WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Loughc

So when is this cold spell due to kick in? Yesterday I heard Thurs/Fri, today I'm hearing sometime next week!

Oneiric 3

dopolahpec wrote: »

Anyone can see the models are at least trending toward some potentially very interesting weather.

In the last 3 weeks, we have seen numerous thunderstorm activity, hail, gales, floods, tidal surges etc. Not sure the chilly non-discriptness that is forecast by the current model output can be viewed as potentially more interesting than this tbh.

patneve2

Good charts, the building blocks are there. I am getting slightly more hopeful but remember, we have all seen easterlies go wrong as close as 100-130 hrs.

Larbre34

Wake me up at +36 hours. 5 seasons on here and Ive learned my lesson!

dopolahpec

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

In the last 3 weeks, we have seen numerous thunderstorm activity, hail, gales, floods, tidal surges etc. Not sure the chilly non-discriptness that is forecast by the current model output can be viewed as potentially more interesting than this tbh.

I never used the modifier 'more' so it is quite spurious to suggest there was a comparitve element with recent storms in my post. Future interesting weather doesn't negate past interesting weather.

One man's interesting hail is another man's boring hail and all to be fair

BLIZZARD7

It wont happen beacuse the US might be cold? Thats a myth and its just not true that there cant be severe cold over the eastern US and over us at the same time...

Im shocked posters cant see that if such a huge turnaround from seemingly endless zonality to A cold easterly can happen in the +168hrs timeframe that there is nothing to stop this upgrading and stopping any return to zonality after a few days...

This may or may not happen but its 70%/30% in favour of happening at the moment in my opinion. Stick with the ECM and UKMO in situations such as this, use other models only for support.

Also, all the cold pouring out of the US and into the atlantic powering up the Jet? Thats fine by me if the Jet is going to dive to our south, should provide plenty of support to High pressure to the north.

This is a developing pattern but is very much game on...




Dan

Harps

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

It wont happen beacuse the US might be cold? Thats a myth and its just not true that there cant be severe cold over the eastern US and over us at the same time...

Im shocked posters cant see that if such a huge turnaround from seemingly endless zonality to A cold easterly can happen in the +168hrs timeframe that there is nothing to stop this upgrading and stopping any return to zonality after a few days...

This may or may not happen but its 70%/30% in favour of happening at the moment in my opinion. Stick with the ECM and UKMO in situations such as this, use other models only for support.

Also, all the cold pouring out of the US and into the atlantic powering up the Jet? Thats fine by me if the Jet is going to dive to our south, should provide plenty of support to High pressure to the north.

This is a developing pattern but is very much game on...




Dan

The current forecast is for a few chilly days with a light south easterly breeze, not exactly the most exciting prospect in the world given what we've had over the past few weeks. Should the forecast change to something more noteworthy then I'm sure plenty of people will join and share your enthusiasm!

BLIZZARD7

Harps wrote: »

The current forecast is for a few chilly days with a light south easterly breeze, not exactly the most exciting prospect in the world given what we've had over the past few weeks. Should the forecast change to something more noteworthy then I'm sure plenty of people will join and share your enthusiasm!

What Model are you basing that forecast on and for what days though? The GEM and ECM would be alot colder than that come the back end of next week and while we cant see it im sure the UKMO would lead to a similar outcome... the trend is building..





Dan

Villain

All models I have looked at show a very brief cold blast lasting only a few days?

patneve2

Situation is evolving with good potential, Scandi block getting stronger...48 hours ago they were showing f all, and that's really all we can say

BLIZZARD7

Villain wrote: »

All models I have looked at show a very brief cold blast lasting only a few days?

And what were they showing for next week when you checked 2 days ago? Zilch thats what- this is an upgrading situation at the moment, dont worry about the end of a potential cold spell before its even guaranteed to start.

The GEM shows a sustained cold spell with ridging into Greenland too by the way.



Dan

Villain

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

And what were they showing for next week when you checked 2 days ago? Zilch thats what- this is an upgrading situation at the moment, dont worry about the end of a potential cold spell before its even guaranteed to start.

The GEM shows a sustained cold spell with ridging into Greenland too by the way.



Dan

Believe it when I see it at +72

TheMilkyPirate

It's fair enough saying I'll believe it when I see it or not interested until 36hrs out etc, TBH I'm in that group as well. But some people enjoy the chase (and the heartbreak) and it's clear to anyone that the charts are showing a change at the moment so a bit of light hearted conversation about it's development is harmless.

But I will stress to newer posters that what you see on the charts now is nothing spectacular at all and the chance of even that verifying I'd put at about 20%. So do not get your hopes up, We are no where near sustained cold and snow yet but it's nice to dream.

Villain

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

It's fair enough saying I'll believe it when I see it or not interested until 36hrs out etc, TBH I'm in that group as well. But some people enjoy the chase (and the heartbreak) and it's clear to anyone that the charts are showing a change at the moment so a bit of light hearted conversation about it's development is harmless.

But I will stress to newer posters that what you see on the charts now is nothing spectacular at all and the chance of even that verifying I'd put at about 20%. So do not get your hopes up, We are no where near sustained cold and snow yet but it's nice to dream.

Ah I agree but I think a bit of balance helps, we had the same hype in November see http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87485543&postcount=613 where I said:

Charts are showing a brief cold snap just outside a reliable time-frame, don't get carried away with media hype.

