WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Kenring

jaffusmax wrote: »

No body is sticking their necks out just mostly predicting colder than average but as always these are mostly UK based forecasts and do not take into account Irelands more westerly location!

I thought predictions, suggestions, opinions, were about sticking one's neck out so to speak, and exactly what this forum is for. But those stats are interesting!

jaffusmax

Kenring wrote: »

I thought predictions, suggestions, opinions, were about sticking one's neck out so to speak, and exactly what this forum is for. But those stats are interesting!

You can stick you neck out but not too far or you run the risk of getting it cut in half by the pitchfork welding locals!

omicron

Kenring wrote: »

Despite one or two frost days, this year they may be less likely in either September or October. October frosts are not unusual in Ireland around the last week, but probably not this year.
November should bring widespread frosts across Ireland, in my view, 4-8 November, 18-21 November and a sudden downward plunge into subzeros in the last few days of November with good snowfalls on November's last day.
December frosts will probably not occur before the third week. I have the cold dry time around 17th-23rd, give or take a day or two.
The first week in January may be very cold and frosty because of the combination of new moon and the second closest perigee for 2014. That week may bring some of the coldest temperatures of winter.
Then I expect coldest times of months to be the second weeks of February, March and April.

Do you mind me asking how it will happen that 30th November will have snow and then suddenly there will be no frost for 3 weeks? There will surely be some overlap between cold and mild?

rickdangerouss

<snip>
If anyone breaks up my Snow Dreams this winter, quicker than arctic summer sea ice.

They will be swimming with the polar bears. Excuse me, while I get on my ice chariot to collect the pitchfork for the locals.

Kenring

omicron wrote: »

Do you mind me asking how it will happen that 30th November will have snow and then suddenly there will be no frost for 3 weeks? There will surely be some overlap between cold and mild?

Probably right. I never said 'suddenly'. I am talking about trends.

jaffusmax

Kenring wrote: »

Probably right. I never said 'suddenly'. I am talking about trends.

Do you revise your forecasts should trends favour a different reality to your prediction?

Villain

<Mod Snip>

Personal attacks are not permitted on this forum nor indeed is any mention of Ken Ring's business
Please read this
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=86564248&postcount=124

First and final warning

lapua20grain

any idea when M.T. Cranium will be posting his thoughts on this winter?

Popoutman

lapua20grain wrote: »

any idea when M.T. Cranium will be posting his thoughts on this winter?

That's the weather forecast I'm looking forwards to - MT called the summer and September pretty much right, certainly a much better trend forecast compared to other weather "opinions" so far this year.

Been much better than a lot of the others too over the past few years of my watching this forum. Also not afraid to be called out as wrong, unlike others here!

My preference for weather this winter is, if it is to be cold, let it be clear and cold so I can do some stargazing, If it is to be wet, let it be wet enough that the rivers come up so I can get some decent kayaking done. I don't want it to be cold, murky and damp as that sucks for all my extracurricular activities. Though that sounds quite like a typical Irish year's weather..

hawkwing

19c in Dublin airport at 2000 on Sept 21st :eek:,hard to believe we could be only 7-8 weeks away from late November snow like a couple of years ago although very unlikely.Then again it was over 20c on March 28th in 2012 and a week later a car got stuck on Sally Gap in snow so things can change very quickly.

jaffusmax

hawkwing wrote: »

19c in Dublin airport at 2000 on Sept 21st :eek:,hard to believe we could be only 7-8 weeks away from late November snow like a couple of years ago although very unlikely.Then again it was over 20c on March 28th in 2012 and a week later a car got stuck on Sally Gap in snow so things can change very quickly.

From the info I have read and posted it seems like all the ingredients are there for an epic winter but I honesty don't think anyone can nail down specifics just yet. I am keeping an open mind but only open to facts and science!

lapua20grain

Popoutman wrote: »

That's the weather forecast I'm looking forwards to - MT called the summer and September pretty much right, certainly a much better trend forecast compared to other weather "opinions" so far this year.

Been much better than a lot of the others too over the past few years of my watching this forum. Also not afraid to be called out as wrong, unlike others here!

My preference for weather this winter is, if it is to be cold, let it be clear and cold so I can do some stargazing, If it is to be wet, let it be wet enough that the rivers come up so I can get some decent kayaking done. I don't want it to be cold, murky and damp as that sucks for all my extracurricular activities. Though that sounds quite like a typical Irish year's weather..

have to say i agree with you i go by his forecast he seems to be quite consistent in his forecast and not afraid to change it either

Calibos

I'll certainly be obtaining a set of Winter tyres this year just in case.

relaxed

omicron wrote: »

Do you mind me asking how it will happen that 30th November will have snow and then suddenly there will be no frost for 3 weeks? There will surely be some overlap between cold and mild?

