WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Harps

Yeah the seemingly never ending high pressure that's been on the models all week looks to suddenly be replaced by a raging Atlantic. No real storms on the models at the moment but they have a habit of cropping up at short notice so hopefully an interesting week of model watching afterall

aboyro

plenty of waves due next weekend if this pulls off

derekon

Darwin wrote: »

Looks like the raging Atlantic is well and truly back in control from midweek on. Forecasts would suggest widespread gales from the South for most parts on Saturday night which was first hinted at by the GFS model, but ECM now in agreement too. Good call on this by MT too.

Well I never thought I would say this but welcome back Atlantic! The thought of a dreaded "Bartlett High" forming and hanging around for 4-6 weeks was not a very comforting thought

The thought of weeks on end of cloudy and foggy weather was not a nice one (plus valuable snow time was being eaten into!)

I could be wrong but at least when we get the Atlantic kicking in, it gives us a chance of colder weather kicking in later December , early January as the pattern then has a better chance of re-setting? :rolleyes:

D

patneve2

Never thought I would say this but I'm actually looking forward to the prospect of some wind and rain...on a side note, mega Siberian high building in deep deep FI :P

Lucreto

Meanwhile in Canada

Blizzard 2010

16 days to go till Christmas. Will it be green, will it be white anyones guess. I am not convinced it will be green.

Blizzard 2010

Lucreto wrote: »

Meanwhile in Canada

:eek: Oh hell, Hit -40 in some parts of Lapland last night

red_bairn

Lucreto wrote: »

Meanwhile in Canada

You broke your scraper and the door handle! Ah fer jaysus sake!

Lucreto

red_bairn wrote: »

You broke your scraper and the door handle! Ah fer jaysus sake!

Looking at the ice he might have fell a few times.

dopolahpec

Lads I just saw the 0z GFS and honestly? Scared by it. Walloped by monster storm after monster storm. Looks weirdly plausible too.

Rebelbrowser

dopolahpec wrote: »

Lads I just saw the 0z GFS and honestly? Scared by it. Walloped by monster storm after monster storm. Looks weirdly plausible too.

I know I probably shouldn't but the below, depressing, synopsis of this morning's models from Gibby who posts on NW is worth sharing as an excellent summary.

"All models show a mild Southerly flow over the UK between High pressure over Southeast Europe and Low pressure over the mid Atlantic. The mildest conditions are shown towards the NW where Southerly breezes will be at their strongest with a little rain at times. In the SE drier continental air may filter across over the next 24-48 hurs bringing slightly less mild air and a greater risk of mist and fog overnight for a time. However, by the end of the week and into the weekend troughs make more progress across the UK bringing at least a short spell of rain and stronger winds for all before things dry up and settled down somewhat again over the second half of the weekend as High pressure is shown to build back North to some degree from the South.



GFS then shows a very mobile pattern next week and on until Christmas with the details irrelevant. With a train of Low pressure crossing quickly over or just to the North all areas can expect wind and rain and there will be quite a lot at times on Western upslopes. Winds will often be strong but always from a mild SW'ly direction continuing the no risk of wintry weather going for all areas.



UKMO today shows a return to this weeks synoptics early next week with High pressure refusing to move away from NW Europe with Low pressure out to the NW with a broad and very mild SW flow carrying rain at times to Northern and Western areas while the South and East maintain a lot of dry weather.



GEM today continues it's trend from yesterday with mild SW winds blowing strongly across all areas next week. Troughs and smal depressions in the flow will move rapidly NE over the North at times with some fast moving spells for all with the heaviest rain as usual towards the north and West with some drier interludes more likely towards the SE.



NAVGEM this morning holds the main thrust of Low pressure further to the NW and as a result High pressure remains close to the South and SE and although a few weak troughs deliver a little rain in the South at times the main share of Atlantic rain will be across the NW with mild conditions persisting everywhere.



ECM shows the weather becoming more deeply unsettled and often wet through the middle and end of next week with Low pressure troughs digging South across the UK delivering spells of rain and showers in blustery and mild SW winds. Things are shown to feel less mild later as winds switch more towards the West or even a little north of West at times when showery interludes could include a little wintriness over Northern hills.



The GFS Ensembles today show a few more dry days before things steadily turn more unsettled and often wet in the North and West but less so in the SE. This pattern is very indicative of a normal winter pattern of deep Low pressure to the NW and High to the SE with troughs crossing NE over all areas at times, most active towards the NW. Upper temperatures will fall off from current levels to nearer average ones later but at the surface some very mild days could be enjoyed in the SE Especially and to the lee of high ground in the NE. There looks absolutely no sign of anything remotely wintry from any ensemble member other than the odd one or two this morning.



The Jet Stream maintains it's trend to sink SE over the next few days to be running still in a NE direction across the Atlantic but this time over the UK allowing Atlantic lows and fronts to make deeper inroads into the UK. The trajectory though remains totally unbeneficial for getting any sort of cold anywhere near the UK due to persistent High pressure over SE Europe.



