WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Harps

Looks like another windy week ahead with potential for more storms, a different look to the GFS andd ECMWF runs but the theme on both is for wet and very windy weather

dopolahpec

All sorts of little lows and big lows appearing in the model output. Looks like unsettled is still the theme and I'd not be surprised if we end up in the firing line for another winter storm before the season's out

maquiladora

Looks pretty windy for the Wexford/Wicklow coast late tomorrow night/early Monday morning. 40-50 mph sustained winds for a time.

lapua20grain

just copped this from joe bastardi
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/416542849472032768/photo/1

lapua20grain

lapua20grain wrote: »

just copped this from joe bastardi
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/416542849472032768/photo/1

Cool ! haha pun intended !

And we're right in the core of the cold if it ends up like that.

I miss Joe's Euro blog on Accuweather, now he hardly bothers. I'm sure there are a lot of subscribers to his Weatherbell site so he could spend a good bit more time talking about European weather.

dopolahpec

Still hints of a pattern change after about Day 10 with more amplified less zonal stuff showing, but it is not in the reliable.

Winter is flying by. I would say the next 7 weeks are the best to get the snow in...we can write off one of those weeks at least, possibly two.

After Valentines Day or so, it just isn't the same...

And you WILL NOT convince me otherwise.

Hope we see a big change soon though.

talkabout

Iancar29 wrote: »

Oh would you look at that ! , the Postman was wrong ! , AGAIN ! , but as per usual the papers wont role that out ! ha

Merry Christmas everyone

Not just the postman

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/a-white-december-but-no-snow-on-christmas-day-243168.html

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/white-christmas-for-irelands-south-says-nz-forecaster-251254.html

derekon

talkabout wrote: »

Not just the postman

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/a-white-december-but-no-snow-on-christmas-day-243168.html

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/white-christmas-for-irelands-south-says-nz-forecaster-251254.html

I think the less said about those forecasts the better Still Ken Ring did put his neck on the line with his predictions and can be viewed as somewhat braver than the rest of us mortals!

D

Spring Onion

How is MT's winter prediction going so far?

Or am I allowed ask that question! :P

Gonzo

dopolahpec wrote: »

Still hints of a pattern change after about Day 10 with more amplified less zonal stuff showing, but it is not in the reliable.

Winter is flying by. I would say the next 7 weeks are the best to get the snow in...we can write off one of those weeks at least, possibly two.

After Valentines Day or so, it just isn't the same...

And you WILL NOT convince me otherwise.

Hope we see a big change soon though.

totally agree, once the 3rd week of February has passed snow is just not the same, it falls by night and is usually melted by noon. Happened so many times from late february onwards last year. Hopefully we will see a big change very soon to save this winter.

whitebriar

derekon wrote: »

I think the less said about those forecasts the better Still Ken Ring did put his neck on the line with his predictions and can be viewed as somewhat braver than the rest of us mortals!

D

Brave? He hasn't been back since he made those to face the music maybe because loads of us were asking how we could put faith in his winter predictions when his autumn ones (and historically so many of the rest of them too) were so far out.A totally valid question by the way.


February 1991 had several inches of lying snow in parts of the east and sub zero maxes in Wicklow and Wexford in the last week of February.
The cold arrived on valentines day with flurries in an East wind in the Arklow area but it was later in the week that hefty snow shower trains blew in off the Irish Sea as the wind backed more North easterly,always the better direction off fetch.

In my memory,any time after the last week in February is getting too late for usefull snow in populated lowland areas except in extremes like maybe 47

47 was that the big fall of snow in May that I remember my mother saying my Grandfather used to talk about ?

derekon

Spring Onion wrote: »

How is MT's winter prediction going so far?