Those of you that are new to weather model watching prepare to be disappointed over and over again and for those of you who are veteran's you have the war wounds and should know FI is a dark place place that leaves you scarred!!

pad199207

Looking good so far on the GEM and GFS 12z somewhat better amplification. Bothersome low in the Atlantic though shouldn't be a problem

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

It wont happen beacuse the US might be cold? Thats a myth and its just not true that there cant be severe cold over the eastern US and over us at the same time...

Im shocked posters cant see that if such a huge turnaround from seemingly endless zonality to A cold easterly can happen in the +168hrs timeframe that there is nothing to stop this upgrading and stopping any return to zonality after a few days...


Dan

you maybe right, it could turn out like last year, where models underestimated
the strength of blocking to the north east, but crucially last year we did not have a near record cold stratosphere to contend with. we really need to see
some major stratospheric warming to aid height rises to our northwest, and going by M.T. cranium's forecast he obviously does not forsee this happening, or if he does, it likely doesn't do sufficient damage to the pv. Still a brief easterly would be better than nothing, and, as someone said earlier, at least the models give us something to talk about

Larbre34

pad199207 wrote: »

Looking good so far on the GEM and GFS 12z somewhat better amplification. Bothersome low in the Atlantic though shouldn't be a problem

With all that energy on the atlantic express, nothing short of a diving jet stream should discount any Low causing an upset.

Kippure

RAMP ON:D

dopolahpec

There's some woeful negativity on here. This thread would be a sorry spectacle if we weren't able to share thoughts on evolving cold potential until t+48.

Well here's the news. There's cross model agreement now on some sort of north eastern heights building within the next few days.

There's increasing probability of an easterly air-flow making contact with Ireland.

And that could eventually mean snow for many.

This is how it starts.

I get the feeling people have been burned so often they just don't want to bear looking at the sexy model output currently on show.

dacogawa

Is that a blocking high I see before me...

Kippure

OMG :eek:

dopolahpec

Kippure wrote: »

OMG :eek:

And what's even better is the undercut to get there is coming close to the reliable now

dopolahpec

Villain wrote: »

Ah I agree but I think a bit of balance helps, we had the same hype in November see http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87485543&postcount=613 where I said:

Odds are much much better just by virtue of it being January.

Ckit1

Long time lurker here...
If this rollercoaster goes well, then with it falling roughly in line with MTC's winter forecast of mid Jan cold, I'm pretty sure he has travelled back in time with an almighty almanac... ala Biff in Back to the Future II.
Enjoy the ups & downs wherever it takes us! ;-)

maquiladora

I don't see anything very exciting at the moment I'm afraid. 12Z GFS has a 2 day cold snap which doesn't even start until you get into low resolution 200+ hours, deep FI (we've seen cold snaps fail at under 120 hours many times), quickly followed by the Azores high ending it at almost as soon as it's started.

Considering these thing usually get watered down/shortened/pushed east the closer you get to 0 then it looks even less exciting.

No sign of any proper blocking.

snowstorm445

Word of caution people. While I am fairly certain we will be seeing a gradual cooling trend in the near future, we cannot assume this will automatically result in a prolonged cold spell. The wonderful synoptics we are now witnessing are still for the most part more than 5 days away, and many regular contributors will be able to remember the multiple occasions where Big Freeze style cold spells were gradually watered down until they were little more than a 24 hour colder-than-average spell, if even that, and all the hype surrounding was based on model output forecasting more than a week in advance.

I'm not putting a damper on this at all, I think its wonderful that we are seeing such a change from the zonal muck, but we must tread carefully.

Excellent GFS output this afternoon btw. Not quite there yet, but all the building blocks are falling into place. Let's hope the trend remains consistent.

snowstorm445

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't see anything very exciting at the moment I'm afraid. 12Z GFS has a 2 day cold snap which doesn't even start until you get into low resolution 200+ hours, deep FI (we've seen cold snaps fail at under 120 hours many times), quickly followed by the Azores high ending it at almost as soon as it's started.

Considering these thing usually get watered down/shortened/pushed east the closer you get to 0 then it looks even less exciting.

No sign of any proper blocking.

I'm sorry, but any reversal of the pattern which we have seen over the past fe weeks is surely to be welcomed. Yes we aren't seeing a severe Siberian blast as some would hope, but the fact that we are finally seeing an end to the bland, depressing zonality is surely to be welcomed.

So plenty to get excited about, I would argue. What remains to be seen is how this develops.

dacogawa

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't see anything very exciting at the moment I'm afraid. 12Z GFS has a 2 day cold snap which doesn't even start until you get into low resolution 200+ hours, deep FI (we've seen cold snaps fail at under 120 hours many times), quickly followed by the Azores high ending it at almost as soon as it's started.

Considering these thing usually get watered down/shortened/pushed east the closer you get to 0 then it looks even less exciting.

No sign of any proper blocking.

Got to agree with Maq here, we've been down this path before... these are just the first charts & way to far out to get too excited, though it's good to have something to look forward too I'm going to hold my optimism at 15% for another 48/72 hours, if they are the same (or better) then I'm upping to 50%

whitebriar

Those charts are mirage material.
They cannot happen if there is a renewed surge of cold air out of the state's into the Atlantic.
Nice but a figment of not enough data.

Nwps have the up escalators and the down escalators running on the same track for that period because they are normally no good on details that far out and details are important for each true step.

So don't get excited yet,let's see what's happening in the west Atlantic aswell and play a longer game here,ye will only up set yerselves.

rickdangerouss

dopolahpec wrote: »

I get the feeling people have been burned so often they just don't want to bear looking at the sexy model output currently on show.