WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

zidewayz

Happy new year too yee all.

Thanks MT for your daily forecasts.

As a snowbie I have had more snow events so far this year than last(while all being a bit wet at 120masl) I have climbed a bit higher to give the dog it's treat.

Driving along the N11 towards Dublin today and I think It was Lug in the distance that was being covered in snow.

If it's snow ya want this year get yet hiking boots on.

Iancar29

ANyone for -40 ??

#wecanonlydream lol

finnharpsboy

Saturday according to this app we will get light snow ????

atsbury

finnharpsboy wrote: »

Saturday according to this app we will get light snow ????

What's that app? If I may ask

finnharpsboy

atsbury wrote: »

What's that app? If I may ask

Weather live free on iPad

rickdangerouss

The long-term train of storms, this winter and the jet stream has been in the same position for a number of weeks too. If I recall this happen in the summer too, the very wet and cold one? 2 years ago? My point is, are weather systems\trends been dragged out and lasting months instead of weeks. Also the cold winters too, they had months of cold weather.

I am not staying its climate change. I have looked and did not find any previous times, when these events happen. I am finding more questions rather than answers on the subject, at least thanks to this site I can raised them and get a educated response.. :P

http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2013/dec/31/2013-review-extreme-weather-pictures#/?picture=425390416&index=9

Dotsie~tmp

rickdangerouss wrote: »

The long-term train of storms, this winter and the jet stream has been in the same position for a number of weeks too. If I recall this happen in the summer too, the very wet and cold one? 2 years ago? My point is, are weather systems\trends been dragged out and lasting months instead of weeks. Also the cold winters too, they had months of cold weather.

I am not staying its climate change. I have looked and did not find any previous times, when these events happen. I am finding more questions rather than answers on the subject, at least thanks to this site I can raised them and get a educated response.. :P

http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2013/dec/31/2013-review-extreme-weather-pictures#/?picture=425390416&index=9

I don't understand all the bickering all these year we have had over forecasting. Weather, the fairly closed thermodynamic system composed of the atmosphere around our planet, the planet itself, it's bio mass and our nearest star's energy input is a spectacularly complex system. We know its complex, we know why its complex yet still demand predictions unreasonable for our current ability to measure, model and simulate the system in a time-frame that's in any way useful.

Is it too hard to just admit we don't have the knowledge or computing power to forecast *accurately over even short time scales.

*depends on what we define as accurate of course. A wide range from every particle located in the system at the smallest time interval (magic/god) to broadly localising macro scale objects (massive collections of particles).

Missymoohaa

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

Just came accross this snow risk predictor on net weather site, click on animate tab and watch for 15th Jan to 18th Jan. Looks interesting, but all can change I know, it would tie in with MTs predictions though. We can only hope.

United road

Snow for east tonight at lower levels!!

Birdnuts

Big Scandi High on tonights ECM for later next week

patneve2

Not getting my hopes up looking at tonight's ECM, but we have to start from somewhere I suppose.. :rolleyes:

acassells80

United road wrote: »

Snow for east tonight at lower levels!!

Too warm out there in Dublin. Would love to wake up to snow ..

United road

Not acording to ME after 6 news!
Time will tell i suppose.

lolie

A certain weather guru was on with Matt cooper after 5 this evenin saying theres snow for the 9th and 10th of this month;)

esposito

lolie wrote: »

A certain weather guru was on with Matt cooper after 5 this evenin saying theres snow for the 9th and 10th of this month;)

Haha thats way too soon.

My hunch is 16th Jan onwards for snow potential:p

snaps

The ecm is the only model showing a Scandinavian high. All other models are carrying on with the low pressures coming in from the Atlantic, but being not as fierce.