Or am I allowed ask that question! :P

The last thing I heard from MT was over on NetWeather (where he goes under the name Roger J Smith) was with this post he made back in early December 2013 if memory serves me correct:



The most hopeful thing I could say for winter weather lovers is that patterns often reload after 20-30 days and if the current short-range pattern reloads somewhat further south, then a Jan 1987 type flip-flop would be easy to imagine, let's say if a low dive-bombs across the UK into central Europe on a track 200 miles south of this one coming along, around the first week of January, then the Atlantic would not find it as easy to push into the void and even if retrograde index was not overly high, you could get a good Scandinavian block setting up. So I would say, expect some good things in the period 5-20 Jan with 8-12 Jan the heart of the window of opportunity from my research. Before that, any notable records likely to be on the high side.

Frank Lee Midere

MT seems spot on so far.

pistolpetes11

He has not been back because he was asked not to post ,

If we could leave it at that ,

Thanks

whitebriar wrote: »

Brave? He hasn't been back since he made those to face the music maybe because loads of us were asking how we could put faith in his winter predictions when his autumn ones (and historically so many of the rest of them too) were so far out.A totally valid question by the way.


February 1991 had several inches of lying snow in parts of the east and sub zero maxes in Wicklow and Wexford in the last week of February.
The cold arrived on valentines day with flurries in an East wind in the Arklow area but it was later in the week that hefty snow shower trains blew in off the Irish Sea as the wind backed more North easterly,always the better direction off fetch.

In my memory,any time after the last week in February is getting too late for usefull snow in populated lowland areas except in extremes like maybe 47

Sir Arthur Daley

We wont be seeing any snow any time soon

whitebriar

It's going to be difficult for proper winter to set in,ie from the east or North East whilst all that cold energy from North America is pouring into and exploding with the warm Atlantic making our current storm train.Theres another blast of it gearing up in the coming weeks.
As we've seen, some washed out residue cold (by then very modified artic maritime air) can find its way into the mix in the backside of the systems sometimes and that's just about good enough for brief almost tauntingly brief snowy episodes in favoured areas with heavy showers well inland up north like Cavan and mountains elsewhere.
It's something I suppose.

derekon

I suppose the fear for all cold and snow lovers is that the models at the moment are not showing any decent cold in the reliable time frame (say the 7th January 2014). Once we pass that date, there really is only 7 weeks before the end of February and snow after the end of February never really lasts that long.

So we are now looking at a very small window of just 7 weeks for snow.

OK, a quick glance at some European cities this evening to see how we are doing temperature-wise:

- Dublin, IRELAND +8oC
- London, ENGLAND +7oC
- Edinburgh, SCOTLAND +5oC
- Paris, FRANCE +6oC
- Prague, CZECH REP -1oC
- Budapest, HUNGARY +2oC
- Oslo, NORWAY +3oC
- Stockholm, SWEDEN -4oC
- Copenhagen, DENMARK +4oC
- Berlin, GERMANY +2oC
- Warsaw, POLAND -4oC
- Moscow, RUSSIA +2oC

So a quick glance around some European cities tonight shows that Europe remains very mild as we head into 2014.

Will this change suddenly in mid January 2014 ?

D

Blizzard 2010

Winter is not over just yet, We may have a Strat warming very soon. AO is forecasted to enter into negative teriitory All is not lost

esposito

derekon wrote: »

I suppose the fear for all cold and snow lovers is that the models at the moment are not showing any decent cold in the reliable time frame (say the 7th January 2014). Once we pass that date, there really is only 7 weeks before the end of February and snow after the end of February never really lasts that long.

So we are now looking at a very small window of just 7 weeks for snow.

OK, a quick glance at some European cities this evening to see how we are doing temperature-wise:

- Dublin, IRELAND +8oC
- London, ENGLAND +7oC
- Edinburgh, SCOTLAND +5oC
- Paris, FRANCE +6oC
- Prague, CZECH REP -1oC
- Budapest, HUNGARY +2oC
- Oslo, NORWAY +3oC
- Stockholm, SWEDEN -4oC
- Copenhagen, DENMARK +4oC
- Berlin, GERMANY +2oC
- Warsaw, POLAND -4oC
- Moscow, RUSSIA +2oC

So a quick glance around some European cities tonight shows that Europe remains very mild as we head into 2014.

Will this change suddenly in mid January 2014 ?

