat incorrectly.

So its fair to say that Ireland could see a bit of snow in the 2nd or 3rd week of January 2014 based on your current project?

You might wish to give some hope to us coldies here on boards.ie as I know your past forecasts have been excellent. We are just looking for a wee bit of hope!! If the wife asks me once more if there is snow on the way, I will lose my reason (she is listening to colleagues at work talking about this winter being the worst in years, there is no telling her!!)

D

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

It's only the 3rd day of the month, a bit early to judge what will actually happen on based a model that only goes out 10 days and has already totally failed with the phantom cold spell at an even shorter timeframe.

Exactly Maq, after all it is only the 3rd of December. It's ludicrous for any one to dismiss the whole month at this early stage or to proclaim with certainty how it will pan out

compsys

maquiladora wrote: »

It's only the 3rd day of the month, a bit early to judge what will actually happen on based a model that only goes out 10 days and has already totally failed with the phantom cold spell at an even shorter timeframe.

I wasn't quite dismissing the entire month - only pointing out the trend of the models (I was looking at the GFS charts too which go well beyond 10 days).

What's notable is that there's no cold building anywhere on the models (apart from this weekend). If there was a rack of cold a few hundred miles to the East of us you could claim there's potential for it shunt West and that the models could be getting it slightly wrong etc etc.

But when's there's no cold building anywhere to the East of us or even in Scandinavia (I don't really care about cold up North as that never really pans out for us) then the trend doesn't look great. I can't see the cold just appearing out of nowhere in 7 or 8 days. In fact, I'd be surprised if we even got one night's decent frost this December.

I'm not saying the rest of the winter will pan out like this, far from it. I just don't think we'll have anything of note for a while.