WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

eastmayo

s.m wrote: »

what'll the weather be like in nw donegal overnight ? srry to keep asking

Just some frost no strong winds tonight,quite enough night.

ZX7R

s.m wrote: »

what'll the weather be like in nw donegal overnight ? srry to keep asking

frost and some fog maybe a sleet/rain shower

acassells80

Any snow forecast for the next storm to hit?

Iancar29

No

John.Icy

With the storm afoot later this evening, it seems many have snapped out of winter weather mode, but I've been carefully watching the far sections of the GFS for several days now and have been noticing changes and have been expecting some candy to start appearing. May come to nothing but finally, some signs way way out in FI things might get going.

irelandspurs

I predict were going to have lots of snow at the end of January once all this wind has blown through. Be nice to get a little bit.

snaps

John.Icy wrote: »

With the storm afoot later this evening, it seems many have snapped out of winter weather mode, but I've been carefully watching the far sections of the GFS for several days now and have been noticing changes and have been expecting some candy to start appearing. May come to nothing but finally, some signs way way out in FI things might get going.

The only problem you have with any kind of easterly now is there is no cold in Europe. Because of all these big depressions hitting your side of Europe, its killed winter here in mainland Europe. Very warm air is being dragged up from South Spain/Africa/Middle east up to as far as Lapland in Finland. Ourselves here in Southern Poland have had the warmest Christmas for many years (it was 13c) We had storm force winds the last 2 days upto 130km/h with lots of damage and carnage around our region near Zakapone. Ourselves had a tree fall onto an outbuilding, luckily not one containing animals, tiles off roofs, fences destroyed and no electric. In Zakapone (Large ski resort) the snow is in major meltdown (Even snow making machines are no good as its far too warm), roofs ripped off buildings, trees down on property and vehicles and no electric.
No real sign of any winter weather here at all while these big depressions are dragging so much warm air up to moscow. Today we awoke to 11.3c, its mad, usually there is a good covering of snow this time of year (Even though we still have lying snow, its near enough gone).
These charts seem to be on the end of all the runs, but just get pushed back. We were promised a very cold new year, but looks like it will be a damp warm end to the year. It will kill the tourism in the mountains.

RuthieRose

Just wondering what time this next storm is due to arrive? I'm in Cavan and wondering about the annual rugby club outing?

nacho libre

A lot of Europe is unusually warm, but at this time of year it won't take that long for it to cool down, If the Siberan beast awakes from its slumber. However, I'm not seeing anything to get too excited about at the moment. It seems we're stuck with this pattern(probably with less intense systems after this one) until well into January.

M.T. Cranium

Things are generally following the pattern I was expecting, mostly mild and stormy this past two weeks, timing of somewhat colder two days over Christmas not really changing the bigger picture ... and I continue to believe that January will produce some much colder patterns around mid-month, the transition to that should begin with more of a west to northwest type of flow in early January and eventually one or two good blocking set-ups are likely. It may not persist or amount to much, but it only takes one good easterly to make a winter as per 1987.

red_bairn

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Things are generally following the pattern I was expecting, mostly mild and stormy this past two weeks, timing of somewhat colder two days over Christmas not really changing the bigger picture ... and I continue to believe that January will produce some much colder patterns around mid-month, the transition to that should begin with more of a west to northwest type of flow in early January and eventually one or two good blocking set-ups are likely. It may not persist or amount to much, but it only takes one good easterly to make a winter as per 1987.

When was that? Earlier in the year?

roshje

irelandspurs wrote: »

I predict were going to have lots of snow at the end of January once all this wind has blown through. Be nice to get a little bit.

not really

patneve2

Northern blocking starting to become a distinct trend in FI now. First steps...

M.T. Cranium

Yep, I came in to say the same, GEM in particular would only need minor work at 10 days out to bring in a decent blocking high and an easterly. It reaches Scotland and northeast England on the 10d map (6 Jan).

My research model was showing 8-12 Jan as the coldest part of the winter when I made my LRF and as I have done no upgrading of the model since then I could say that it still does. The signals in that do not quite reach the complexity of daily variations in real time but if you smooth the recent data to a running five-day mean there is a really high correlation, so I continue to be optimistic that wintry cold and snow might pay a visit in that period.

Super hoop

patneve2 wrote: »

Northern blocking starting to become a distinct trend in FI now. First steps...

Here's hoping!!

rickdangerouss

Well, things are building for this outcome, maybe.



Thanks to Matt Hugo for this twitter up on the possible mid Jan events.



Forecast for Russia and the east is not that cold, could be close but no snowman again.

rickdangerouss

Look at what I found.

M.T. Cranium

One of the better near miss scenarios I've seen so far this winter. ^

Stockholm gets buried.

snaps

patneve2 wrote: »

Northern blocking starting to become a distinct trend in FI now. First steps...

FI. There always seems that trend in FI. Also no cold what's so ever here in the east. Last few days have been like spring. Yesterday I was outside working in a t shirt.

compsys

snaps wrote: »

FI. There always seems that trend in FI. Also no cold what's so ever here in the east. Last few days have been like spring. Yesterday I was outside working in a t shirt.

We're coming into the coldest part of the winter now. With the right conditions it wouldn't take long at all for severe cold to begin building in the East and start pushing westwards.

Admittedly it would be better if the cold was already in place but you can't have everything!

snaps

Even into Lapland its above freezing. Moscow is not sub zero either. Crazy crazy weather. Nudged 15c here earlier, feels like march rather than late December.

derekon

snaps wrote: »

Even into Lapland its above freezing. Moscow is not sub zero either. Crazy crazy weather. Nudged 15c here earlier, feels like march rather than late December.

Ireland has to be one of the coldest places in Europe at the moment. However there really is no point in having an easterly now as it would only be wasted given
there is no real cold coming out of either Russia or the Arctic! Will Mt 's prediction of a cold and possibly snowy mid January 2014 come to pass? Will be interesting to see!

derekon

snaps wrote: »

Even into Lapland its above freezing. Moscow is not sub zero either. Crazy crazy weather. Nudged 15c here earlier, feels like march rather than late December.

Ireland has to be one of the coldest places in Europe at the moment. However there really is no point in having an easterly now as it would only be wasted given
there is no real cold coming out of either Russia or the Arctic! Will Mt 's prediction of a cold and possibly snowy mid January 2014 come to pass? Will be interesting to see!

snaps

ive looked through the charts and I cant see any kind of blocking, unless Ive missed something?

maquiladora

ECM showing more possible stormy conditions for the southwest/south next week.

Gonzo

I have a feeling this is going to be a very late winter which could extend into May.

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

I have a feeling this is going to be a very late winter which could extend into May.

I think you could be right Gonzo, however I just hope that any pronounced easterly does not come too late as the sun will start to get a lot stronger come March 2014. Interesting times ahead. I think that M.T. has stated before that the Irish winter really runs from mid December through to mid March. If this is the case then we have lots of time left for a decent snow event! I am hoping that over the next week to ten days the models will start to show some encouraging charts for coldies!

mike65

Maybe we won't have a winter really. and then a ****e spring and summer, you know the usual!

Storm 10

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM showing more possible stormy conditions for the southwest/south next week.

what day is that maq

maquiladora

Thursday. GFS doesn't have it, but looks like there will be a few little lows spinning around next week, so something interesting might pop up closer to the time.