In Summary the trend towards more unsettled but still very mild weather is gathering some pace this morning. However, it looks unlikely that the SE will see too much in the way of rain but the North and West could become quite wet at times. Winds will also become more of a feature for all areas, blowing from the SW strongly at times with gales or severe gales in places and maintaining temperatures average or above for all. As we move inexorably towards Christmas day by day the chances of anything Wintry over the UK on the big day look distinctly remote from today's trend and synopses."

starskey77

the atlantic so over looked keeping this pleasent spell of weather
untill the end of december three cheers for the atlantic

icesnowfrost

starskey77 wrote: »

the atlantic so over looked keeping this pleasent spell of weather
untill the end of december three cheers for the atlantic

Boooo! Down with that sort if thing

dopolahpec

starskey77 wrote: »

the atlantic so over looked keeping this pleasent spell of weather
untill the end of december three cheers for the atlantic

I am trying to figure this out?

mike65

Its lovely and mild out!

/turns off heating

Harps

Lovely mild and sunny day yesterday, another week of that in the lead up to Christmas would be great. A dense freezing fog this morning but gearing up to be another great day once it burns off

leahyl

It's always the bloody same every year (well with the exception of 2010/2011 :pac:)

Elmer Blooker

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

:eek: Oh hell, Hit -40 in some parts of Lapland last night

........ and +5c tomorrow as a warm front topples over our super glue high.
here's a nice xmas card scene to cheer us up.
http://www.webbkameror.se/webbkameror/icehotel/index.php

Gonzo

mike65 wrote: »

Its lovely and mild out!

/turns off heating

same here, infact so far this winter seems more bearable, dry and mild than some of our recent summers! So far the start of winter has turned out to be a right stinker and will remain so till at least end of December, heres hoping for something much more wintery after Christmas. For me the entire month of January and first 2 weeks of February are of most importance if we are to see decent snow, as we found out last year snow from end of February onwards just isnt the same.

Loughc

R.I.P. Chances of a Snowy Christmas!

I had a feeeling it'd be a mild winter as soon as I saw people sharing a link on Facebook how we were going to have the worst winter on record! :mad:

maquiladora

Loughc wrote: »

R.I.P. Chances of a Snowy Christmas!

I had a feeeling it'd be a mild winter as soon as I saw people sharing a link on Facebook how we were going to have the worst winter on record! :mad:

Apart from a couple of exceptions in recent years, cold/snowy spells are very rare in Ireland before the end of December, if you look at the records.

mike65

Daily Express killed the winter!

snowstorm2013

Just been outside fixing up bird feeders etc though they arent bothering that much with them as there are still plenty of berries etc in the hedgerows. Its a beautiful December day. Mild, calm and most importantly dry. I, like many on here want to see a good fall of snow and a fortnight of sub zero temperatures but from a practical side of things I am glad to see the indications are that its not going to happen this side of Christmas. Jabuary in my opinion is the best month for this, it helps lift the post Christmas blues!

I have kept weather records (observations rather than actual measurements) for years here in Sligo and the only years I have recorded a snowfall event of lying snow before Christmas are December 1990 and December 2010. So snow and freezing weather before Christmas is certainly rare. In fact we are statistically more likely to see snowfall in March or April than December. Just having a look through my notes and I see we had a fall of wet snow and heavy hail showers here on the 7th May 1997!!

emo72

Beautiful summers day here in Dublin.

Fecking lights on here in the south end of Kildare, and quiet windy.

Nothing I hate more than the typical Irish winter, dark, and damp !!!

GIve me ice and snow and a bright sunny day any time !!!

icesnowfrost

Relax. It's still only early winter and anything csn happen. Nothing is certain after 2 weeks and lets not forget January is the coldest mont of winter

patneve2

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Just been outside fixing up bird feeders etc though they arent bothering that much with them as there are still plenty of berries etc in the hedgerows. Its a beautiful December day. Mild, calm and most importantly dry. I, like many on here want to see a good fall of snow and a fortnight of sub zero temperatures but from a practical side of things I am glad to see the indications are that its not going to happen this side of Christmas. Jabuary in my opinion is the best month for this, it helps lift the post Christmas blues!

I have kept weather records (observations rather than actual measurements) for years here in Sligo and the only years I have recorded a snowfall event of lying snow before Christmas are December 1990 and December 2010. So snow and freezing weather before Christmas is certainly rare. In fact we are statistically more likely to see snowfall in March or April than December. Just having a look through my notes and I see we had a fall of wet snow and heavy hail showers here on the 7th May 1997!!

Winter 1990-1991 is one that isn't talked about much but it was actually a very good winter for snow lovers. Good cold spells in December (thunder snow reported on the E. Coast), decent accumulations in the N and NW in early January (more thunder reported) and obviously February 1991. Pity I wasn't even born then

DOCARCH

People have to bear in mind, prior to 2010, you would not start thinking about snow until after Christmas!

Lucreto

Loughc wrote: »

R.I.P. Chances of a Snowy Christmas!

I had a feeeling it'd be a mild winter as soon as I saw people sharing a link on Facebook how we were going to have the worst winter on record! :mad:

It will be the worst winter on record... for snow lovers.

JJJJNR

FECK OFF SNOW! :cool: