WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

ninebeanrows

GEM is extremely tasty.

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't see anything very exciting at the moment I'm afraid. 12Z GFS has a 2 day cold snap which doesn't even start until you get into low resolution 200+ hours, deep FI (we've seen cold snaps fail at under 120 hours many times), quickly followed by the Azores high ending it at almost as soon as it's started.

Considering these thing usually get watered down/shortened/pushed east the closer you get to 0 then it looks even less exciting.

No sign of any proper blocking.

What a negative Nelly! By far the most exciting charts of the season and lots of potential.

Get your ramp on would ya :pac::pac::D

Iancar29

I sense a " Nope , not a 2010 event , NEXT PLEASE! " in here...

I echo what some are saying here , the Atlantic weather has run its course , let some cold flow in through the door , even if its just for a few days !


Where theres an easterly ... there is hope!


Just to show people how mild its been the last few weeks..

Heres my Malamute Shadow ( many of the regulars would have seen him before in my photos ) , well hes only supposed to shed in spring and summer..


This is what i got off of him today..

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't see anything very exciting at the moment I'm afraid. 12Z GFS has a 2 day cold snap which doesn't even start until you get into low resolution 200+ hours, deep FI (we've seen cold snaps fail at under 120 hours many times), quickly followed by the Azores high ending it at almost as soon as it's started.

Considering these thing usually get watered down/shortened/pushed east the closer you get to 0 then it looks even less exciting.

No sign of any proper blocking.

Hold on a minute, are we looking at the same charts? The GFS cold spell starts way before 200hrs with an easterly in full swing by +174hrs.. not low resolution. The GEM has cold uppers flooding over the country from +138hrs, hardly deep into FI! The ECM 00z also has excellent synoptics at days 6/7. Both of the UKMO runs have been brilliant too with an especially nice upstream pattern over the US at +144hrs...

Also, No sign of any proper northern blocking? What on earth are you looking for then- There is a beautiful block building to our north and north East with several models showing potential ridging into Greenland.

To WB, why not? This Jetsream is forecast to be heading towards North Africa? It can have all the power it wants in it for all I care...

Im not saying this is all going to happen but I feel like people are looking at some other set of charts... yes its in FI, but Deep FI? No. This pattern change kicks off as early as 84hrs out... Yes a shortwave may spoil it all and people are right to bear that in mind but whats shown on the models at present is incredible synoptically given this winter so far...

Roll on the ECM


Dan

dopolahpec

Some eye watering stuff churning out now in the GFS ensembles. Easterlies, beasterlies, scandi blocks and greeny highs.

★★★★★

BLIZZARD7

whitebriar wrote: »

Those charts are mirage material.
They cannot happen if there is a renewed surge of cold air out of the state's into the Atlantic.
Nice but a figment of not enough data.

Dont think this is even a worry with the US expected to be above average for next week or so...




EDIT : Ive just realised this is a 2m temp anomaly map and that you may have seen different in the 850 temps...still I dont think it will have any impact due to reasons stated in posts above.



Dan

Oneiric 3

dopolahpec wrote: »

There's some woeful negativity on here. This thread would be a sorry spectacle if we weren't able to share thoughts on evolving cold potential until t+48.

But the thing is, people are sharing their thoughts, but I guess if those thoughts don't fall in line with those which are spurred on by the herd mentality that immediately springs up when the models spew out a couple not very interesting charts then they are deemed 'negative'.

I agree with the comments that there is nothing much of interest in the latest GFS run, but let's see what the ECMWF brings, hopefully something a bit more optimistic.

BLIZZARD7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

But the thing is, people are sharing their thoughts, but I guess if those thoughts don't fall in line with those which are spurred on by the herd mentality that immediately springs up when the models spew out a couple not very interesting charts then they are deemed 'negative'.

I agree with the comments that there is nothing much of interest in the latest GFS run, but let's see what the ECMWF brings, hopefully something a bit more optimistic.

Theres nothing wrong with sharing your thoughts. Please tell me, do you like mild south westerlys or something? nothing wrong if you do, but it would explain why you can see "nothing of interest" on the latest gfs run.




Dan

Oneiric 3

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Theres nothing wrong with sharing your thoughts. Please tell me, do you like mild south westerlys or something? nothing wrong if you do, but it would explain why you can see "nothing of interest" on the latest gfs run.




Dan

I like BIG WEATHER, the wind direction or the temp is of little relevance. Now, maybe I am missing something, so maybe you could show me where the GFS is showing something that will satisfy my preference.

Just remember, temp alone is of little interest to me.

BLIZZARD7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I like BIG WEATHER, the wind direction or the temp is of little relevance. Now, maybe I am missing something, so maybe you could show me where the GFS is showing something that will satisfy my preference.

Just remember, temp alone is of little interest to me.

Okay well does Snow count as big weather? While it isnt apparent on the charts yet and there is no point in looking for it at this range, SNOW will follow if we get a strong easterly with embedded cold.

ECM looking good so far...



Dan

Oneiric 3

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Okay well does Snow count as big weather?

If we talking full on prolonged blizzards with drifting snow in storm 10 gales, rather than the occasional snow flurry giving a light and transient covering in a few localized spots, then no, it doesn't count. Not by a long shot.

rickdangerouss

I think he sums it it up very well.

patneve2

Excellent ECM at 144 hrs, text book easterly incoming. Wouldn't bother looking beyond

BLIZZARD7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

If we talking full on prolonged blizzards with drifting snow in storm 10 gales, rather than the occasional snow flurry giving a light and transient covering in a few localized spots, then no, it doesn't count. Not by a long shot.

You would be well advised to move to the Alps then, or Canada at the least.
:P

Its still all to play for, anything is possible for the rest of this winter.



Dan

ninebeanrows

ECMWF ain't too shabby tonight.

Charts have big snow event for somewhere written all over them....

Very low 850hPa temps slowly edging southwestward...

Just one solution and will be many further changes.

BLIZZARD7

Okay so at +144hrs on the ECM we have -3/-4c uppers instead of -6c's that were on the 00z, BUT it is synoptically incredible with the cold about to pour towards us from the east. This is getting closer and closer.




Dan

snowstorm445

Brilliant ECM, high pressure ridge stretching between Scandi and Greenland. You can come out from behind the sofa coldies.

patneve2

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECMWF ain't too shabby tonight.

Charts have big snow event for somewhere written all over them....

Very low 850hPa temps slowly edging southwestward...

Just one solution and will be many further changes.

With the right undercut snow could fall with relatively high uppers. All speculation at this stage though.

ninebeanrows

ECMWF also looks better longer term too. (or maybe not, heights don't get into Greenland!)

@192hrs bitter air over the country as a frontal band of snow/sleet moves southwest.

torres9kop

Is this for real lads or will it be another let down as usual?

BLIZZARD7

This chart screams heavy snow with also a much better orientation of the high to make this a cold spell rather than a snap... what a turnaround from that zonal muck. Let the upgrades continue!



Dan

whitebriar

He likes deep easterlies actually


@Dan I'm just not convinced yet that the js will dive south.You'd need a proper Atlantic ridge and greeny high to head down that road.

And of course you send storms out through Canada into the Atlantic and no greeny high and you may oil your umberella.

Take a trip back to early Jan 2007 and read the model threads and see what I mean.
Great promise at closer than this and then gone.
Rotten wet instead.

But we'll see

Sir Arthur Daley

torres9kop wrote: »

Is this for real lads or will it be another let down as usual?

Met Eireann no forecast for snow anyway.

red_bairn

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Brilliant ECM, high pressure ridge stretching between Scandi and Greenland. You can come out from behind the sofa coldies.

patneve2

whitebriar wrote: »

He likes deep easterlies actually


@Dan I'm just not convinced yet that the js will dive south.You'd need a proper Atlantic ridge and greeny high to head down that road.

And of course you send storms out through Canada into the Atlantic and no greeny high and you may oil your umberella.

Take a trip back to early Jan 2007 and read the model threads and see what I mean.
Great promise at closer than this and then gone.
Rotten wet instead.

But we'll see

Or December 2012 for that matter. But still these are interesting times

rickdangerouss

WikiHow wrote: »

Met Eireann no forecast for snow anyway.

Wait for +24Hrs, then some sleet might get on the forecast. :rolleyes:

Clonmel1000

derekon wrote: »

MT Cranium is one of the weather boards' most respected members and has been very accurate in terms of past predictions of winter weather. My understanding is that the research model he uses does suggest a chance of snow during the period 1st - 20th January with it most likely to snow between the 8th and the 12th of January.

That does not look likely now but the 12th of January is a bit away in meteorological terms.

If snow is going to fall during the indicated period, it really would have to start showing up now in the weather models pretty soon - unfortunately,at this point in time, I don't see any end to the onslaught of mild Atlantic muck. :mad:

D

the 8th of January today. Just saying like.....

TheMilkyPirate

whitebriar wrote: »

He likes deep easterlies actually

Interesting!

BLIZZARD7

whitebriar wrote: »

He likes deep easterlies actually


@Dan I'm just not convinced yet that the js will dive south.You'd need a proper Atlantic ridge and greeny high to head down that road.

And of course you send storms out through Canada into the Atlantic and no greeny high and you may oil your umberella.

Take a trip back to early Jan 2007 and read the model threads and see what I mean.
Great promise at closer than this and then gone.
Rotten wet instead.

But we'll see

Deep Easterlys you say, mmmm interesting...

I understand a cautious approach and I know all about Jan 07... I believe we have seen some sort of fundamental change to blocking patterns since then anyway as we have enjoyed a much higher success rate, but thats for another thread.

And no we dont need an atlantic ridge or greeny high to force the jet south- all we need is amplification coming out of the states.

here is an old but perfect example of the possibilities of the jet stream diving south in an otherwise mild pattern.



We all know what followed this a week or so later...



Dan

sully2010

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

the 8th of January today. Just saying like.....

Ah now here...its looking like hes only a week out with that prediction, what more do you want!? And pretty bang on with with his winter forecast overall.