WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Missymoohaa · 06-01-2014 11:50am

snaps wrote: »

The ecm is teasing us with a scandi high from this weekend. The gfs has other ideas as usual.

Gem also starts to build one from Sunday but then it sinks south to quick.

Ah Snaps you're such a Killjoy

:D, I was so excited.

patneve2 · 06-01-2014 1:40pm

ECM in FI ties in well with what the OPI guys forecast for end of January/ February - positive heights over UK and Scandi with a lower latitude cold flow towards Central Europe and the Med. I respect those guys a lot - in November 2012 (without the OPI) one of them forecast the undercut theme that was prevalent over us in March 2013 (and January 2013 to a certain extent).

Still think we will at least get one cold spell between now and the end of winter though. If the Atlantic stays fired up we may even have a chance of an undercut provided the Scandi High is strong enough.

nacho libre · 06-01-2014 1:53pm

patneve2 wrote: »

ECM in FI ties in well with what the OPI guys forecast for end of January/ February - positive heights over UK and Scandi with a lower latitude cold flow towards Central Europe and the Med. I respect those guys a lot - in November 2012 (without the OPI) one of them forecast the undercut theme that was prevalent over us in March 2013 (and January 2013 to a certain extent).

Still think we will at least get one cold spell between now and the end of winter though. If the Atlantic stays fired up we may even have a chance of an undercut provided the Scandi High is strong enough.

The OPI? Are they the Austrian forecasters that are referenced on Netweather sometimes?

patneve2 · 06-01-2014 3:17pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The OPI? Are they the Austrian forecasters that are referenced on Netweather sometimes?

OPI stands for october pattern index. It is an interesting new tool that might accurately predict the AO for the winter months. The italian researchers have also come up with a winter forecast based on the OPI. So far the OPI has been spot on (the average AO value for winter they came up with was 1.6), with a very positive AO index so far in the season.

maquiladora · 06-01-2014 3:52pm

Now thats what you call cold.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCrrJs2areo

nacho libre · 06-01-2014 5:09pm

The UKMO, according to the uk met office employee who posts on netweather, seem to be hinting at a possible change to colder weather later in the month, but whether it'll be just dry and settled or something a bit better isn't clear.

Tenger · 06-01-2014 5:14pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Now thats what you call cold.

Indeed. Crazy weather in the US atm. I went for a 2 1/2 early walk in Boston (double socked, double gloves, thermal legging under trousers, 3 layers under overcoat, only eyes and upper cheeks exposed,) on Jan 3rd, my weather app was showing -26c incl windchill. I still felt cold a day later. Had a hot bath after getting back to the hotel room at 10am.

Mates in Chicago today are reporting -25c plus windchill of another 15c

snaps · 06-01-2014 6:02pm

The gfs still keeps trying to build a scandi high, but it takes it south east near enough as soon as it appears. The ecm though seems to like the idea and keeps it sticking around, even brings it over Norway/uk. Next few days will tell. The biggest problem with a Scandinavian high now is that there is no cold over us (eastern Europe). Today was another mild sunny day here, double figures yet again, but since the sun went around 14.40 (we loose it behind a mountain) its dropped well below zero (currently -3). Things do look like cooling down from Friday here, and our local ski resorts may get a fair bit of snow as a low slides down from Finland to our east. I'm in south east poland in the beskidi mountains near zakapone.

icesnowfrost · 06-01-2014 6:48pm

Simon keelings forecast today is yet again hinting at an east to north east flow towards the end of this month going into feb. but with high pressure. Great to see cold but we need some precipitation to in the mix

patneve2 · 06-01-2014 7:19pm

snaps wrote: »

The gfs still keeps trying to build a scandi high, but it takes it south east near enough as soon as it appears. The ecm though seems to like the idea and keeps it sticking around, even brings it over Norway/uk. Next few days will tell. The biggest problem with a Scandinavian high now is that there is no cold over us (eastern Europe). Today was another mild sunny day here, double figures yet again, but since the sun went around 14.40 (we loose it behind a mountain) its dropped well below zero (currently -3). Things do look like cooling down from Friday here, and our local ski resorts may get a fair bit of snow as a low slides down from Finland to our east. I'm in south east poland in the beskidi mountains near zakapone.