D

I bloody hope so. This current regime cant go on forever. It could be late Jan/early Feb but thats good enough for me.

patneve2

A split of the polar vortex is looking more probable, probably something interesting will occur late January and into February. Obviously nothing certain but its looking better.

Clonmel1000

Hold on a second now a lot of experts here pit a lot of store in Jan 8th as being the start of some snow event. Is that now off the agenda?

mike65

No chance of that, its westerlies ahoy for as far as the models can see.

derekon

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Hold on a second now a lot of experts here pit a lot of store in Jan 8th as being the start of some snow event. Is that now off the agenda?

MT Cranium is one of the weather boards' most respected members and has been very accurate in terms of past predictions of winter weather. My understanding is that the research model he uses does suggest a chance of snow during the period 1st - 20th January with it most likely to snow between the 8th and the 12th of January.

That does not look likely now but the 12th of January is a bit away in meteorological terms.

If snow is going to fall during the indicated period, it really would have to start showing up now in the weather models pretty soon - unfortunately,at this point in time, I don't see any end to the onslaught of mild Atlantic muck. :mad:

D

M.T. Cranium

Well, right about now the models are not showing us any strong signals for a colder turn near the end of this ten day period, so it would come as a bit of a last-minute flip-flop. Energy peak around 14-16 Jan might hit just when this wave train breaks down so perhaps the colder period will be delayed and turn into a snowfall event.

Never thought it would last very long in any case, as most of the output showed milder conditions quickly returning and dominating February too.

Would say we are around a 50-50 chance of some wintry weather in January, and nothing too sustained at that.

nacho libre

People are skeptical of Long range forecasts. but i have to say his(M.T.Cranium's) forecasts since he started here have been the most accurate of any that are in the public domain. I think with this degree of forecasting consistency, its got to be more than just pot luck on his behalf. M.T. Cranium gets the overall picture correct, but his timing is not always accurate on pattern changes.
With this in mind, if he is correct about a pattern change, it maybe that we don't get any notable cold till the last week or so in January- current guidance certainly indicates a mobile pattern lasting well into January.

His old friend Joe Bastardi has let me down, though. i recall him saying a couple of years ago that winter 2013/14 would be an epic in a series due to low solar activity:(

Birdnuts

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Never thought it would last very long in any case, as most of the output showed milder conditions quickly returning and dominating February too.

.

Is Feb looking like our current weather or the type of anticylonic gloom we had for many weeks in Nov/Dec??

icesnowfrost

Have faith people the weather is wat it is. I would love a snowfest from the first day of winter until the last but that's the enjoyment of watching the models and seeming wat pans out.

Things are changing all the time so hopefully the cold can sink south and break through the jet stream long enough for some chance of snow.

I look forward to seeing MTs forecast every morning in the hope he says
" ADVANCED ALERT for snow, heavy snow showers will affect the east coast of Ireland with snow sticking at all low levels. But no snow for cork "

Happy new year guys

Godge

nacho libre wrote: »

People are skeptical of Long range forecasts. but i have to say his(M.T.Cranium's) forecasts since he started here have been the most accurate of any that are in the public domain. I think with this degree of forecasting consistency, its got to be more than just pot luck on his behalf. M.T. Cranium gets the overall picture correct, but his timing is not always accurate on pattern changes.
With this in mind, if he is correct about a pattern change, it maybe that we don't get any notable cold till the last week or so in January- current guidance certainly indicates a mobile pattern lasting well into January.

His old friend Joe Bastardi has let me down, though. i recall him saying a couple of years ago that winter 2013/14 would be an epic in a series due to low solar activity:(

Have to agree with this. MT gets most trends right but the timing of changes is still not 100% accurate. Sometimes the turn to cold is too late for snow but gives spring frosts.

Blizzard 2010

Godge wrote: »

Have to agree with this. MT gets most trends right but the timing of changes is still not 100% accurate. Sometimes the turn to cold is too late for snow but gives spring frosts.

whats not to day the second half of winter will be epic.:D