Ken called end of summer 2 weeks ago, he also called close to 30 degrees in late August, never happened, the weather today is better than any day in August, I wouldn't be buying an extra carrot for a snowman based on kens wild guess, in fact better off buying sun cream, given his guesses are so bad.

Loughc

Calibos wrote: »

I'll certainly be obtaining a set of Winter tyres this year just in case.

Sssshhhh don't jinx us! :P

jaffusmax

jaffusmax

Appears to be a good start to the snow cover over Siberia this year! More of the same an we could have a nice pool of cold to the East and hopefully over Sandi should snow cover the area early this year!

Present Snow Cover

2012 Snow Cover


2010 Snow Cover

pistolpetes11

If you get a chance have a look at IWO forecast this moring , Its MT from here but they added in a little bit at the end about an early look at the winter ,

Mix of Mild and Cold spells but "perhaps a somewhat milder theme "

Could be another golfing winter , a silver lining on every cloud !

Loughc

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Mix of Mild and Cold spells but "perhaps a somewhat milder theme "

Could be another golfing winter , a silver lining on every cloud !

Shut up, shut up, shut up!!

leahyl

Loughc wrote: »

Shut up, shut up, shut up!!

My sentiments exactly!

maquiladora

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

If you get a chance have a look at IWO forecast this moring , Its MT from here but they added in a little bit at the end about an early look at the winter ,

Mix of Mild and Cold spells but "perhaps a somewhat milder theme "

Could be another golfing winter , a silver lining on every cloud !

And in fairness that would be a typical Irish winter and statistically has a much higher probability of happening rather than another 2009/2010.

jaffusmax

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

If you get a chance have a look at IWO forecast this moring , Its MT from here but they added in a little bit at the end about an early look at the winter ,

Mix of Mild and Cold spells but "perhaps a somewhat milder theme "

Could be another golfing winter , a silver lining on every cloud !

Weathering

It's September, don't take predictions for this Winter seriously as it's completely pointless.

leahyl

jaffusmax wrote: »

MMMM I love a bit of Josh :pac:

jaffusmax

leahyl wrote: »

MMMM I love a bit of Josh :pac:

ahhhhh Don't ruin the Gif for me!

Lucreto

I am still going for a 2011 Winter for this year but this if from a Russian Paper.
It could be the Russian Daily Mail for all I know.

Europe could see coldest winter in 100 years
http://translate.google.ie/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://jurnalul.ro/stiri/observator/iarna-care-vine-va-fi-cea-mai-rece-din-ultimii-100-de-ani-experti-rusi-651891.html

Knowing our luck we will only get sizzle and the rest of Europe will be white.

Edit also from kildareweather.com

This week will be unseasonably mild. I won't use the word warm as i think mild better sums up the weather.

Most days will see some cloud but some good sunshine to be had everywhere in Kildare.
So far it looks good up until next weekend but lots of uncertainty beyond next sunday.

If this weather pattern establishes itself over Ireland/Europe it could actually lead to a very cold winter and is a known as a blocking pattern whereby the jetstream stays well to the south over Spain and puts us on the cold side of the system.

No point talking about winter just yet as lots can happen between now and then so just enjoy the weather while it lasts.

maquiladora

Lucreto wrote: »

I am still going for a 2011 Winter for this year but this if from a Russian Paper.
It could be the Russian Daily Mail for all I know.

Europe could see coldest winter in 100 years
http://translate.google.ie/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://jurnalul.ro/stiri/observator/iarna-care-vine-va-fi-cea-mai-rece-din-ultimii-100-de-ani-experti-rusi-651891.html

That sounds familiar...

Coldest winter in 100 years on way (From last year....heh)

Lucreto

maquiladora wrote: »

That sounds familiar...

Coldest winter in 100 years on way (From last year....heh)

So it is from the equivalent of the express and daily mail.

Calibos

Last Winter while not exceptionally cold nor white in this part of the country was cold enough for central heating for an exceptionally long time. It taught me an important lesson.

I mild Winter has its benefits !!

Like 6 months of heating bills from October to March totalling €900 instead of €1700.

Nov/Dec 2010 Snowfest Winter was actually a cheap Winter in terms of heating bills for me. It didn't matter whether it was +5ºc or -5ºc that Nov/Dec. The heating needed to be on regardless. However, Oct 2010 and Jan 2011 onwards were average temp wise IIRC. So a month of snow on the ground didn't actually affect our heating bills that Winter at all really. Winter 2012/2013 was a heating requiring +5ºc for 6 whole months it seemed.

Blizzard 2010

Dzalinda in siberia is -3 with light snow and is expected to drop to -6c by the end of the week.:eek: and by November 1st it can fall as low as - 20c