Honestly it literally only takes a day for E. Europe to cool down. Still don't think that we'll get anything here in the next two weeks anyways, need the mess over Greenland to calm down.

rickdangerouss · 06-01-2014 7:43pm

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Simon keelings forecast today is yet again hinting at an east to north east flow towards the end of this month going into feb. but with high pressure. Great to see cold but we need some precipitation to in the mix

No offence to Simon or to his forecasts, I watch all the time. He was saying that the models was showing this for mid Jan. Again, nothing to do with him, just the models are pushing this possible cooler air, back and back.

patneve2 · 06-01-2014 7:45pm

ECM at 192 hrs is quite interesting...Little bit of potential in the charts these days.

dopolahpec · 06-01-2014 8:20pm

There's certainly some potential developing in the models hinting at scandanavian high pressure which may eventually bring a cold easterly in the right conditions. Not worth over analysing it but we're definitely in a period of change, after a rather locked in few weeks.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 06-01-2014 8:57pm

Dom dom dommmmmmm

Pa ElGrande · 06-01-2014 10:12pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg3OGTsL-8M

whitebriar · 06-01-2014 10:21pm

You'd need a stiff northeasterly fed right from the artic with the current temp profile upwind to the East.

The problem with a scandi high is it needs 5 to 7 days in situ to draw in air cold enough to our shores from deep enough into Russia.
The further away we have to tap to get cold enough air,the more opportunity there is for the high to slip away south east with the Atlantic toppling back in.

My point-Scandi highs and easterlies are only good if Europe is cold.It's not.
Scandi highs never stay round for longer than a week or 10 days so I wouldn't go getting hopes up.

Gonzo · 06-01-2014 10:56pm

this is possibly the first winter Ive lived through where everywhere in Europe is having a snow bunny disaster this side of winter so far, of course things will eventually change but it's amazing how even some parts of southern sweden have had not much more than a few nights of frost so far this winter!

derekon · 06-01-2014 11:06pm

Gonzo wrote: »

this is possibly the first winter Ive lived through where everywhere in Europe is having a snow bunny disaster this side of winter so far, of course things will eventually change but it's amazing how even some parts of southern sweden have had not much more than a few nights of frost so far this winter!

Hey Gonzo, it's not only Ireland and Poland that are unusually mild. A girl I work with just returned from Hungary and it was +16oc over Xmas!! Unheard of! Surely Europe is getting the opposite weather to that of the United States?

D

derekon · 06-01-2014 11:06pm

Gonzo wrote: »

this is possibly the first winter Ive lived through where everywhere in Europe is having a snow bunny disaster this side of winter so far, of course things will eventually change but it's amazing how even some parts of southern sweden have had not much more than a few nights of frost so far this winter!

Hey Gonzo, it's not only Ireland and Poland that are unusually mild. A girl I work with just returned from Hungary and it was +16oc over Xmas!! Unheard of! Surely Europe is getting the opposite weather to that of the United States?

D

Lucreto · 07-01-2014 12:42am

It looks like North America stole Winter this year. I have given up on getting decent frost.

I saw a post on reddit saying it was colder in Winnipeg on New Years Day than on Mars.

mike65 · 07-01-2014 12:47am

The GSF just cannot make its mind up - one run shows massive storms around the 19/20th, the next shows very slack high pressure.

dopolahpec · 07-01-2014 1:24am

The way they are creaming themselves and backslapping on the Netweather forum you'd swear an ice-age is locked in. Still looks far from any real snowy cold (for the UK as well as here) yet. Though there's doors opening now.

I'll be checking the morning runs with interest.

mayfly757 · 07-01-2014 2:14am

http://www.markvoganweather.com/2014/01/06/pattern-change-arctic-air-exit-north-america-enter-europe-weekend/

rickdangerouss · 07-01-2014 2:16am

mayfly757 wrote: »

http://www.markvoganweather.com/2014/01/06/pattern-change-arctic-air-exit-north-america-enter-europe-weekend/

.....

rickdangerouss · 07-01-2014 2:38am

Freezing US - Is the Polar Vortex to blame?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25630864

snaps · 07-01-2014 6:53am

The gem model is the best of the bunch. Really builds a scandi high from the weekend, allows cold air down into east Europe from this Friday with a low pressure system coming down from Sweden over poland/Ukraine. Even slips in a low pressure skirting south of ireland with high pressure to the north.
But us in the east really need to cool down first, went to bed and it was -3, woke up and its +7!