Elmer Blooker

snaps wrote: »

The ecm is the only model showing a Scandinavian high. All other models are carrying on with the low pressures coming in from the Atlantic, but being not as fierce.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2013/brack/bracka20131205.gif
I agree. Expect to see a lot of charts like this one ^ later in the month, basically back to where we were before the stormy spell in the second half of December. If the summer is bad around the middle of July it will stay bad, if the winter is mild around the middle of Jan it will stay that way.
The best we can hope for now is a "sting in the tail" winter - late Feb and March. I would love to be wrong and see a monster greenie or scandi but looking very unlikely unfortunately.

snaps

We have had 4 weeks of very mild sunny weather since beginning of December. Some days almost like April. Grass is growing, flowers are flowering, even animals are out of hibernation. Ski resorts have no snow either and we have the ski jumping world championship in 3 weeks in zakapone. All the time you in Ireland and UK have deep depressions, it drags very warm air up to us. This winter has never Been seen like this for many years. I'm in southern Poland.

Red Nissan

snaps wrote: »

This winter has never Been seen like this for many years. I'm in southern Poland.

Indeed, just chatting about our weather and we've not had this pattern in a while either, the Jet Stream's positioning would seem to be the deciding factor.

In the last few years it was much more north of us [Ireland/ UK] and we got colder weather and much snow, even some places seeing snow for the first time.

However, now the Jet Stream is right over us apparently and is thus throwing every Atlantic disturbance right at us and giving us high and more persistent winds and lots of rain with no cold to speak of.

nacho libre

Well with the strat forecast seemingly not as favourable as it was a few days ago, it's hard to see anything other than brief topplers once this pattern of intense systems barrelling across the Atlantic towards us wanes. I have not been following the sun's activity, but it looks like low solar activity has not played a part in facilitating blocking this year, nor has the jet stream going south on occasion worked out to our advantage. Was it in December 2010 the jet stream went on holiday close to Africa, and Portugal got all our wind and rain, while we were in freezer.

nacho libre

snaps wrote: »

We have had 4 weeks of very mild sunny weather since beginning of December. Some days almost like April. Grass is growing, flowers are flowering, even animals are out of hibernation. Ski resorts have no snow either and we have the ski jumping world championship in 3 weeks in zakapone. All the time you in Ireland and UK have deep depressions, it drags very warm air up to us. This winter has never Been seen like this for many years. I'm in southern Poland.

My sister has been saying the same thing. Whatever about us getting sustained cold, i'll be surprised if there isn't a sting in the tail for eastern Europe before winters done.

snaps

nacho libre wrote: »

My sister has been saying the same thing. Whatever about us getting sustained cold, i'll be surprised if there isn't a sting in the tail for eastern Europe before winters done.

We had 2 weeks of winter at the end of November. We have had warm days and cold nights (High pressure). Some days have been in the teens and ive been outside in a T shirt. One good thing is we have used hardly any timber so far this winter and I already have next winters timber cut from storm falls. Its nature I feel sorry for as its been joked into believing its spring here.

icesnowfrost

Promising forecast from Simon keeling. The Korean charts are hinting at cold north east flow early feb

Iamkipper

Looks like the states are going to get another battering

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2014/01/04/polar-vortex-to-blast-frigid-air-over-much-us/

Wish we go some, just a small amount but tt doesnt look like we will see an easterly the way things are going

Elmer Blooker

That damn PV giving record cold in the US and an unusually mild winter in Europe just won't go away :mad:
When it's unusually cold somewhere it's also unusually mild somewhere else.
Look at the weather the Canadian Arctic was getting during our exceptional December 2010.
https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/3657/cold-comfort-canadas-record-smashing-mildness

rickdangerouss

Lucky people, if you like the snow.. Maybe a little to much??





From the link below.

https://twitter.com/thefutureyousee/status/419460246839783424/photo/1

HAha that's mental !

nacho libre

rickdangerouss wrote: »

Lucky people, if you like the snow.. Maybe a little to much??





nonsense! you can never have too much snow;)

Redsunset

Can winter begin?

snaps

The ecm is teasing us with a scandi high from this weekend. The gfs has other ideas as usual.

Gem also starts to build one from Sunday but then it sinks south to quick.